Party Like It's 1980
In his Wall Street Journal column today, Bill McGurn takes on the conventional wisdom that maintains that all is pretty much lost when it comes to the GOP's shot at the White House this fall. In fact, the parallels between this election cycle and that of 1980 are striking, providing plenty of reason for conservatives to take heart. Below, some of the comparisons Bill draws between the months leading up to Jimmy Carter's ouster and today.
- Then as now, the Republican primaries opened with a bang, when George H.W. Bush upset Ronald Reagan in the Iowa caucuses. By late February, this loss would lead to Reagan's firing of his campaign manager, John Sears, in a disagreement over strategy.
- Then, as now, Republicans feared that an unhappy contender might bolt the party to mount an independent campaign. In 1980, that was liberal John Anderson, not libertarian Ron Paul. Mr. Anderson did end up running as an independent, whereas Mr. Paul will likely be constrained by the effect a third-party run would have on the future prospects for his Republican son, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul.
- Then as now, the chattering classes wondered aloud whether a candidate who could win the Republican nomination could prevail against President Carter in November. On March 1, former President Gerald Ford amplified that view when he told a New York Times reporter, "Every place I go and everything I hear, there is the growing, growing sentiment that Governor Reagan cannot win the election."
- Then as now, some put their hopes on a late entry, in the same way that some now pine for Jeb Bush or Mitch Daniels or Chris Christie to enter the race. In the same interview where Mr. Ford predicted that Reagan's nomination would mean a repeat of 1964, he also declared himself open to a draft if there were a genuine "urging" by the party.
And in addition to these comparisons, Bill reminds us that just as there are no perfect candidates today, there were none to be found in 1980 either. Reagan was not without baggage —as Governor of California he passed an enormous tax hike, oversaw a doubling of the state budget, and signed into law a liberalization of abortion. And though we sometimes whitewash our memory of the Gipper as one of modern America's best orators, Bill recalls that not even Reagan was immune from making the occasional gaffe. On top of all this, the punditocracy deemed Reagan's social message to be too out of the mainstream. On one occasion, Reagan shared a stage with a minister who claimed that "we're being attacked by satanic forces," an incident which was received by the media in much the same fashion as Santorum's statements on Satan were.
"Yes, the parallels to 1980 take you only so far, and Mitt Romney is no Ronald Reagan," Bill concedes. "Still, at this same point in his campaign for the GOP nomination, neither was Reagan."
Buck up, folks. We've got another eight months to see how this will all play out.
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Apr '11
Re: Party Like It's 1980
Happy, Hopeful, and Conservative!? I think it is not in our nature to be optimistic. For us the world has been crumbling into greater perfidy since we got kicked out of Eden...DOOM! DOOM! We are DOOMED!
Of course should Romney win and beat Obama, and then do half the things he promises and revitalize the Republican party and America we will have known it all along and never doubt it. Until then we must be melodramatic, taring our shirts and pouring ashes over our heads.....
Edited on March 7, 2012 at 2:42amDec '10
Re: Party Like It's 1980
At this point in the 1980 campaign, was Ronald Reagan Mitt Romney?
May '10
Re: Party Like It's 1980
Valiuth:
Until then me must be melodramatic, taring our shirts and pouring ashes over our heads.....
... and nibbling on Oreos.
May '11
Re: Party Like It's 1980
Reagan had the benefit of a crumbling economy and the Iranian hostage crisis destroying the Carter presidency. Along with Carter not being the most dynamic individual. Incumbent elections are always a referendum on the incumbent. The challenger is normally irrelevent.
Aug '10
Re: Party Like It's 1980
Thanks for posting this article, Diane. I was going to post it on the member feed but was too busy.
All the gloom and doom with conservatives right now shows a lack of patience and understanding. Of course our guys are going to get beat up going through a tough primary fight. Of course their negatives are going to go up when they have their fellow Republicans and unions running negative ads. Of course our guys are going to have their weaknesses highlighted, it's part of the process.
Many events can and will occur between now and November - to say 8 months out that we have no chance is just silly.
Apr '11
Re: Party Like It's 1980
I remember the media selling me on the chance of drafting Ford or some sort of Ford/Reagan ticket in 1980 - at the time, I was clueless enough to be a Carter voter. In 1980. Go figure. Even after all that.
Anyway, I find myself sufficiently depressed over the attention paid to one woman's access to paid-for contraception on demand to know that it really isn't as bleak as it looks today. We just lost Andrew, and we're in that part of the year when depression can be rampant. Remember that the media is the conduit for all this, and constant exposure to it will get you to underestimate America and its character. We are better than our media. Don't forget that.
May '10
Re: Party Like It's 1980
I'm not worried at all about the main election (which is not to suggest the Republican candidate will be a shoe-in). I'm worried about what happens after.
