Other Turkish Voices You Might Want to Hear
In the comments below my open letter to Turkey and Israel, our member Israel P wrote, "Claire, I often wonder if you are wearing blinders or rose-colored glasses or what." He linked to the news that the deputy prime minister of Turkey has hinted of his enthusiasm for airstrikes on Israel.
After assuring both Libyans and Turks that Turkey was not involved in airstrikes on Libya, Deputy Prime Minister Bülent Arınç, of Turkey, said, “We wish that the United Nations had made such resolutions and countries had taken action in the face of incidents in Gaza, Palestine and the other regions.”
My response: If I were wearing rose-colored glasses, I wouldn't have seen the need to write that letter in the first place, would I?
There's obviously a big problem here. What I'd like to counter, however, is what seems to be a common Israeli conception (and here you are aptly-named, Israel), that this is the only point of view on offer in Turkey. It is not.
I'd like you to read this recent interview in Turkish Policy Quarterly with Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the head of the opposition CHP, for example. Read the whole thing, but note this particularly:
What are your views on the Turkish government’s “zero problems with neighbors” policies? Are these regional policies adversely affecting relations with traditional allies like Israel, Azerbaijan, U.S., and NATO?
Kılıçdaroğlu: Put bluntly, I say that the “zero problems with neighbors” policy as pursued by the AKP Government has failed, indeed, backfired in most instances. While there is more to come, the costs of this failure are already visible. The state of our relations with Azerbaijan is just one case in point. The approach of good neighborly relations with other countries – a traditional goal of Turkish foreign policy – dates back from the early years of our Republic: Atatürk tried to improve our relations with our neighbors and forged alliances with them. As a policy, it is not new. What is new is its fancy nickname, a catchphrase that distorts reality, to our country’s disadvantage. What is different from the past is the AKP’s failure to attain the desired outcome with this policy. In fact, those bilateral problems that existed with our neighbors when the AKP came to power in 2002 remain unresolved today. The development of trade and economic relations with our neighbors is a good thing, but it does not prove the success of the “zero problems with neighbors” policy. All of our problems with our neighbors remain unsolved while new troubles constantly arise in almost all of our relationships. On a broader scale, because of its regional policies, Turkey has in effect distanced itself from its allies and friends in the Euro-Atlantic community. Its deteriorated relationship with Israel has disqualified Turkey from playing any meaningful role in the Middle East peace process. Turkey is perceived now as a party to the Arab-Israeli conflict, and no longer as a trusted intermediary. ...
Does the deterioration of relations with Israel – that has been intensifying since the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos in January 2009 – serve Turkey’s interests?
Kılıçdaroğlu: The answer is no. In the first place, the deterioration of our relations with Israel has caused significant losses in the various dimensions of our bilateral relationship. Trade and tourism went down. Cooperation in certain critical fields does not exist anymore. Turkish companies today are not welcome in Israel. The same applies for Israeli trade and economic ventures in Turkey. But the greater loss is of a strategic nature and affects the entire region. Although Turkey is the leading power in the area, no longer enjoying the trust of Israel puts it out of the Middle East equation, further weakening the prospects of peace and stability in this key region. The persistence of the Arab-Israeli conflict and the posturing of countries from both within and outside of the region could unexpectedly lead to situations that might hurt Turkey’s vital national interests.
Get it? So, you ask, how is the CHP polling? That's actually an incredibly complicated question--if I get into the details of Turkish electoral law and districting, I'll bore everyone senseless--but here's a pretty good analysis. But these poll numbers have fluctuated wildly over the past year, and it's just too early to say how the elections will shake out.
My main point: It's simply not the case that Bülent Arınç represents a monolithic Turkish perspective. There are many Turks who are every bit as reasonable as you are, Israel.
Pun intended.
- Comment (9)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (2)
Comments :
Dec '10
Re: Other Turkish Voices You Might Want to Hear
If the AKP crosses the 50% threshold at a future election, how long before the AKP line IS the only viewpoint permitted to be held in Turkey?
Feb '11
Re: Other Turkish Voices You Might Want to Hear
Today has been Purim here in Jerusalem, so between the obligations of the day and the visiting grandchildren, I am only now reading your challenge, Claire.
In writing up a response, I have run up against your word limit and will try to respond properly tomorrow.
Re: Other Turkish Voices You Might Want to Hear
Israel P.: Today has been Purim here in Jerusalem, so between the obligations of the day and the visiting grandchildren, I am only now reading your challenge, Claire.
