Paul Ryan's Budget: The Most Important Domestic Proposal of our Lifetimes
Now that Rep. Paul Ryan, chairman of the House Budget Committee, has presented the GOP's budget proposal for fiscal year 2012, I've been waiting for David Limbaugh to admit that the document is so splendid--so precisely what we had all been hoping for in every regard--that we
should put right out of our minds any thoughts of muddying matters by shutting down the government. Brother David having apparently been detained, though, I thought I'd say a word.
Paul Ryan's document is historic. By cutting more than $4 trillion from the budget over the next decade, it exceeds the recommendations of the budget commission President Obama established (and then ignored). For that matter, it exceeds the fondest hopes of nearly everyone I know, including the most ardent members of the Tea Party. The budget cuts discretionary spending, as it must. But it takes on--forthrightly, unapologetically, and systematically--the major entitlement programs, especially Medicaid.
In a word, this budget represents the first concerted, credible effort to shrink the federal government since the birth of the welfare state seven decades ago. But not only that. The document--and this is a critical matter, both as to policy and to the politics of the day--doesn't merely shrink and slash. It isn't merely concerned with balancing the books. It promotes growth.
Here's the way Ryan described the budget this past weekend on Fox News Sunday:
By cutting spending, reforming entitlements and growing our economy. Look, we intend
to not only cut discretionary spending and put caps on spending, you have to address the drivers of our debt. ...
Now the good thing we have going for us is we have time to fix this problem. So the kinds of reform we're going to be putting out there won't make changes to people who are already in or near retirement. If you're 55 or older, you won't see changes. You won't have to reorient your lives around these things.
But if we keep kicking the can down the road and keep making more empty promises to people, then we'll have the European kind of pain and austerity. Then you have cuts to current seniors, tax increases that slow down your economy.
By addressing the drivers of the debt now, we do it in a gradual way. ... And we are going to put out a plan that gets our debt on downward trajectory and gets us to a point of giving our next generation a debt-free nation. That in and of itself will help us grow the economy today and create jobs.
The GOP budget represents the most consequential domestic policy proposal in our lifetimes. Republicans, the Tea Party, conservatives, libertarians--we should drop all other fights. This is where to make our stand.
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Dec '10
Re: Paul Ryan's Budget: The Most Important Domestic Proposal of our Lifetimes
Peter Robinson
I can only speak for myself, of course, David,...
1)...
2) ...
After being against you since this whole debate started I am now firmly in your camp Peter. Paul Ryan has been talking about talking about his budget forever. In my mind, until today, that's all it was, just more Republican lip service. The fact that it now exist, and goes as far as it does, makes all the difference in the world.
@Ken Sweeney: I don't know how else to say it that hasn't already been said. Its not about whether you believe $31 billion is a big deal, its whether the Tea Party and other "fiscal hawks" in the Republican base see it as a big deal and if they will stick with the Republicans if the Republicans cave on the 2011 budget and the debt ceiling. Before Paul Ryan's budget became real I would have said No. Now? Now I think this budget gives the Republicans the cred to be flexible now to store up energy for the 2012 budget latter.
Re: Paul Ryan's Budget: The Most Important Domestic Proposal of our Lifetimes
I believe that few people are truly conversant with the numbers involved. When I say few people I mean to include even many congressmen and an even greater percentage of commentators. I say that after having gone to the CBO website and actually studied the numbers a few weeks ago. I meant to do a post on that, but want some clarification before I do, because even after studying them I have some questions.
My point is, though, that I have had full confidence for some time that Ryan is intimately conversant with the numbers and that his proposal would be dramatic enough to save the nation fiscally within a reasonable amount of time. He knows that entitlements are big, but so is growth, or the lack of it. If you study the numbers you will find that a great portion of the increase in Obama's deficits so far compared to Bush's in every year save 2008 is related to the recession. That doesn't excuse him, though, because his policies are growth smothering AND obscenely wasteful at the same time. But I knew Ryan had a comprehensive view & that his budget would include a growth component.
Dec '10
Re: Paul Ryan's Budget: The Most Important Domestic Proposal of our Lifetimes
I don't think we were wrong to fight. I don't think its impossible to win all three of the budget battles, I just don't see the point anymore. Why risk ourselves fighting for 2011 and the dept ceiling when wining the 2012 budget battle will accomplish everything winning the 2011 budget/debt ceiling fight would and much much more? Paul Ryans budget will show the public and the base that the Republican party is once again the party of limited government and at the same time save so much money that 2011 budget savings will be statistically insignificant. If the Ryan budget buys the Republican party enough goodwill from the base to survive compromising in order to move ahead to that battle, what is gained by not doing so?
