Paging the Newt Fan Club, or Are We Doomed?
From Rasmussen today:
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich now trails President Obama by double digits, his second straight weekly decline since becoming the GOP frontrunner. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters finds Obama earning 49% of the vote, while Gingrich receives 39% support.
Yes, yes, yes; it's just another single poll. And it's very easy to say, "polls don't matter much at this point." And that's true -- to a point. No poll or even series of polls at this point is either definitive or deterministic. But the pattern -- of multiple polls over a period of time -- does tend to be indicative. And what this indicates, I think, is that now that the "novelty" surge for Newt appears to have subsided, he faces an uphill playing field against Dear Leader.
A few weeks ago, I would have said that this contrasts unfavorably with Mitt Romney, who appeared to be in a position to take on DL on a more-or-less level playing field. But Mitt's continuing utter inability to inspire enthusiasm in anyone on any subject whatsoever has not only left me and other could-be supporters shaking our heads, but appears to have tilted the playing field at least somewhat against him as well.
With due respect to the masochists out there who think losing with a perfect candidate is ultimately better than winning with a flawed one, I think most of us disagree. Rule Number One has to be: Give us a candidate who can beat Obama. Until I see that, I really don't care about past flip-flops, lobbying fees, debate skills, or any of that. Give me two candidates who can beat Obama -- then I'll start to weigh A's flip-flops versus B's unpredictability, or whatever. But right now I don't see two candidates who could beat Obama today; I'm not sure I even see one. And I'm not sure I see a strategy for how any of the current crop of candidates re-tilts the playing field in his (or her) favor.
Can we all please jump on the Huntsman bandwagon for a few weeks to really gum up the works? Then maybe enough people, somewhere, somehow, will start to take the Brokered Convention idea seriously....
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Jul '10
Re: Paging the Newt Fan Club, or Are We Doomed?
The whole premise of the poll question is flawed. There is no single candidate running against Obama. I don't see why one would fret.
According to the polls, not one candidate beats Obama. Even the Chosen One (Romney) loses by two.
Recall if you will the dire predictions of a Reagan loss in 1980, or "too close to call."
May '10
Re: Paging the Newt Fan Club, or Are We Doomed?
Even the "pattern" means nothing. At this point in 1991 GHW Bush was riding high with a 51% approval rating. (A bit lower than Jimmy Carter was at 53% in December of 1979.)
At this point the frontrunners going into NH were:
Mario Cuomo - 33%
Jerry Brown - 15
Douglas Wilder - 9
Bob Kerrey - 8
Tom Harkin - 7
Bill Clinton - 6
Paul Tsongas - 4
Cuomo declined to run, Tsongas was supposed to be the favorite son from nearby Massachusetts and the Southern governor with the marital indiscretions was barely on the map.
And the "sputtering" Reagan info is here.
Edited on Dec 14, 2011 at 4:41pmMay '11
Re: Paging the Newt Fan Club, or Are We Doomed?
The generic Republican has been beating Obama like a drum for over a year. Huntsman is probably as close to a generic Republican as you could find but the syphyltic camel is polling better than he is. This is a very strange year.
Dec '10
Re: Paging the Newt Fan Club, or Are We Doomed?
Yep. We're doomed -- hic -- pash the Ron Paul... I mean, bottle, of coursh.
Jun '10
Re: Paging the Newt Fan Club, or Are We Doomed?
I could easily jump over to the Perry fan club, if the lights come on again and the band starts playing on key. But in the trio of Gingrich, Romney, and Paul, I have to go with Gingrich. And now that it's becoming clear that so many hate Gingrich's guts, including many who have an ego every bit as big as his, it somehow makes me like him more. When do you ever get the chance to flip the bird to so many people on both sides of the aisle with just one vote?
Jul '10
Re: Paging the Newt Fan Club, or Are We Doomed?
Hear Here!!
Re: Paging the Newt Fan Club, or Are We Doomed?
Are there really that many people who can't wait for the next stimulus? Who love Obamacare? Who like a commander in chief who asks, pretty please, for the Iranians to return our drone? Who like to be led by the nose by condescending government-worshiping property confiscating collectivist goons? Are the independents really that afraid of self governance? Something doesn't ring true somehow...
Jun '10
Re: Paging the Newt Fan Club, or Are We Doomed?
These pollsters never call me. I probably would not answer their questions anyway for several reasons: Too busy, still too busy, I'm having supper, these are stupid questions....
It was reported as news today on the local radio station that one in 5 women in America have been raped, sexually assaulted with intent to rape, etc. This, based on a poll of some 9,000 women. This seems absolutely crazy to me and says what about the questions and the agenda behind them?
Edited on Dec 14, 2011 at 5:04pmRe: Paging the Newt Fan Club, or Are We Doomed?
I think Newt could effectively make the case, the real case, during the general election about the stakes we face as a nation. This is a critical election. We stand at the brink of Great Depression: The Sequel. We won't manage our way out of this box with Mitt Romney.
Making the case effectively can transform the poll numbers; if not, we are already doomed.
Newt's great strengths and weaknesses both stem from his intense desire to be at the center of great and transformational events. When given an historic opportunity, as with the 1994 election, he delivered. In the political wilderness, he cast about for another transformational calling, often coming off as loopy in the process.
The current economic crisis is the real deal.
I think Newt the historian grasps the import, Newt the politician knows what to do, and Newt the ego wants to go down in history as the man who saved the country.
I think he might just be able to pull it off.
May '10
Re: Paging the Newt Fan Club, or Are We Doomed?
Dr. Savage, that is the best case I've heard for Newt yet.