In writing up a response, I have run up against your word limit and will try to respond properly tomorrow. · Mar 21 at 12:55pm
It's not a challenge--I'm just pointing something out to fill in your picture of Turkey more completely.
Feb '11
Re: Other Turkish Voices You Might Want to Hear
Let's divide this into personal and political.
My identity dictates much of what I say, so permit me a few words to define myself. I am US-born, but have lived nearly thirty-eight of my sixty-three years in Israel. America has been good to me and my family since my mother's parents and my father's grandparents arrived during the fifteen years preceding WWI.
I follow US events more closely than those here in Israel - I can probably name way more Senators than Knesset members - but that is a matter of interest and intellectual stimulation. (Politics here is boring and hopeless.)
But when it comes right down to it, "Is it good for the Jews?" is where it's at for me.
I served in a reserve combat unit of the IDF until eight years ago and two of my sons have served in actual combat. I drove the roads around Hevron from the Jerusalem suburbs to Beer-Sheva twice a day, until three years ago and continue to visit Hevron itself several times a year. I was never much of a demonstrator, but I was out with the feckless protestors of the Gush Katif fiasco.
Feb '11
Re: Other Turkish Voices You Might Want to Hear
Claire, I don't doubt that you know many decent Turkish people, many even in public life. But fact is, they are not the ones in power. They are not the ones who dictate the tone, control foreign policy, make treaties and public pronouncements, send provocateurs and weapons to Gaza, etc.
It's like Tom Clancy who always seems to have the Americans lopping off the head of an enemy government, leaving the locals cheering, grateful and friendly. I cannot believe that Turkey is like that and our leaders – American and Israeli both – cannot afford to believe it either. If it were so simple, the current government would not have been elected. They were pretty clear what they were beforehand. And does anyone see them losing an election and going home any time soon?
Have a look at http://www.steynonline.com/content/view/3842/28/. An excerpt:
I'd love to hear you and Mark debate this by podcast.
Re: Other Turkish Voices You Might Want to Hear
So what do you conclude from this? Should I stop trying to point out to people in Turkey that these policies are no more "good for the Turks" than they are "good for the Jews?" Should Israel stop trying to point this out? Should other friends of Turkey stop pointing it out? Should Turks? Seems a bit passive and hopeless to me, especially given that more than half the country did not vote for the AKP, and of those who did, most did not--according to very reliable polling data--vote on foreign policy grounds, but on economic grounds.
Feb '11
Re: Other Turkish Voices You Might Want to Hear
By all means, Claire, encourage the good people in your adopted land. Encourage them to make the right choices and encourage them to succeed in changing their country (and countrymen) for the better.
And, yes, tell us about your efforts and how its working out. And about the bits of fertile ground in what seems to be hostile territory.
I am happy to root for the reliable polling data you cite. We'll see if the nearly 47% of the last elections goes back at least as low as their 2002 victory. We'll see if they can put together a coalition even with a smaller plurality. And we'll see if they know how to go home, if someone else is victorious. Surely someone famous must have said that the test of a democratic government is how it behaves when it loses.
We, the healthy cynics, generally don't get further than the headline "AKP RE-ELECTED."
You probably need your optimism and I congratulate you on maintaining it. But I am wary about its spreading within communities like Ricochet. (as if there are such)
Re: Other Turkish Voices You Might Want to Hear
I just want to quickly correct any misunderstanding I've inadvertently propagated. KONDA's is reliable polling data--I've looked closely at their methods and spoken to them about how they do polling; they have a good predictive record. Haberturk/Konsensüs has a pro-AKP agenda, and I don't know enough about their methodology to say anything confident about their results. For that poll, I'd guess we're looking at a very large margin of error, in the first place; in the second, it's hard to know how to interpret it, even if it's a very well-conducted poll (because of the complexity of Turkish districting, the 10 percent rule, and many other factors that can result in a big difference between "the government people want" and "the government they get.")
I'd like to see facts--not optimism--spreading on Ricochet. Everything I've said is something you can confirm for yourself; no need to take my word for it. The AKP will be re-elected, but the margins and coalitions are right now undecided.
Dec '10
Re: Other Turkish Voices You Might Want to Hear
Claire, as I asked at #1, if the AKP exceeds 50% of the vote at a future election, will it seek to strip secularism out of Turkey's constitution?