What do we gain from fighting now that we wouldn't get if we just rushed to the 2012 fight?
Dec '10
Re: Paul Ryan's Budget: The Most Important Domestic Proposal of our Lifetimes
Nyadnar17
What do we gain from fighting now that we wouldn't get if we just rushed to the 2012 fight? · Apr 4 at 8:21pm
CREDIBILITY.
Know how to gain a reputation as a fearsome fighter whom your opponents should think twice before going to the mat against? FIGHT. And whether you win or lose those fights, MAKE SURE YOU DRAW BLOOD.
On the macro scale, this is called making your enemy pay for every inch of ground he gains. In that manner, once he reaches your city walls -- your last line of defense -- he will be tired and weakened and unsure of victory, unsure that victory will be worth the price you will exact.
But if you decide to simply fall back to your last line of defense, you will find yourself encircled and besieged by a fresh, well-fed and eager enemy. And it will be you who wonders how long your reserves and morale will last.
Dec '10
Re: Paul Ryan's Budget: The Most Important Domestic Proposal of our Lifetimes
Peter Robinson:
The GOP budget represents the most consequential domestic policy proposal in our lifetimes. Republicans, the Tea Party, conservatives, libertarians--we should drop all other fights. This is where to make our stand. ·
Peter, consider this: the GOP drops the fight over the $61 billion number, drops it like a hot potato. The Democrats then say to the American people, "See? All this GOP talk about cutting the deficit was all for show. See how they've dropped their opposition to our sensible budget proposals because they think they have this new 'Paul Ryan plan' to use for political point-scoring -- as far as the budget is concerned, they're the same big spenders they were back when they had control of Congress under Bush."
Alternatively, suppose the GOP fights for the $61 billion, either with one CR through end of FY2011 or in increments, and says to the American people, "We will fight to tame the deficit and restore fiscal sanity at every opportunity, in the CRs and in the Ryan plan. The Democrats seem bent on preserving massive deficits at every turn. Which party do you trust with America's economic future?"
Dec '10
Re: Paul Ryan's Budget: The Most Important Domestic Proposal of our Lifetimes
At NRO The Corner:
"Following a Republican conference meeting Monday night, House Appropriations Committee chairman Hal Rogers (R., Ky.) accused Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) of negotiating in bad faith and placed the blame for the recent breakdown in negotiations squarely at Reid’s feet, alleging that the Senate leader had abruptly told Democratic negotiators to cease negotiating over the weekend. 'We made good progress Saturday, but come Sunday things just stopped,' Rogers said.
"Several members expressed concern that Senate Democrats were angling for a government shutdown. 'That’s the only possible interpretations of [Reid's] actions,' said Rep. Mike Simpson (R., Idaho), a senior member of the Appropriations Committee. 'We’re doing everything we can to avoid a government shutdown. If the government shuts down it will be because Harry Reid refuses to sit and negotiate in good faith…it’ll be because that’s what they want.'"
Peter: should the House Republicans simply capitulate to Reid's intransigence now so as to focus exclusively on the "one important fight" over Ryan's plan? How many issues can the Democrats roll the Republicans on that way? "You gonna fight us now and waste your strength? Remember 2012!"
Re: Paul Ryan's Budget: The Most Important Domestic Proposal of our Lifetimes
Stuart Creque
Peter Robinson:
The GOP budget represents the most consequential domestic policy proposal in our lifetimes. Republicans, the Tea Party, conservatives, libertarians--we should drop all other fights. This is where to make our stand. ·
Peter, consider this: the GOP drops the fight over the $61 billion number, drops it like a hot potato. · Apr 4 at 8:38pm
Thanks for this post, Stuart, because you force me to admit I wrote much too loosely. I didn't mean to suggest the GOP should simply give up on the CR. I meant that the CR wasn't worth shutting down the government--not when Democrats have already indicated they're willing to meeting Republicans at least half way, cutting $33 or so billion of the $61 billion the GOP has requested. In my view, the GOP should push hard for the full $61 billion. It should even threaten a shutdown. But when it comes to it, the GOP should settle for the best deal it can get short of a shutdown, then move on to the next piece of work, promoting the Ryan budget in every high school gymnasium, church hall, and community center in the country.
Oct '10
Re: Paul Ryan's Budget: The Most Important Domestic Proposal of our Lifetimes
David Limbaugh
You manifestly don't get my point. It doesn't matter whether you "reject that construct," but whether the people do. The fact that you all can call $31Billion a mole hill is a sad day for America. And I DON'T want to dance on anyone's grave -- where do you get that? You say fighting over that mole hill makes us look stupid? Do 57% of the people agree or disagree with you? · Apr 4 at 7:42pm
David--Uh, I "manifestly" do get your point--I just disagree. My argument is that the “people” don’t care in the magnitude of importance that you want to grant this issue. 57% of people agree that Coke is better than Pepsi--so what? I'm sorry, but $31Billion is small potatoes to go to war over when we only have the House under our control, and limited political capital / energy with which to use this year.
