Pew: Romney Rides a 12-Point Swing
The Pew Research Center is out with a new post-debate poll.
The results are dramatically different than their poll in September. Then, Obama was up 51-43 with likely voters. Now Romney is up 49-45 with the same cohort.
And in September, Obama had an 18-point lead over Romney when it came to female voters. Now, they're tied.
More from the report:
More generally, the poll finds Romney’s supporters far more engaged in the campaign than they were in September. Fully 82% say they have given a lot of thought to the election, up from 73% in September. The new survey finds that Romney supporters hold a 15-point advantage over Obama backers on this key engagement measure. Supporters on both sides were about even in September.
Coming out of the debate, Mitt Romney’s personal image has improved. His favorable rating has hit 50% among registered voters for the first time in Pew Research Center surveys and has risen five points since September. At the same time, Obama’s personal favorability rating has fallen from 55% to 49%.
I'm sure Romney supporters are elated with this news, but it's also just a fantastic reminder of how volatile these polls are and how the next few weeks should be a crazy ride.
But if you'd like to review some of the Romney obituaries that ran in the media in the last month, no one will begrudge you.
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Jun '10
Re: Pew: Romney Rides a 12-Point Swing
But that is unpossible! Debates don't change anything. The internet doesn't lie.
Aug '10
Re: Pew: Romney Rides a 12-Point Swing
Pollsters are beginning to get real as they realize that the SS Obama is taking on water fast and they don't want to look like homers for a lost cause.
Sep '10
Re: Pew: Romney Rides a 12-Point Swing
Anecdotally, they phoned one fellow named Matthews and he just kept repeating "Rosebud" into the phone.
Kids.
Sep '12
Re: Pew: Romney Rides a 12-Point Swing
As I posted over on the Member feed, look at the sample on this poll. Equal Ds and Rs. Is it a wonder Romney is actually leading when a poll isn't skewed D +7?
Sep '10
Re: Pew: Romney Rides a 12-Point Swing
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.:
But if you'd like to review some of the Romney obituaries that ran in the media in the last month, no one will begrudge you.
My wife and I watched the last two SNL episodes on DVR last night. Aside from the tissue-soft kid glove treatment they gave Obama in the debate sketch, I was struck by the Weekend Update from 9/29 in which Seth Myers repeated almost every delusional leftist meme regarding the perceived implosion of the Romney campaign. He appeared to actually believe that Romney was going to end up like McCain in 2008.
Jan '11
Re: Pew: Romney Rides a 12-Point Swing
What does this tell me?
Polls are fickle things.
May '10
Re: Pew: Romney Rides a 12-Point Swing
I just want to say that this is when/how dubious pollsters--most of them--launder their worthless polling--I call it The FLIP. Romney was never down that much (or at all), and he isn't that much up now. And no one can prove I'm correct/that they were wrong...
Re: Pew: Romney Rides a 12-Point Swing
Mittmentum!
Aug '10
Re: Pew: Romney Rides a 12-Point Swing
That's what I mean by "gettin' real", Evan. These guys can stop skewing the polls anytime they want and it appears they finally stopped doing it.
Edited on October 8, 2012 at 10:55pmJun '10
Re: Pew: Romney Rides a 12-Point Swing
I stole this idea from someone else (I think it was Rob on the last podcast): Obama's defeat and Romney's emergence has, in effect, given people permission to vote against Obama; and now, like Andy McCarthy, they can vote for Romney.
Dec '10
Re: Pew: Romney Rides a 12-Point Swing
Also interesting is the fact that Romney's standing in the RCP average is now higher than at any other time (47.4%). Obama is just off His (sorry, 'his') peak of ~49%. The numbers seem to suggest that Romney is indeed attracting new (i.e. previously undecided) voters, while Obama has plateaued. Good news, if true, especially since we're into the final month where voters finally lock in.
Dec '10
Re: Pew: Romney Rides a 12-Point Swing
Frozen with the alternate (though not mutually exclusive) explanation for the numbers I just referenced.
Frozen Chosen
That's what I mean by "gettin' real", Evan. These guys can stop skewing the polls anytime they want and it appears they are finally doing it. · 0 minutes ago
Re: Pew: Romney Rides a 12-Point Swing
Actually, I think they may have oversampled Republicans for this poll. If you were skeptical of previous polls, you should be just as skeptical now -- until you find out the actual D/R split, etc.
I'm not saying this poll is meaningless, just that it's always worth retaining skepticism.
Re: Pew: Romney Rides a 12-Point Swing
Mark Belling Fan
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.:
But if you'd like to review some of the Romney obituaries that ran in the media in the last month, no one will begrudge you.
My wife and I watched the last two SNL episodes on DVR last night. Aside from the tissue-soft kid glove treatment they gave Obama in the debate sketch, I was struck by the Weekend Update from 9/29 in which Seth Myers repeated almost every delusional leftist meme regarding the perceived implosion of the Romney campaign. He appeared to actually believe that Romney was going to end up like McCain in 2008. · 3 minutes ago
I only saw this sketch mocking MSNBC/Al Sharpton/Chris Matthews. A little weak, but unexpected nonetheless.
Apr '11
Re: Pew: Romney Rides a 12-Point Swing
So much for the pollsters trying to cover the tsunami that is on its way.
Too many Obama voters suffereing from PTDP...Post Traumatic Debate Performance.
Mar '11
Re: Pew: Romney Rides a 12-Point Swing
Debates don't change anything. Real people haven't moved. Sample people have moved... in ways convenient to storytelling and ad selling.
Mar '11
Re: Pew: Romney Rides a 12-Point Swing
So is Mr Long manic or depressive at the moment?
Jun '10
Re: Pew: Romney Rides a 12-Point Swing
Obama will not be asleep next week. His simply waking up will swing the polls a couple points the other way.
It's quite the tragedy that likely the very future of the American Experiment seems in the hands of some of the nation's most fickle and lowest-information voters.
Too cynical?
Apr '11
Re: Pew: Romney Rides a 12-Point Swing
Don't let him breath, Mitt! Work the body. Does any one know if Mitt has unleashed the add deludge? I live in IL and do not watch much TV on cable. Cause now is the time to turn up the pressure.
Apr '11
Re: Pew: Romney Rides a 12-Point Swing
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.: Actually, I think they may have oversampled Republicans for this poll. If you were skeptical of previous polls, you should be just as skeptical now -- until you find out the actual D/R split, etc.
I'm not saying this poll is meaningless, just that it's always worth retaining skepticism. ·
I agree. Other polls aren't showing the same thing; it looks like noise to me. What the polls are showing, though, is that it's close. This makes it more likely that the election will be decided by those people who engage in efforts that will actually turn out significant numbers of GOP voters in swing states (i.e., calling, doorstepping if you live in the right states and don't feel up to calling, donating to the RNC, and/ or working mall booths and the like if you're not a fan of doorstepping either), or that actually persuade significant numbers of undecideds (donating to the campaign).
Or you could say that the election will be decided by those who elect not to. Obviously, those with no time on their hands or with other iron clad reasons for not volunteering are not "choosing".