Plan B—Civilizational Edition
So, my iPad has just received Mark Steyn’s After America, and I read with interest Dave Carter’s “Where’s Our Ark?” yesterday. My question is much like Dave’s with a practical spin.
As one of nature’s pessimists, I am a sucker for a good doom-and-gloom apocalypse, though as a historian, I have to note that real collapses are comparatively rare. Whimpers, not bangs, punctuate most termini. But as a parent, I have to care about providing for the future of my kids which forces a degree of anti-fatalism on one.
So, assuming arguendo that we’re either going off a cliff or late-stage terminally decadent, one has to ask what next? As a patriot, one would hate to leave the ship, sinking though it might be, but would there be a safe haven in a post-American world? Would it admit folks like us? Or does one try and slowly reconstitute a liberal order somewhere hereabouts, like Benedictine monks clearing trees in the early Middle Ages? Would there be a realistic chance of creating and protecting such a polity, however small?
These concerns are pretty fantastic and more properly stuck in a sci-fi novel, but given the doom-mongering afoot, I just wonder what the mongers plan to do next. I look forward to reading Steyn's doubtlessly entertaining apocalypse, but if he doesn't say what one does next, would someone mind asking him on the podcast one of these days?
Because, seriously, I gotta get in shape if I have to join the Morrow Project and fit in one of those tiny cryo-sleep tubes…
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Dec '10
Re: Plan B—Civilizational Edition
Apparently Australia is the place to be if the US of A goes under. I mean every single living thing on the continent is trying to kill you and there is no First Amendment, but if you can look past those two issues its suppose to be the place to be.
Edited on Aug 8, 2011 at 1:11pmDec '10
Re: Plan B—Civilizational Edition
Switzerland is unlikely to let you immigrate.
If you're Jewish, you can become an Israeli under the Law of Return. Israel may not survive in the post-American world, but it will go down fighting. I actually think it stands a good chance of survival, simply because it has nuclear deterrence and newfound energy independence.
Mark Steyn probably has the best perspective on Canada and whether surviving there is worth it (what with the speech police and socialized medicine and all).
Aug '10
Re: Plan B—Civilizational Edition
If we're delving into the traditional end-of-society conservative strain, I get to pull out some old fashioned conservative American diatribes.
The relevant jeremiad here is Albert Jay Nock's excellent 1936 article Isaiah's Job. The upshot is that from time to time "the masses" will be liquidated wholesale and civilization will start anew. But there is always The Remnant who survives and rebuilds society; they survive not because of their social or economic class, but because of their pre-crash education and preparedness.
Nock claims it is this Remnant that should be the target of the voices crying in the wilderness or standing athwart history yelling STOP, instead of the masses. A mission to save the maximum possible number of people is futile; the goal should be to ensure whoever is left would be the best possible candidates to re-found society. As such, one's noblest priority is educating oneself (and your family) and preparing to survive, not trying to run away or save everyone else.
...Not the most cheerful mission to contemplate. But Nock has history on his side of the argument.
Oct '10
Re: Plan B—Civilizational Edition
Actually, most of us are still in the best place, even after it all goes under. A very large geographical area with governments in a state of virtual collapse, and Mr. Shotgun as your true best friend isn't all that far removed from much of the world right now, and not so different than the US a hundred and fifty years ago.
The key is to be as self contained as possible, and comfortable with risk. After years of bouncing around the third world, including a few years in pre-war Afghanistan, a sense of purpose and a willingness to endure occasional fear and discomfort can get you by.
Just do not kid yourself with the fantasy that things will not be very much worse than now in your future. Australia sounds good until you remember that the Chinese will have no serious opposition when going after their resources. Without America, there will be no safety. Get that into your thinking, and you can make it.
Re: Plan B—Civilizational Edition
Do not be a pessimist. It is in our power to turn this around, and Barack Obama is doing everything he can to persuade our compatriots to put the friends of liberty in power. Just be patient. The political turnaround began in 2009. It yielded its first fruits in 2010, and we will win and win big in 2012.
Re: Plan B—Civilizational Edition
Don't worry about me, Professor. My pessimism is a matter of temperament, not a conclusion of analysis. I think, as of today, you're probably right. Thereafter, the next test is, can a Republican government-austerity/general-prosperity agenda succeed and remain popular? I think the evidence of the 1920s (re the former and latter) and 1980s (with regard to the latter) suggests it can, though the vast legion of recipients of government largesse have to eventually (at least in part) be convinced to buy in to the idea. Hope, not fear, all that. Either way, it'll be a fun ride…
May '11
Re: Plan B—Civilizational Edition
Where are folks downloading the book onto their iPads? I have tried Amazon a couple of times but the Kindle version remains "unavailable." Any help would be greatly appreciated as I am excited to read this book.
Dec '10
Re: Plan B—Civilizational Edition
Liberty being anomalous in the human condition, I think some consideration must be given to why it flourished here in the first place. The almost impenetrable oceans surrounding the colonies and the backstop of wilderness provided the seeds of liberty an incubator in which to sprout and grow. By the time the rest of humanity attempted to put these free people back in their place it was too late. I do not see any such physical barrier to protect a remnant from the powerful or the hordes if civilization comes crashing down.
Dec '10
Re: Plan B—Civilizational Edition
Best to expect the best and prepare for the worst.
The most revealing graph I've seen recently was the graph of total private employment during the last couple of decades, color-coded for the periods when Republicans controlled both houses of Congress, when Democrats controlled both, and when control was split. Turns out that the graph falls when Democrats have control of both houses, and rises when Republicans do. But the public doesn't associate the 2007-2008 drop in employment with Pelosi and Reid: they blame it on Bush.
Will the American people get fooled again? Is there any good reason to believe they won't?