Oct '10
Re: Paul Ryan's Budget: The Most Important Domestic Proposal of our Lifetimes
David--Not every battle is worth going all out, and small victories are enough. I'm not VDH, but I do remember the Pyrrhic victory when they won the navy battle, but their ships were so depleted that they lost the war. I grant you that the "dance on the grave of your enemies" comment was over the top, but you are so strident that we have to bury Democrats on every topic (which I agree with you completely on the issues across the board) that distinguishing between big stuff and small stuff becomes blurred.
I’ve learned that in politics, its not who is right that wins, but who marshals their support most effectively. Example: have Wisconsin Republicans blown it? We’ll find out soon over recalls and judge elections.
Edited on April 5, 2011 at 6:12amRe: Paul Ryan's Budget: The Most Important Domestic Proposal of our Lifetimes
Peter Robinson
Stuart Creque
Peter Robinson:
Democrats have already indicated they're willing to meeting Republicans at least half way, cutting $33 or so billion of the $61 billion the GOP has requested. In my view, the GOP should push hard for the full $61 billion. It should even threaten a shutdown. But when it comes to it, the GOP should settle for the best deal it can get short of a shutdown, then move on to the next piece of work, promoting the Ryan budget in every high school gymnasium, church hall, and community center in the country. · Apr 4 at 9:02pm
Peter: Why do you guys put so much faith in the Dems acting in good faith? I think Stuart's correct. I mentioned in my other post that we know they're not in good faith based on Schumer's comments alone -- now this Reid thing. Who says they're wanting to agree to $33 billion. I firmly believe they'd love to force a shutdown and make it look like Republicans caused it. So I repeat and no one responded: what if the best deal we can get is $5 billion? Shutdown?
Re: Paul Ryan's Budget: The Most Important Domestic Proposal of our Lifetimes
Ken Sweeney
David--Uh, I "manifestly" do get your point--I just disagree. My argument is that the “people” don’t care in the magnitude of importance that you want to grant this issue. 57% of people agree that Coke is better than Pepsi--so what? I'm sorry, but $31Billion is small potatoes to go to war over when we only have the House under our control, and limited political capital / energy with which to use this year. · Apr 4 at 9:08pm
How do you know how much the people care about it? I think I talk to different people than many of you all do. And if you do get my point why do you keep going back to your own opinion about how $31 billion is small potatoes? There's an over-anxiousness here to believe that the GOP automatically gets blamed if there's a shutdown, even if the Dems deceitfully, calculatingly engineer it. My gosh, is our side so incompetent we don't even want to try to fight because we're so afraid of "independents?" I don't believe Independents have as much clout as I think some of you do.
Oct '10
Re: Paul Ryan's Budget: The Most Important Domestic Proposal of our Lifetimes
Procedural question—why are we negotiating already with Harry Reid? Shouldn’t we wait for the Senate to pass a budget resolution for the rest of the year and then negotiate in conference committee? I want the slippery Harry Reid and the Senate to pass a budget for the rest of the year (with actual numbers in it) instead of arguing it out in the media.
Re: Paul Ryan's Budget: The Most Important Domestic Proposal of our Lifetimes
Another weakness I see in your guys' argument is this: you seem to believe the Ryan budget battle is the end all be all to the point that it dwarfs everything else. If I understand you correctly it won't make a darn bit of difference what happens on this CR anyway, so why not fight? This idea of finite political capital is some academic nonsense that we don't have to accept in the real world. We could just as easily gain capital by fighting. I admit I don't know that. It's interesting that you all are so cocksure of your position as not to even countenance the notion that the base will be infuriated over a capitulation. I don't understand that.
Oct '10
Re: Paul Ryan's Budget: The Most Important Domestic Proposal of our Lifetimes
You know what is different about this "shutdown scenario" is that it is playing out in the Senate and not the House. This is Harry Reid's responsibility right now, not Boehner's.
Republicans need to make a stand and frame the narrative to be clear that failure to find a solution is with the Democrat controlled Senate.
Re: Paul Ryan's Budget: The Most Important Domestic Proposal of our Lifetimes
In may exceedingly humble but determined opinion, there is too much of a beltway-ish echo chamber in here. I believe there will be hell to pay if we cave. I'm not making this up. I've talked to many people of like mind. They may or may not be representative. As Rumsfeld says, I suppose this is ultimately unknowable until it happens -- if it happens. But I'm weary of beating my head against the wall as I'm sure many of you are, so unless you insult me and I have to defend my honor, I'm outta here.