Re: Paging the Newt Fan Club, or Are We Doomed?
Ditto. The only thing I'd quibble with is describing 1994 as "historic" and "transformational." The only thing 1994 transformed, as far as I can tell, was Bill Clinton, from the overt liberal of his heart to the semi-moderate pragmatic of his head. It didn't transform the GOP, which promptly gave us Dole, Bush, Bush, & McCain as standard-bearers. It stopped Clinton's intended rapid expansion of the welfare state, but didn't stop the slow, steady growth of same. And, having lived through both, I don't think 1994 "transformed" the electorate in the same way that Reagan's run in 1980 -- and subsequent successes -- palpably moved the electorate as a whole a bit to the right.
The question is whether the electorate as a whole -- or a very large part of it -- can be made to see this moment as a "pivot point." If so, then I agree that this might be the one environment in which Newt could pull it off. But I'm just not sure whether that's going to be the case.
May '10
Re: Paging the Newt Fan Club, or Are We Doomed?
That's not a quibble, Steve. 1994 was the year that America got two parties again. And that's why the left hates Gingrich with a passion. Without Speaker Gingrich there is no Speaker Hastert or Speaker Boehner.
Can I make a case for Newt?
Dec '10
Re: Paging the Newt Fan Club, or Are We Doomed?
Steve Manacek:
Rule Number One has to be: Give us a candidate who can beat Obama.
Any candidate can beat Obama who:
- Is running against Obama
- Is at least 35 years of age
- Is a natural-born citizen of the United States
Anyone who meets all three of those criteria can beat Obama, because a majority of the American electorate wants Obama out. They want him out because they believe that retaining him will not only fail to make their lives better, but will actively make their lives worse.
Dec '10
Re: Paging the Newt Fan Club, or Are We Doomed?
EJHill
That's not a quibble, Steve. 1994 was the year that America got two parties again. And that's why the left hates Gingrich with a passion. Without Speaker Gingrich there is no Speaker Hastert or Speaker Boehner.
Can I make a case for Newt? · Dec 14 at 6:13pm
Absolutely correct: 1994 was the end of a 40-year run of Democrat control of Congress. Newt's predecessors as House Minority leadership never even considered such a thing possible, much less did anything to make it happen.
The 1994 elections forced Bill Clinton to say out loud, "The era of Big Government is over." Of course he was lying, but that he was forced to lie -- and that subsequently because of it Nancy Pelosi was forced to lie about Democrat fiscal responsibility -- was due to Newt. And because Democrats have to lie about fiscal responsibility, pretending that it's important and important to them, they're hamstrung in their political ability to sell the country on their Socialist program.
Apr '11
Re: Paging the Newt Fan Club, or Are We Doomed?
Steve Manacek
Ditto. The only thing I'd quibble with is describing 1994 as "historic" and "transformational." The only thing 1994 transformed, as far as I can tell, was Bill Clinton, from the overt liberal of his heart to the semi-moderate pragmatic of his head. It didn't transform the GOP, which promptly gave us Dole, Bush, Bush, & McCain as standard-bearers. It stopped Clinton's intended rapid expansion of the welfare state, but didn't stop the slow, steady growth of same. And, having lived through both, I don't think 1994 "transformed" the electorate in the same way that Reagan's run in 1980 -- and subsequent successes -- palpably moved the electorate as a whole a bit to the right.
It's my impression that he, DeLay, and Armey did briefly transform the party in 1994, and then the backlash against Newt transformed the party again, giving us Dole, Clinton's second term, Compassionate Conservatism, and almost giving us Gore or McCain (in 2000, 2008 was not Newt's fault).
Apr '11
Re: Paging the Newt Fan Club, or Are We Doomed?
EJHill
That's not a quibble, Steve. 1994 was the year that America got two parties again. And that's why the left hates Gingrich with a passion. Without Speaker Gingrich there is no Speaker Hastert or Speaker Boehner.
Can I make a case for Newt? · Dec 14 at 6:13pm
The Congressional Accountability Act was a nice cap on that, too. Who'd have thought his big achievement would be to bring humility to Congress? Not easy to predict, politics.
Dec '11
Re: Paging the Newt Fan Club, or Are We Doomed?
We are doomed because republican mouthpeices havent got anything good to say. So we are going to lose because we are mortally wounding our candidates.
Edited on Dec 14, 2011 at 7:43pmSep '10
Re: Paging the Newt Fan Club, or Are We Doomed?
If there's no brokered convention, then you might as well go down with all guns blazing and an angry badger ripping the pant leg of the Creased One, so Chris Matthews can spend the next 4 years lamenting the fall of Camelot.
Right now, candidate Romney is involved in an olympic sized decision about which hesitant equivocation to throw at Brett "The Human Piranha" Baier in the rematch so he can survive to dissemble another day.
Re: Paging the Newt Fan Club, or Are We Doomed?
Steve, every word you write is true and yet, while Gingrich ran the place, the House of Representatives moved public policy to the right in measurable ways: welfare reform, balanced budgets, telecommunications reform, an end to the nonsensical 55 mph national speed limit. All of this against President Clinton, one of the consummate retail politicians of the 20th century. If that sort of performance is erratic then I'd like John Boehner to start tapping into his inner Gingrich.
Apr '11
Re: Paging the Newt Fan Club, or Are We Doomed?
Steve Manacek:
Can we all please jump on the Huntsman bandwagon for a few weeks to really gum up the works?
No way. Huntsman is a total bore who won't stick up for Israel - same as Dole, McCain and Romney. And Ron Paul too.
Newt 2012!