Optimism or Pessimism?
Commentary devoted much of its November, 2011 issue to a single question: Are You Optimistic or Pessimistic about America’s Future? Mark Steyn made a case for pessimism; John Podhoretz made a case for optimism – and forty-one others responded in brief to the question as well. John Yoo was one of these, as was I.
John Podhoretz' piece is now online, as are the pieces by Mark Steyn and John Yoo. Mine was posted at noon today. Here is how it begins:
We live at the end of an era—at a time when the old order can no longer be sustained and a new set of arrangements has yet to emerge. It is a time fraught with discomfort, distress, and anxiety. Millions of Americans are looking for work; millions more have given up the search; and further millions are underemployed. All of them are having trouble making ends meet, and those fortunate enough to have steady work fear that a market collapse, rampant inflation, or a government desperate for revenues will deprive them of their savings.
If this sounds to you pessimistic in the extreme, you should continue. The next paragraph begins with this sentence: “This is also, however, a time of unparalleled opportunity.” If this sparks your interest, read on – and leave your comments below.
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Jul '11
Re: Optimism or Pessimism?
We are living off the vestiges of a bygone era which is slowly realizing that there is indeed a problem in our country. The answers to the problems as I see them are not the same answers as the products of today's inferior public education system sees them. The differences between free market capitalists, social conservatives, bribed RINO politicians, bribed Dem politicians, liberal ideologues and Keynsian fools are so profound as to really just provide mild changes in course in our inexorable decline in to the Ayn Randian nightmare outlined 60 years ago. When resources diminish and the mental illness of society still is trying to feed off the carcass of the diminishing producing class we will hit the wall. It is not an if but a when.
Edited on Nov 9, 2011 at 6:13pmFeb '11
Re: Optimism or Pessimism?
I got stuck at this: "They now know that there is no such thing as a free lunch..."
Actually, I think a huge number of people inhabiting this slice of North America have no idea that there is no such thing as a free lunch- and free dinner, breakfast, and midnight snack. In fact they think if the catering doesn't arrive when desired some rich republican stole it, somehow.
The democratic party has done everything it can to make that so- and they've done a good job.
Specifically, I recall something Dr. Hanson wrote about. That is, in California illegals get vast benefits from the welfare state- yet the endless petty rules and regulations that pester and burden most everyone else simply aren't enforced. That would be racist.
So we have in effect one law for those statistically quite likely to vote democratic, another entirely different law for those not especially likely to vote democratic.
Equality before the law has been allowed to slip away. It won't be brought back without much rage from those who benefit from its neglect.
Nothing I've seen from the GOP makes me think they are up to that challenge.
Jun '10
Re: Optimism or Pessimism?
Xennady: I got stuck at this: "They now know that there is no such thing as a free lunch..."
Actually, I think a huge number of people inhabiting this slice of North America have no idea that there is no such thing as a free lunch- and free dinner, breakfast, and midnight snack. In fact they think if the catering doesn't arrive when desired some rich republican stole it, somehow.
LIKE!
Jun '11
Re: Optimism or Pessimism?
I'm pessimistic. Any working person and small business person like me is pessimistic. Foreign policy, monetary policy, the economy are all in shambles and that's not the biggest issue.
Businesses in general are cutting head count to prop up themselves. i.e. profits by decreasing employment. That's what is happening with American business, small and large. Get more from less number of employees. Its all we have in American business.
May '10
Re: Optimism or Pessimism?
I'm going to go ahead and be a broken record. Prof. Rahe, you MIGHT be right IF Europe "blows up" in the next 12 months and Americans are faced with two candidates who can give a clear vision of the choices in November 2012...and if Mr. Inevitable can have a spinal graft and offer to help Americans see the necessity of enduring the "blood, toil, tears, and sweat".
I'm unconvinced that today's American Idol population is yet ready to do what it takes...
May '10
Re: Optimism or Pessimism?
I'm not sure whether to be optimistic or pessimistic. What intrigues me at this pivotal time in our history is that a time of precisely this sort was predicted a number of years ago in the book, "The fourth Turning," by Strauss and Howe. That book in concert with their earlier work, "Generations", provides a basis for cautious optimism, in my opinion. In a nutshell, they predicted some years ago that america would reach a pivotal turning point at just about this point in our history. They couldn't know what the precipitating factors would be, nor could they say for certain what the outcome would be, but their analysis provided reason to hope that we could navigate these shoals successfully. If you haven't read it, I would endorse it.
Sep '10
Re: Optimism or Pessimism?
First we are in this situation because of the corrupt practices of both parties and a political class that appears incapable of placing a priority on anything other than their own self-interest. When someone consistently refrains from criticizing either one of the parties it makes one wonder if it is not out of the same motivation. FDR, LBJ and BHO have been primary contributors to our current problems, but people like Hoover, Nixon and Bush certainly deserve honorable mention. Virtually no one in either party currently seems willing to come to grips with the enormity of the problems being faced and until this happens there is little to be optimistic about.
Feb '10
Re: Optimism or Pessimism?
