Polling Obama
The question that Peter Robinson poses below – why, if there is such a sense of crisis in the country, does Barack Obama remain popular – is a good one. Part of the answer is that it depends on which polls you look at, and, of course, it depends on what question you ask.
For example, if you ask Americans whether they agree with Barack Obama, Rasmussen reports that only 24% answer with a yes. If you ask whether they approve of what the President is doing, only 24% strongly approve while 36% strongly disapprove. Only 31% expect the economy to improve within the next year – while 43% do not believe that it will. Fifty-four percent of Americans believe the President is more liberal than they are – while 13% believe that he is more conservative; and when he is pitted against a generic Republican, he loses 45 to 42%. When you pit Obama against particular Republicans, most polls show him ahead. But the most recent ABC/Washington Post poll shows Romney beating Obama. Apart from Sarah Palin, he is the only Republican that most of those polled have ever heard of.
Part of the story, as Shelby Steele has pointed out, is that Barack Obama is our first black President, and most Americans want to like him. That certainly gives him an edge – but it does not mean that the abject failure of his economic policy has escaped their notice, and it does not mean that they will vote for more of the same. As Rasmussen’s numbers make clear, the Republicans own the issues.
Housing has fallen in value further than it fell during the Great Depression. The percentage of the long-term unemployed is greater than during the Great Depression. The official rate of unemployment is 9.1%, and the real rate – once you factor in those who have given up looking – is much higher. Moreover, the Republicans have a plan for getting us out of this mess, and Barack Obama has none. His initial budget was defeated in the Senate 97-0, and he has not even bothered to present a second budget. He has, in effect, punted. Of course, as I said in the podcast, you cannot beat somebody with nobody. But Barack Obama is doing a very good imitation of nobody these days. If the Republicans can find a real somebody – and you all know who I think that is – they will win.
There is one other fact that needs attention, and it is a big one. We in the United States outsource politics. We elect a President, Senators, and Congressmen, and we leave public business to them. Once every couple of years, we ask ourselves whether we need a correction of course. If the sense of crisis is not at the moment white-hot, it is because we do not have to make a decision for something like sixteen months and could not do so sooner if we wanted to. Come this time next June the fat will be in the fryer.
Could the current President escape from the doldrums? Not, I think, if Americans are focusing their attention on domestic affairs. But if he were to bomb Iran . . . .
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Mar '11
Re: Polling Obama
Please Dr Rahe do not give a desperate administration any ideas. They are already grasping for straws with full mainstream media cover.
Edited on Jun 8, 2011 at 5:01pmNov '10
Re: Polling Obama
Not a comment, but rather an appreciation. I have grown very fond of your posts, Dr. Rahe, and am grateful to have found you (among others) here on Ricochet. You always bring your straight forward style, clear prose, and often the historical and political philosophical or political economic perspective to your posts. Reading your posts has become one of my little indulgences. Thank you, sir. I am in your debt and giving to friends my unqualified recommendation to read your posts.
Sep '10
Re: Polling Obama
If the press was not in the tank for Obama, then I believe his numbers would be lower. When did the press start criticizing Carter? I can't remember when he gave his infamous "malaise" speech and when he failed to finish the race he entered. It would be interesting to see a graph of Carter's poll numbers. I hope you are correct that the closer the election comes into focus, then the more scrutiny the president will receive from the voting public. And hopefully the Republicans will rally around a personality whose time has come.
Dec '10
Re: Polling Obama
Seems, though the numbers are slightly lower, the headlines have definitely turned over at CNN.
Apr '11
Re: Polling Obama
I strongly second that statement. Ricochet certainly has a premiere thinker with Dr. Rahe (well done Rob!). It is sort of obvious to note the strong similarity of clarity and intellectual force of Dr. Rahe with VDH.
Sep '10
Re: Polling Obama
I just went checked out Carter's demise. He gave the "malaise" speech on July 15, 1979 and failed to finish his first road race the following September. Add to that Kennedy challenging him in the primaries, his presidency was virtually over. Will Obama suffer a similar demise?
Oct '10
Re: Polling Obama
What about the "Wilder Effect," named after Virgina Democrat Governor (who is black) that polled consistently higher across all pre-election polls, yet come election time he lost?
I think when the questions are impersonal policy-oriented questions (right track/wrong track, handling of economy, handling of foreign policy), people give their true beliefs and opinions. But when asked about the approval of the first black President of the United States, they hedge towards the positive so that they don't seem like a racist to the pollster on the other end of the phone.
Sad.
(I cross-posted this comment from Peter Robinson's post because it seemed to fit here, as well).
Edited on Jun 9, 2011 at 10:22amRe: Polling Obama
Ken Sweeney: What about the "Wilder Affect," named after Virgina Democrat Governor (who is black) that polled consistently higher across all pre-election polls, yet come election time he lost?
I think when the questions are impersonal policy-oriented questions (right track/wrong track, handling of economy, handling of foreign policy), people give their true beliefs and opinions. But when asked about the approval of the first black President of the United States, they hedge towards the positive so that they don't seem like a racist to the pollster on the other end of the phone.
Sad.
(I cross-posted this comment from Peter Robinson's post because it seemed to fit here, as well). · Jun 8 at 5:40pm
It does, indeed, fit in both places, and you may be right. Reagan always beat the polls by 5%. This time, Obama may poll better than he does in the actual vote. It will be interesting to watch.
May '11
Re: Polling Obama
I posted on another thread that there was a photo of a yard sign on the internet last week that read: "If you voted for Obama in 2008 to prove you weren't a racist, who are you going to vote for in 2012 to prove you aren't an idiot?" That will offend a lot of people but I think there is truth there.
Edited on Jun 8, 2011 at 7:01pmJan '11
Re: Polling Obama
I continue to become more skeptical of all this polling that goes on. While I make a point to look at the first couple' layers of the onion': registered vs likely voters, % Democrats & Republican, sample size (margin of error is a joke designed to give the poll an aura of accuracy) - I'd like to see much more back-up included as an addendum with these pools - show us the actual questions & order. Are answers from a list of options or offered up without prompting, what area code/zip codes of the responders, what congressional districts. How much would a likely voter poll differ from one of actual registered voters?
At this stage of the primary process - how much of this is fog vs closer o an election when things start to gel?
What would President Dewey think?
Re: Polling Obama
It is nearly all fog at this point -- especially with regard to the Republican nomination process.
I notice this morning that CNN's poll has registered a 6% drop for Obama. According to them, 48% approve and 48% disapprove.
Jul '10
Re: Polling Obama
I've always held that there are basically two different types of polls.
The first type is a poll that takes a look at where the pulblic actually is. These polls generally do not get much media attention because they are taken privately and are an actual market research tool. They often ask the Real questions that are meant to find out what the genuine mood of the population is. These polls tend to garner media attention only within weeks of an election.
The second type of poll is a score card on how well the media is disinforming the public. They generally feature loaded questions and lack any followon for the context in which people's answers should be viewed. (i.e. Q: Do you approve of what congress is doing? A: No Conclusion Printed: Most americans disapprove of the Cuts Congress is Making! Actual Opinion: 1/2 = No, they aren't cutting enough. 1/2=No, they're cutting too much.)
Jul '10
Re: Polling Obama
Here you are.
Dec '10
Re: Polling Obama
Polarization continues, from RassmussenPolls:
Obama: Strongly Approve: 23%... Strongly Disapprove 39%... Approval Index: -16... Total Approval: 47%...