Pipelines and Foreign Policy
What could be more exciting than spending a Sunday morning with the latest issue of Turkish Policy Quarterly? (Highly recommended, by the way.) Anyone who wants to make sense of Turkish foreign policy should consider this article: Energy and Turkey's Foreign Policy: State Strategy, Regional Cooperation and Private Sector Involvement.
Turkey’s energy strategy and its link to foreign policy initiatives entails a “high risk, high gain” position. If domestic flaws take place with extreme dependence on Russia, this may turn Turkey into Russia’s energy satellite. This is exactly what Turkey is trying to avoid by establishing energy trade with countries in the Caspian and the Middle East. Turkey will take most of the advantage at the supply and transport sides by including additional oil and gas from the Caspian and the Middle East at beneficiary terms. In fact, Turkey’s growing relations with countries such as Azerbaijan, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon make sense from this energy outlook.
It's slightly outdated now: No one can figure out quite what Turkey's up to in breaking its contract with Gazprom. Advanced bazaar tactics? Voice of Russia--for what that's worth--reports that now Blue Stream 2 is "under discussion."
By the way, here's a good piece about the Mediterranean gas battle in the Financial Post.
For those of you asking yourself, "So what should our policy toward Turkey be?" I commend to you this article by Svante Cornell. I have no idea what NATO is really saying to Turkey, but this public statement by Anders Fogh Rasmussen is exactly wrong:
Asked about Turkey’s warning that it might send military ships toward Cyprus, which is exploring for natural gas in the Mediterranean, as is Israel, Mr. Rasmussen said that “NATO as an organization is not going to interfere with these disputes,” while adding, “I do not envisage armed conflict in the eastern part of the Mediterranean.”
If that's the message that's been given in private, too, it recalls April Glaspie's infamous assurance to Saddam Hussein that we don't take sides in border disputes. The message should be unequivocal: Start a war in the Eastern Mediterranean and we throw you to the neighborhood wolves.
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Mar '11
Re: Pipelines and Foreign Policy
Thanks, Claire, for the interesting post and the great links. Still going through the bigger policy analyses, but that piece by Lawrence Solomon in the Financial Post was fascinating.
Re: Pipelines and Foreign Policy
You're welcome! By the way, Silk Road Studies is another place to find excellent, serious analyses of the situation.
Mar '11
Re: Pipelines and Foreign Policy
Turkish battleships harassing Israeli freighters already? If this is true, it could get very bad very fast...
Turkish warships harass Israeli freighters. Israeli missile boats off Cyprus.
Caveat: it's from Debka, which I have found often reliable but sometimes not.
Re: Pipelines and Foreign Policy
Heshmon: Turkish battleships harassing Israeli freighters already? If this is true, it could get very bad very fast...
Turkish warships harass Israeli freighters. Israeli missile boats off Cyprus.
Caveat: it's from Debka, which I have found often reliable but sometimes not. · Oct 2 at 3:01am
Heshmon, Debka simply isn't reliable. At all. I treat it pretty much as I do Today's Zaman. It's approach is fairly similar: half truths, one or two occasional scoops that allow it to say "We know stuff," and a ton of simply misleading nonsense and pure invention.
Re: Pipelines and Foreign Policy
On the other hand, this report is most interesting. For many reasons. Chances of anyone asking, "What exactly is this about?"
Apr '11
Re: Pipelines and Foreign Policy
Speaking of Today's Zaman, but reported by JP. Are diplomatic and military games of chicken afoot?
"Today's Zaman, citing accounts in Turkish daily Vatan and Greek Cypriot daily Phileleftheros, reported that two F-15 jets took off from Tel Aviv and flew through the airspace of both Greek Cyprus and Turkish-controlled northern Cyprus. The jets reportedly ignored warnings from officials of Turkish Cyprus.
According to the report, Turkey sent two F-16 jets to track the Israeli F-15s, which subsequently returned to Israel.
The report added that an Israeli military helicopter flew over the Turkish seismic research ship the Piri Reis, exploring for gas off of Cyprus's southern coast."
Last week, US-based Noble Energy started drilling offshore on behalf of Cyprus in an area termed Block 12, south of the island. Turkey has pledged to drill for gas on behalf of Turkish Cypriots unless the Greek Cypriots stop.
"If the Greek Cypriots agree to stop, we'll stop too. But if they insist on proceeding, they know very well Turkey's attitude," Turkey's minister for European Affairs, Egemen Bagis, said."
http://www.jpost.com/International/Article.aspx?id=240051
Apr '11
Re: Pipelines and Foreign Policy
"the return of history."
the Battle of Preveza and the Long Shadow of Lepanto
"Why is this relevant? The 1500s were not, to put it mildly, a politically correct time. Why bring up all this unpleasant history now -- in the 21st century?
Well, we didn't. The Turkish prime minister just did. What in the world was he thinking?"
http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/10/erdogan_and_the_long_shadow_of_lepanto.html
Re: Pipelines and Foreign Policy
Viator: "the return of history."
the Battle of Preveza and the Long Shadow of Lepanto
"Why is this relevant? The 1500s were not, to put it mildly, a politically correct time. Why bring up all this unpleasant history now -- in the 21st century?
Well, we didn't. The Turkish prime minister just did. What in the world was he thinking?"
http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/10/erdogan_and_the_long_shadow_of_lepanto.html · Oct 2 at 5:53am
That link isn't working here--may I ask you to check it?
Apr '11
Re: Pipelines and Foreign Policy
Try this..
http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/10/erdogan_and_the_long_shadow_of_lepanto.html
May '10
Re: Pipelines and Foreign Policy
I seem to recall from the deepest recesses of my memory banks that Turkey has the good fortune to sit on key water resources for the surrounding region. Has it been using these resources to its benefit (especially towards Syria, Iraq and Iran)?