You beat me to it. Prof. Rahe's post reminded me strongly of this book.
I would add there is an excellent website called Generational Dynamics written by John Xenakis, a follower of Strauss and Howe. He's taken their theories a bit farther, combining them in a cross-disciplinary way with ideas from system dynamics and more. I also highly recommend his book, Generational Dynamics for Historians.
As you pointed out, we are in a generational Crisis era. The exact sequence of events that will occur cannot be known; but there are many general predictions that can be made "with mathematical certainty" as John is fond of saying. For example, since 2003 he had been saying we were headed for a major economic crash, and around that time, when everyone was concerned about Iraq falling into civil war, he analyzed Iraq's generational history and said that would not be possible.
Like anyone might, sometimes he gets ahead of himself and the methodology and makes some unfounded assumptions. However, I've found the Generational Dynamics theory to be a wonderful addition to my set of tools for understanding the world.
I should mention in passing that John Xenakis is a perennial pessimist, yet he thinks we'll be doing fine in 15-20 years. After everything goes crazy and we go through World War III. ;-)
Edited on Nov 10, 2011 at 3:50amFeb '10
Re: Optimism or Pessimism?
Xennady: I got stuck at this: "They now know that there is no such thing as a free lunch..."
Actually, I think a huge number of people inhabiting this slice of North America have no idea that there is no such thing as a free lunch- and free dinner, breakfast, and midnight snack. In fact they think if the catering doesn't arrive when desired some rich republican stole it, somehow.
My second reaction to Prof. Rahe's post.
The problem is there are still way too many people who "know so many things that ain't so."
My fear is we must experience a TRUE crisis-- one which makes 2008 look like a cakewalk-- before we all wake up.
Will we recover after that? I do not know. Crisis periods are important tipping points, and a small push could tip us in the right direction or the wrong one. During crisis periods, leaders may find they have either hugely outsized influence (if they are able to be in the right place at the right time to provide that tipping "nudge") or entirely powerless (if they continue to play by the rules that used to work in pre-crisis times).
Oct '10
Re: Optimism or Pessimism?
I was ready for that first paragraph to segue into The Second Coming by Yeats,but the encouraging outlook you present after that combined nicely with my first cup of coffee. If it weren't for that Ohio vote on collective bargaining, You would have me whistling on the way to work. However:
Xennady: I got stuck at this: "They now know that there is no such thing as a free lunch..."
Actually, I think a huge number of people inhabiting this slice of North America have no idea that there is no such thing as a free lunch- and free dinner, breakfast, and midnight snack.
Xennady got a lot of commentters attention with this for good reason; it's very likely true. The $6400000000000 question is, is this 'huge number of people' a majority, or large enough to steer us off a cliff? Just when I've re-convinced myself that we're a center-right country returning to its senses, Ohio votes to return to public-union policy that's bankrupting not just it, or the country, but a big swath of Europe too. Are these voters paying attention? How many of these people are there?
Re: Optimism or Pessimism?
Keep in mind that, at the very moment that 61% of those voting in Ohio voted to overturn John Kasich's public-sector collective-bargaining reform, 66% of those voting votes to reject Obamacare. Ohio is cruising for a bruising on the state level. On the national level, it is likely to be with us. As for John Kasich and the Ohio Republicans, they were outspent something like ten-to-one by the unions. Their loss in this case was their fault. When our side goes limp, the other side walks all over us. It is going to be a real struggle. But we can win. I only wish that we had a standard-bearer who could credibly make the conservative argument. Perry appears to be toast. Cain is not, in the end, serious. He has not done and is not doing his homework regarding national affairs in the larger sense. And Newt is, well, Newt. That leaves us with the chameleon.
Feb '10
Re: Optimism or Pessimism?
The other reason I'm pessimistic is that education is taken over by the liberal revisionists, and are so firmly lodged that I don't even see much of an effort by conservatives to fight them back or dislodge them.
It doesn't matter what the truth really is on the ground if people are so indoctrinated they cannot see what's right in front of their faces. That is, unless the truth becomes so blindingly obvious that it truly becomes undeniable.
Historically, though, truth is complex, and ideology dominates over reality/truth. We have been very fortunate to have had a mostly correct and good set of ideologies guiding us throughout our history, but most of them are now largely discredited in the popular mind.
Jul '11
Re: Optimism or Pessimism?
Busy System Admin
With what should be the collapse of our fiat currency there is a great opportunity to overturn the liberal unions corrupting our children with revisionist history. Perhaps a grand discrediting of the social scientists will be the answer to the future.
Feb '11
Re: Optimism or Pessimism?
Busy System Admin
I would add there is an excellent website called Generational Dynamics written by John Xenakis, a follower of Strauss and Howe. He's taken their theories a bit farther, combining them in a cross-disciplinary way with ideas from system dynamics and more. I also highly recommend his book, Generational Dynamics for Historians.
Many thanks for that link, and I'd like to note that I quoted from one of your comments here in a different thread- and thanks for that comment too.