Paris Notes: Nobody Ever Promised You a Toaster Oven
I only arrived a few hours ago, and of course I've spent those hours with my father, so I can't really say yet what the mood is like in Paris. It's overcast and drizzling, and it's a holiday here; my sense that the city seems subdued may reflect only that.
I was in the air, so I only heard when I arrived that the Greek government plans to put their bailout to a referendum.
My father's reaction: "A masterpiece of political cunning, I must say. It exposes the fact that the chief European institutions are unelected and for this reason dangerous and corrupt; and at the same time, it gives the Greek government a remarkable degree of leverage with precisely the same dangerous and corruption institutions. Soften those terms, the Greeks will now be able to say, or we go to the mattresses.
"If the Greeks do hold a referendum and Greek voters tell the EU to take hike, as I suspect they will, the Greek government can do what it is anyway dying to do, get out of the EU and the euro--and by resuscitating the drachma, cancel one hundred percent of its sovereign debt. And why shouldn't the Greeks go back to their happy ways with their restored currency? Argentina did just that. It was able to float new sovereign debts without ever worrying about their old sovereign debts. If the Greeks vote to accept a bailout, the Greek government can put the screws on its own people by observing that their pain was self-inflicted and that they should cease their whingeing.
"The Greeks have discovered a way to subvert the EU and with it German dominance of the continent. All those frantic late-night negotiations--and for nothing. What an exquisite moment for the Greeks. Dead broke and shiftless, they have managed quite alone to gravely weaken their EU tormenters.
"The great loser in all this is France. French banks are going to be stuck with a default on all of their Greek obligations. Tough for them, I say. Société Générale never offered me a free toaster oven when I opened my account with them. I'm not about to forget."
My reaction: It's good to be here. Paris feels like home, reassuring and familiar. It's great to see my father.
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Comments :
Aug '10
Re: Paris Notes: Nobody Ever Promised You a Toaster Oven
So if we decided to default on China then Walmart would have to get everything from other sources ? Maybe an ally like India could fill that void ? And if the Greeks vote to leave does that mean the Turks will fill that void ? Can the Greek people handle that kind of independence ?
Aug '10
Re: Paris Notes: Nobody Ever Promised You a Toaster Oven
The difference being that China has a bigger military than France, and China's more willing to use it.
Oct '11
Re: Paris Notes: Nobody Ever Promised You a Toaster Oven
Wow, I've been trying to piece together proper reading of these maneuvers and I must say "thanks" to your Father. This is a very insightful and concise explanation for a yankee like myself who doesn't spend as much time following these things as I should.
May '10
Re: Paris Notes: Nobody Ever Promised You a Toaster Oven
I can't begrudge Greece its optimism: after all, MF Global is always buying. Oh, wait....
Re: Paris Notes: Nobody Ever Promised You a Toaster Oven
Oh, to be in Paris, now that the Berlinskis are in the air.
Your pop's analysis is, of course, perfectly brilliant. Give him our best.
Dec '10
Re: Paris Notes: Nobody Ever Promised You a Toaster Oven
That quote is GOAT. Going on the facebook page.
Aug '10
Re: Paris Notes: Nobody Ever Promised You a Toaster Oven
Do you think that Mr Corzine's ethics were damaged (1) as Governor of New Jersey or (2) in the car accident or (3) as president of Goldman Sachs ?
Aug '10
Re: Paris Notes: Nobody Ever Promised You a Toaster Oven
The EU has already agreed to let Greece default on half their debt. For them to default on all of it would merely be twice as bad, so they might as well go for it.
Aug '11
Re: Paris Notes: Nobody Ever Promised You a Toaster Oven
This was a very good piece. A lot of the final shape of the debt deal came together while I was busy/lazy about reading and I struggled to put it all together. It was very interesting reading about the Greek referendum. I read a few articles on the Corner (NRO) and their links to some of the British papers, but this is the first time I read about this angle.
This whole thing is very concerning.
Jul '10
Re: Paris Notes: Nobody Ever Promised You a Toaster Oven
Clarity at its clearest.
Nov '10
Re: Paris Notes: Nobody Ever Promised You a Toaster Oven
I hope that your father's prediction comes true. What has the European Union done for us?
While the Greeks are at it, perhaps they could do us another favor and torpedo NATO. I'd love for us to be rid of that burden and let the free-loading Europeans figure out how to defend themselves.
May '10
Re: Paris Notes: Nobody Ever Promised You a Toaster Oven
Flownover: I can't speak to the man's ethics, but I will say his judgment flew the coop at some point.
Sep '11
Re: Paris Notes: Nobody Ever Promised You a Toaster Oven
Struggling what to make sense of this Greek referendum. Perspective from two such savants helps a great deal. Thank you!