Panicked??? Are You Kidding Me???
I've been out of the country for a week. I left and conservatives were holding a celebration that looked like the parade scene from Ferris Bueller. I come back and they're re-enacting Jonestown. The post DNC polls, it seems, have convinced some of us that all is lost. Dudes! Have some freaking fortitude! Let me make three points (some of which I've developed after talking to an erstwhile political insider who will remain nameless).
1. The polls - and the news about the polls - are made by people who want to demoralize you. When you act demoralized, you are aiding and abetting the enemy and helping to spread their poison. They lie. We know they lie. And then we proceed to believe them. Don't be doing that.
2. Even the best polls - Rasmussen's - overestimate Democrat turnout and are not designed to take into account anomalies like 2010. Some say, "Well, they were pretty accurate in 2010." But WHEN were they accurate? The answer: They turned quite suddenly accurate about ten minutes before the vote when even a blind man could look up and see the tsunami about to crash down on top of their heads. You wanna know how accurate September polling is? Take a look at this from Bloomberg. Not so much, kimosabe. Look closely at that Reagan-Carter poll too.
3. Romney and Obama are polling by the minute - far, far more often and more accurately than the professional pollsters. Which one of them looks frightened to you? Me too.
Hey, this is reality. Sometimes bad guys win and good guys lose. But to these increasingly ancient eyes, it looks as if we are on the march and they are in retreat. Is it time to despair? Not today, brothers and sisters. Not today.
However, by way of rebuttal and in the interest of fairness, here's a cogent defense of the president's economic plans:
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Comments:
May '12
Re: Panicked??? Are You Kidding Me???
You should come on over here more often.
I have to go over to PJMedia to read you. I like you and all, but there's a mighty rough crowd over there. And with a capacity for being downright rude.
Barry Goldwater didn't say nuthin' about being rude in defense of anything.
Re: Panicked??? Are You Kidding Me???
Thank you for this, Drew. We really needed it.
May '11
Re: Panicked??? Are You Kidding Me???
No kidding! Why don't you go on the ricochet podcast this week and talk some sense into the guys. Good grief. I'm sure they could last-minute squeeze you into the schedule.
May '11
Re: Panicked??? Are You Kidding Me???
Thanks, Brother Klavan! In between the extremes of panic/pessimism and blind optimism, can we try to find a middle ground of realism? Let's talk about what works and what doesn't. I don't really care about the polls. What can we do to win this election?
Jun '11
Re: Panicked??? Are You Kidding Me???
AK is Boss.
Nov '10
Re: Panicked??? Are You Kidding Me???
I'm a little tired of conservatives pointing to the Reagan-Carter poll. The very character of the country is vastly different -- a profound change in the very soul of the body politic over thirty years. That this 3rd World anthropologist (thank you David Goldman), pseudo-Marxist demagogue could be THIS popular given THESE circumstances is appalling. Simply appalling.
People become accustomed to slavishness; to "the new normal." Conservatives talk of unleashing "self-interest" -- the silver bullet that will kill statism. Slavishness can just as easily be one's self-interest.
May '10
Re: Panicked??? Are You Kidding Me???
Sing it brother. I remember the panic on election day in 2004 when the EXIT polls showed Kerry winning. The only poll that counts is the one behind the curtain on election day. And to anyone who is still concerned, put your where your heart is and write a check to team Romney....
Nov '10
Re: Panicked??? Are You Kidding Me???
Bravo Andrew. Another great short tutorial.
Jun '12
Re: Panicked??? Are You Kidding Me???
I've had more time than usual today and have enjoyed watching the (justified) pillorying of the esteemed Mr. Robinson. I especially appreciated the inspirational video clips. Way to buck up Rico nation!
So here's an idea- what shall his penance be? :)
A few suggestions:
- a video apology a la Cory Booker.
- sing Daniel Powter's "you had a bad day" to open the flagship podcast. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyLb8lRBOG8
- write "I wrote for Reagan. Can't go wobbly now" 500 times on the Ricochet blackboard.
others?
Jun '12
Re: Panicked??? Are You Kidding Me???
Did you not read the rest of the article?
Andrew Klavan:
1. The polls - and the news about the polls - are made by people who want to demoralize you. When you act demoralized, you are aiding and abetting the enemy and helping to spread their poison. They lie. We know they lie. And then we proceed to believe them. Don't be doing that.
3. Romney and Obama are polling by the minute - far, far more often and more accurately than the professional pollsters. Which one of them looks frightened to you? Me too.
The news about polls you are reading is designed to induce just the sort of feelings you're experiencing. And Obama is clearly flailing, throwing every kind of dirt he can at Romney in the hope something will stick.
Sep '10
Re: Panicked??? Are You Kidding Me???
I wasn't in despair, but this still cheered up my whole day! Thanks .
Jun '10
Re: Panicked??? Are You Kidding Me???
The three legs of the Obama economic stool: government borrowing stimulates the economy, the rich get rich by hoarding money, and higher taxes on the rich don't inhibit job creation; they enable job creation.
Re: Panicked??? Are You Kidding Me???
Edward Smith: You should come on over here more often.
I have to go over to PJMedia to read you. I like you and all, but there's a mighty rough crowd over there. And with a capacity for being downright rude.
Barry Goldwater didn't say nuthin' about being rude in defense of anything. · 49 minutes ago
You listening, Drew? The man is making a good point. You need to spend more time here at Ricochet.
Re: Panicked??? Are You Kidding Me???
Ryan M
No kidding! Why don't you go on the ricochet podcast this week and talk some sense into the guys. Good grief. I'm sure they could last-minute squeeze you into the schedule. · 48 minutes ago
No argument here. Although to be fair to me, I'm manic-depressive bi-polar when it comes to November. Half the time I'm giddy optimistic, the other half I'm demoralized and downcast. There is no middle.
I'm not proud of that. Just being honest.
Jul '12
Re: Panicked??? Are You Kidding Me???
I'm a little sick of people talking about how the demographics of the country have changed. A likely voter is a likely voter regardess of demographic. Comparing the polls from 1980 and today is totally reasonable. We're saying that pollsters blew the calls back then and there is no reason to think they're any better at, i.e. 2010. Demographics don't enter in to it, unless one is saying that the pollsters are polling the wrong demographic. And just for good measure, I'll write demographic again. Demographic, demographic. Zee naysayers unt grrrumblers vill be remembered vhen zis iz ovah.
Jun '12
Re: Panicked??? Are You Kidding Me???
Rob Long
Edward Smith: You should come on over here more often.
I have to go over to PJMedia to read you. I like you and all, but there's a mighty rough crowd over there. And with a capacity for being downright rude.
Barry Goldwater didn't say nuthin' about being rude in defense of anything. · 49 minutes ago
You listening, Drew? The man is making a good point. You need to spend more time here at Ricochet. · 6 minutes ago
Hear, hear!
Let's have a vote... all those who want Andrew to post more here, say "Aye!"
Jul '12
Re: Panicked??? Are You Kidding Me???
Aye
Jul '10
Re: Panicked??? Are You Kidding Me???
More time on Ricochet? Fantastic idea!
Also, Drew isn't only brilliant, well sourced and insightful. He's devastatingly handsome.
(See how nice Ricochet is?)
Apr '11
Re: Panicked??? Are You Kidding Me???
A BASIC response:
10 print "aye"
20 go to 10
30 end
;-)
Jun '10
Re: Panicked??? Are You Kidding Me???
Aye! More posts. He talked me down off the ledge.