Aug '10
Re: Plan B—Civilizational Edition
I'm with you Professor. We need to start with the cities and counties. They need to be "right-sized" and respondent to the core mission of their communities. Get them off the federal teat. Empower the communities to revitalize their churches, decentralize the United Way even further. Entitlement reform will be a wrenching experience, the politicization of that is democrat milk.They will want to curdle that .
Nov '10
Re: Plan B—Civilizational Edition
I yield to no one in my pessimism for America's outlook. But I say we stand and fight. We may be scroomed, but we owe it to the county that's been so good to us go come out swinging.
Mar '11
Re: Plan B—Civilizational Edition
Collapse is the wrong way to think of it. A more practical and I would say realistic view is a dramatic loss of prosperity and wealth, not a destroyed nation but a significantly poorer one. Think of America à la Third World and that probably gives us the best mental model of the future, I've often viewed what occurred in 2002 Argentina when they defaulted on their debt as a likely scenario.
My own safe haven thinking is that, despite the best efforts of our leaders, federalism is not yet dead in this nation. Life will become much more difficult, but some states will ride out this storm much better than others. Hmm, now where are we seeing actual jobs still being created in the midsts of all our woes...
Edited on Aug 8, 2011 at 3:22pmApr '11
Re: Plan B—Civilizational Edition
Probably a good idea to skip London and the UK in general unless they can somehow rejuvenate Dame Thatcher for another go round. How long do think these riots would last with her in her prime?
The latest photos from riotcity, night 3:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2023874/LONDON-RIOTS-David-Cameron-returns-home-police-face-gangs-petrol-bombs.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2023932/London-riots-Powerless-police-let-mob-seize-streets-loot-start-fires-violence-spreads.html
Dec '10
Re: Plan B—Civilizational Edition
Palin agrees:
Our economic news is disheartening and the task before can seem daunting, but we must not lose our sense of optimism. People look around today and may see only the negative. They see a culture and a nation in decline, but that’s not who we are! America must regain its optimistic pioneering spirit again. Our founders declared that “we were born the heirs of freedom.” We are the heirs of those who froze with Washington at Valley Forge, held the line at Gettysburg, freed the slaves, carved a nation out of the wilderness... and made America the strongest and most prosperous nation in the history of mankind. By God, we will not squander what has been given us!
Our destiny is still in our own hands if we pick ourselves up and act responsibly and quickly. We must all get involved. Concerned Americans must seek truth, work harder than ever, and be willing to sacrifice today to ensure freedom tomorrow. Please get engaged in 2012 electoral politics and support experienced, vetted, pro-free market fiscal conservatives who will dedicate all to preserving our Republic and protecting our Constitution.
Dec '10
Re: Plan B—Civilizational Edition
Roberto:
My own safe haven thinking is that, despite the best efforts of our leaders, federalism is not yet dead in this nation. Life will become much more difficult, but some states will ride out this storm much better than others. Hmm, now where are we seeing actual jobs still being created in the midsts of all our woes...
We need to build a railroad of Rearden metal from Texas to North Dakota - the two states where job creation is taking place. (Maybe with a spur to Wisconsin.)
Aug '10
Re: Plan B—Civilizational Edition
Every American who can should visit Ireland as soon as possible to assess its suitability as a Post-Obamalypse bolt-hole.Bring your golf clubs while you're at it.And dollars; lots of them.
Dec '10
Re: Plan B—Civilizational Edition
I, personally, will be voting with my feet, that will remain planted here.
However, to address the question, I interviewed with a very wealthy family that had chosen diffferently and needed some staff to facilitate their move to Panama. They are much more savvy about world markets, banking laws, taxation, etc., than I am. For the record, this family was from Texas and considered that state to be a lost cause.
I would never have guessed their answer, but there it is.
Re: Plan B—Civilizational Edition
Viator: Probably a good idea to skip London and the UK in general unless they can somehow rejuvenate Dame Thatcher for another go round. How long do think these riots would last with her in her prime?
The latest photos from riotcity, night 3:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2023874/LONDON-RIOTS-David-Cameron-returns-home-police-face-gangs-petrol-bombs.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2023932/London-riots-Powerless-police-let-mob-seize-streets-loot-start-fires-violence-spreads.html · Aug 8 at 4:13pm
They lasted for years. In her prime.
Apr '11
Re: Plan B—Civilizational Edition
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
Viator: Probably a good idea to skip London and the UK in general unless they can somehow rejuvenate Dame Thatcher for another go round. How long do think these riots would last with her in her prime?
The latest photos from riotcity, night 3:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2023874/LONDON-RIOTS-David-Cameron-returns-home-police-face-gangs-petrol-bombs.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2023932/London-riots-Powerless-police-let-mob-seize-streets-loot-start-fires-violence-spreads.html · Aug 8 at 4:13pm
They lasted for years. In her prime. · Aug 9 at 3:04am
You're saying street battles between the government and unions organized by the hard left during a power struggle is the same as random looting with a little arson thrown in?
Re: Plan B—Civilizational Edition
Viator
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
Viator: Probably a good idea to skip London and the UK in general unless they can somehow rejuvenate Dame Thatcher for another go round. How long do think these riots would last with her in her prime?
The latest photos from riotcity, night 3:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2023874/LONDON-RIOTS-David-Cameron-returns-home-police-face-gangs-petrol-bombs.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2023932/London-riots-Powerless-police-let-mob-seize-streets-loot-start-fires-violence-spreads.html · Aug 8 at 4:13pm
They lasted for years. In her prime. · Aug 9 at 3:04am
You're saying street battles between the government and unions organized by the hard left during a power struggle is the same as random looting with a little arson thrown in? · Aug 9 at 4:25am
See my post above.