Paging Mr. Robinson -- Newt Reality Check
Steve Manacek ·
Nov 22, 2011 at 8:56am
From Katrina Trinko over at The Corner this morning:
Results from Suffolk University/7NEWS (WHDH) poll of likely New Hampshire primary voters: Mitt Romney (41 percent), Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul (14 percent), Jon Huntsman (9 percent), Herman Cain (8 percent), Rick Santorum (3 percent), Rick Perry (2 percent), and Michele Bachmann (1 percent).
Yes, it's just one poll, but so was the last one, showing Newt within 2. But these results are way outside "margin of error" range. What do you think? An early warning sign of deflation in the Newt bubble? Or just a correction of an aberration, limited to New Hampshire?
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Dec '10
Re: Paging Mr. Robinson -- Newt Reality Check
Here's one that shows Romney 33/Newt 22: http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/primary/rep/nh/
Jul '10
Re: Paging Mr. Robinson -- Newt Reality Check
Who won New Hampshire last time?
Jun '10
Re: Paging Mr. Robinson -- Newt Reality Check
I've given up guessing. Will someone call when we have a candidate?
May '10
Re: Paging Mr. Robinson -- Newt Reality Check
Bob Dole's still alive, isn't he? Would it be too late to bring him back for one more butt-whipping?
Apr '11
Re: Paging Mr. Robinson -- Newt Reality Check
The focus on polling data can be diverting, but it's always something of a parlor game. The election is still a lifetime away (politically speaking). This was brought home to me just last week when Mark Levin read from a Time magazine article in September 1980, six weeks before the Carter-Reagan election. It discussed polling data that had the two men neck and neck. The article pointed to trend lines that had Reagan losing ground, and it emphasized Reagan "bloopers" and his dependence on "evangelicals." It described the confidence of Hamilton Jordan and the Carter team, and their pride in the president's record.
Six weeks later we know what happened. Carter won six states and the District. The popular vote was Reagan 51 percent, Carter 41 percent. No pollster at this remove from the election had a clue that a landslide was building.
But let's enjoy the parlor game. Until it's not.
Re: Paging Mr. Robinson -- Newt Reality Check
My suspicion at the time was that the earlier poll was an outlier. New Hampshire is Romney's back yard. He ought to win it without effort, and I suspect that he will. If, however, he loses in New Hampshire, then we are in for a free-for-all.
Re: Paging Mr. Robinson -- Newt Reality Check
I reply, Steve, if I may, with three little bullet points. To wit:
Aug '10
Re: Paging Mr. Robinson -- Newt Reality Check
I believe the Newt boomlet has legs.
There is a desperate generosity among the hard core base toward whomever currently holds the NotRomnidacy. It takes more than a rustle in grass to spook this herd. Cain, Perry and Bachmann all managed to do it, but it was not easy.
Newt's past may not come back to haunt him (it boggles the mind- but it is true), but it's what's about to come out of his mouth that will sink him like a stone.
I don't know where , I don't know when, but sooner or later he will say something that triggers the thought "do I really want to keep defending this guy through 2012"?
That question will get asked, and get answered in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Mar '11
Re: Paging Mr. Robinson -- Newt Reality Check
Peter Robinson:
At the beginning of the campaign season, I was convinced--convinced!--that Romney couldn't possibly win the GOP nomination. Then, after the Dartmouth debate, I became convinced--again!--that nobody but Romney could win. Now? I've bloody well given up.
I think many of us have experienced this same thing.
I haven't bothered to find out but have the New Hampshire Republicans reformed their primary system or will they be allowing Democrats from Massachusetts, Vermont, and New Hampshire to pick their nominee again this year.
Apr '11
Re: Paging Mr. Robinson -- Newt Reality Check
McCain. In Obama's luckiest strategic win, he was sick, and performed terribly on the New Hampshire campaign trail. The independents who should have been voting for him against Clinton voted for McCain instead. If Obama had pulled through the sickness, rallied his supporters and beaten Clinton by drawing those independents, Romney would be President today.