Apr '11
Re: Paul Ryan's Budget: The Most Important Domestic Proposal of our Lifetimes
Peter Robinson
Oh, David, David, David. Why permit the Democrats to paint our side as heartless and extreme over the paltry few billions at stake in the continuing resolution? Why now, when--at last!--we have before the country something truly worth fighting for?
As for all those smiley faces, did you really suppose they would move me?
I remain,
Dr. Evil · Apr 4 at 4:49pm
Edited on Apr 04 at 04:51 pm
Peter, on this one I think you need to meet David half way. We have to start winning a portion of the fight, if we don't the Dems will just keep pushing. History has shown that the Dems have more endurance and stamina, than the good guys, at least in recent history. I think we need to show some backbone and do it now!
Apr '11
Re: Paul Ryan's Budget: The Most Important Domestic Proposal of our Lifetimes
Stuart Creque: At NRO The Corner:
"Several members expressed concern that Senate Democrats were angling for a government shutdown. 'That’s the only possible interpretations of [Reid's] actions,' said Rep. Mike Simpson (R., Idaho), a senior member of the Appropriations Committee. 'We’re doing everything we can to avoid a government shutdown. If the government shuts down it will be because Harry Reid refuses to sit and negotiate in good faith…it’ll be because that’s what they want.'"
Peter: should the House Republicans simply capitulate to Reid's intransigence now so as to focus exclusively on the "one important fight" over Ryan's plan? How many issues can the Democrats roll the Republicans on that way? "You gonna fight us now and waste your strength? Remember 2012!" · Apr 4 at 8:57pm
Stuart, you can bet that Harry Reid is betting that a government shutdown will have the same effect that it did in 1994, but I'm not so sure.
In 1994 the concern about the national debt wasn't nearly at the level it is today.
In fact I think that a government shutdown may backfire on the Dems?
May '10
Re: Paul Ryan's Budget: The Most Important Domestic Proposal of our Lifetimes
I have yet to read the plan and think it through but it does appear to finally get us on the road back to sanity. I do not understand the thinking that this serves only as a point of debate for the 2012 election. IF THE GOP wants to, with its control of the House, it can make this happen in at least rough form from October 1. It only requires fixing the debt limit to the Ryan plan, holding firm in the negotiations with the Senate and being willing to "go to the wall" when the Senate and WH don't go along.
Peter is probably correct that shifting the focus to the debt limit and budget discussions would be a more productive use of time. David however is undoubtedly correct re. the feelings of impatience and distrust from the base.
I know that up to now, I felt the GOP was using tea spoons to bail out a foundering Titanic and that Peter was celebrating his perception that at least they recognized there was a problem. I hope that I was really wrong and he is right.
should be interesting
Jul '10
Re: Paul Ryan's Budget: The Most Important Domestic Proposal of our Lifetimes
Looking at the gross numbers, I'm with Kenneth on this one. A return to the 2007 budget baseline would represent $10T+ in real cuts over the next 10 years. The Ryan position takes 60%+ of the failed stimulus "surge" and declares it baseline. The 2007 budget baseline was already the bloated product of a spendthrift GOP Congress.
Yes, the Dems will wail like a Greek chorus giving it up for Sophocles, but this is a six meter sea wall against a 12 meter tidal wave.
How many dollars should the private sector spend for each dollar the public sector spends? How many dollars should we spend making things versus regulating the making? How much money should we dedicate to the people that double gasoline prices and put people out of jobs versus the people who drill gasoline and provide Americans with jobs?
Jan '11
Re: Paul Ryan's Budget: The Most Important Domestic Proposal of our Lifetimes
I'll speak only for myself. I don't know how the public will react. I thought Wisconsin was a slam-dunk, and that the people will see how shady the unions are ... but then I see polls that suggest the opposite. Like it or not, there are a lot of people in this country who aren't conservative. And their vote counts as much as ours.
In isolation, I'd prefer they fight over everything. But if the last two years has taught us anything, it's the power of the presidency. Obama can stop the House. He can block Ryan. Especially when he has a Democrat Senate. While a Democrat occupies the White House, and especially when they control the Senate, we can't get to the real reform. And I want real reform.
I'm a political junkie, but I'm not a political pro. I don't know how the CR fight will affect 2012. And if there's a good chance it will, I'd rather sacrifice the short for the longer term goal. If David is right, and that the CR fight will help 2012, I'm for it. But I don't know.