Re: Party Like It's 1980
Hate to be a wet blanket, but what matters is not whether "Romney is Reagan" but whether "Obama is Carter" -- as thelonious notes above. Unfortunately -- electorally, at least -- he's not. By this point in his presidency, Carter's approval numbers had tanked for good. He was in the 30s, not pushing 50. He was undergoing a tough primary challenge from Ted Kennedy that left a large part of the Democratic base alienated. And he never had the media and the rest of the so-called elites in his corner the way Obama does -- they thought he was some sort of redneck, evangelical hick. And in spite of all of this, the race was nearly a dead heat until Reagan's masterful performance in the second debate, one week before the election.
The road ahead will be tough. I would love to have some genuine reasons for optimism, but this doesn't do it for me.
Re: Party Like It's 1980
I will repeat what I have said in the past. If Mitt Romney is the nominee -- which I have thought likely since last May -- and if he runs a campaign that appeals to first principles and does not rest first and foremost on a claim that he is a superior manager, he can win and win big. If he runs on the presumption that our problems stem solely or even primarily from mismanagement, he will not win big and may very well lose. This will be an election about liberty -- religious liberty and the freedom to earn one's own living and manage one's own life. It will not be an election about competence. To win and win big, Mitt Romney must genuinely and passionately embrace conservatism.
Dec '10
Re: Party Like It's 1980
A guy from work took this picture today and posted it on his facebook page. I hope it's symbolic.
By the way, I danced around this question a couple of days ago.
Edited on March 7, 2012 at 1:01amAug '10
Re: Party Like It's 1980
King PrawnI think alot depends on where the picture was taken .And if you found it on AP , Reuters, NYT, then I question the authenticity of the snow.I thank Dianne for lifting the gloom a little. Super Tuesday loses alot, as politics and battle for the future has lost alot with the man they buried .
Dec '10
Re: Party Like It's 1980
It was taken in our evening shift supervisor's front yard. The snow was real enough; I drove through it to work this morning.
May '10
Re: Party Like It's 1980
The King Prawn
It was taken in our evening shift supervisor's front yard. The snow was real enough; I drove through it to work this morning.
Through your supervisor's yard? Government work is more egalitarian than I thought.
May '11
Re: Party Like It's 1980
Obama wants to give us stuff. If you get in the way of giving us stuff you're mean. That argument unfortunatly trumps the ideals of liberty and freedom. Free contraception is liberty and freedom nowadays. If the economy doesn't tank and Obamas' scandals are still swept under the rug he wins. I hate to say it's that simple but it is.
Dec '10
Re: Party Like It's 1980
thelonious
Obama wants to give us stuff. If you get in the way of giving us stuff you're mean. That argument unfortunatly trumps the ideals of liberty and freedom. Free contraception is liberty and freedom nowadays. If the economy doesn't tank and Obamas' scandals are still swept under the rug he wins. I hate to say it's that simple but it is.
1) If the economy (especially employment) shows continuous growth, Obama likely wins.
2) One thing Americans have always been about and are still about is the idea that any of us can become wealthy. Romney could do worse than remind voters he knows how to help people become rich: not promise to make them rich, but to create an environment in which they can.
Apr '11
Re: Party Like It's 1980
I think he can run on both. He is a good manager because he understand first principles. How can you hope to steer the ship of state through these turbulent waters without knowing which way north is. That is the leap Romney must help people make in their minds. Good principles work and therefore lead to good management. His good management is do to his good principles. We have to think right in order to do things right...
Nov '10
Re: Party Like It's 1980
I guess he’d need to have some principles to do that, right?
Nov '10
Re: Party Like It's 1980
The parallels to the 1980 campaign break down on one big thing. The GOP had a conservative as their candidate in 1980.
Re: Party Like It's 1980
True. But as Bill points out, Reagan had some not so conservative items in his record as Governor.
Nov '10
Re: Party Like It's 1980
Diane Ellis, Ed.
True. But as Bill points out, Reagan had some not so conservative items in his record as Governor. · 2 hours ago
Steven Hayward’s biography of Reagan showed how he had been honing his conservatism and refining his principles for 20 years before the 1980 campaign. Correct me if I’m wrong but I think he gave a speech at the 1964 GOP convention about “a little elite in Washington D.C.”
Romney has spent the last 20 years being first a liberal, then a progressive and now a conservative? He a chameleon on plaid, a slick businessman telling his customers whatever he thinks they want to hear. Now he’s a politician telling voters what he thinks they’d like to hear but he can’t even do that without gaffing it up most of the time. He’s a phony, through and through.
Reagan had core principles long before he ever thought of running for president. No parallels here to 1980, none. Maybe to 2008.
Edited on March 7, 2012 at 7:33am