Romney's 2nd place result was a major turning point, in part because of the most significant media lie of the primaries, suggesting that Mitt's "a Gold medal, a Silver, and now another Silver" was "another Silver", turning a celebration of his front running status (he was ahead of 1st/ not placing/ 3rd Huckabee, and 3rd/ not placing/ 1st McCain) into what was seen as a weak acceptance of defeat. This was partly because the media resolutely refused to accept that Wyoming existed (the Economist and some others also denied the existence of Nevada), and partly because the MSM really, really wanted McCain to win.
Apr '11
Re: Paging Mr. Robinson -- Newt Reality Check
Squishy Blue RINO: I believe the Newt boomlet has legs.
There is a desperate generosity among the hard core base toward whomever currently holds the NotRomnidacy. It takes more than a rustle in grass to spook this herd. Cain, Perry and Bachmann all managed to do it, but it was not easy.
Newt's past may not come back to haunt him (it boggles the mind- but it is true), but it's what's about to come out of his mouth that will sink him like a stone.
I don't know where , I don't know when, but sooner or later he will say something that triggers the thought "do I really want to keep defending this guy through 2012"?
That question will get asked, and get answered in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. ·
It's a much slower race this time. I think it's just as likely that the question will be answered in Michigan, Arizona, and North Dakota. One big advantage for Mitt is that he doesn't feel the need to throw bombs and get attention, so he can just wait until Newt self-destructs. Doesn't have to be soon.
May '10
Re: Paging Mr. Robinson -- Newt Reality Check
Squishy Blue RINO: I believe the Newt boomlet has legs.
· Nov 22 at 11:12am
Me too. The other boomletteers were new to the national stage, and needed a period of tire-kicking. With Newt, most all voters have a well-established opinion of who he is and what are his strengths and weaknesses.
For the record, I've given up on him and all the rest and have resigned myself to a Romney presidency. It can't be that bad, can it?
Aug '10
Re: Paging Mr. Robinson -- Newt Reality Check
That sentence paints a rather interesting mental picture by itself.
Jun '10
Re: Paging Mr. Robinson -- Newt Reality Check
Fredösphere
Bob Dole's still alive, isn't he? Would it be too late to bring him back for one more butt-whipping? · Nov 22 at 10:17am
If it's Bob Dole, then please don't call me.
Re: Paging Mr. Robinson -- Newt Reality Check
Fredösphere
For the record, I've given up on him and all the rest and have resigned myself to a Romney presidency. It can't be that bad, can it? · Nov 22 at 2:12pm
It will be no conservative Utopia, but it will be immeasurably better than what we've had to endure the past three years -- and better by quite a few parasangs than the alternative of another four years of BHO.
Oct '10
Re: Paging Mr. Robinson -- Newt Reality Check
gingrich will maintain his lead because he does well in debates, and unlike cain, knowledgable on the issues.
issues about his past will not hurt him because they are already old news.
Apr '11
Re: Paging Mr. Robinson -- Newt Reality Check
John Marzan: gingrich will maintain his lead because he does well in debates, and unlike cain, knowledgable on the issues.
issues about his past will not hurt him because they are already old news. · Nov 22 at 6:17pm
There's just too many for them all to be old news. I don't think that his Endangered Species Act defense got much play in this campaign before yesterday, for instance.
Oct '11
Re: Paging Mr. Robinson -- Newt Reality Check
This early, simple popularity polls are silly. Organizations take these polls to influence the game, not to inform us. People (except for James of England above) pay attention to them because they're too lazy to try to figure out where developments will be in nine months.
Judging by the candidates' performances to date, versus what 9 out of 10 dentists think, I only see two realistic possibilities.
Most likely, Gingrich commits an unrecoverable error in the primaries and we run Mitt. The press launches a blitz on him that makes their coverage of last time look tame, and it is very effective. Mitt squeaks out a win if, in the general, he goes just a little to the right of where he is now, which pacifies the base and carries those independents who aren't sociopaths and have IQ's over 95. Or he plays it down the middle and loses by 5 percent.
Outside chance, Newt holds it together. The press goes to war with their usual lies, but it's a suckers' play. Newt makes them look like fools and slaughters Clinton 65 to 35 percent. The progressives may be evil, but they ain't dumb.