Opinion Polls We Can Just Throw Out
Claire Berlinski, Ed. ·
May 19, 2011 at 4:28am
Spot the methodological flaw:
Turkish people are pessimistic about the state of press freedom, with 53.2 percent saying in a recent survey that the government limits the media and 55.4 percent agreeing that journalists are afraid to speak their minds.
The survey, which covered political and social issues as well as those concerning the media, polled 1,512 people over the phone in 26 provinces between April 6 and 12. Titled “The Perception of Democracy in Turkey,” it was prepared by the Ankara-based MetroPOLL survey company for the National Democratic Institute.
- Comment (11)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (1)
Comments :
Oct '10
Re: Opinion Polls We Can Just Throw Out
Could it be that interrogating telephone accessible Turks about their fondness for the government might yield suspect results?
Re: Opinion Polls We Can Just Throw Out
It's sure not how I'd go about asking people whether they think they live in an authoritarian country where free expression is stifled.
Sep '10
Re: Opinion Polls We Can Just Throw Out
The Truman/Dewey phenomenon?
Headline should read Government Limits Press, Turks with Telephones Say.
My take on polling in general is here.
Re: Opinion Polls We Can Just Throw Out
Franco: The Truman/Dewey phenomenon?
Headline should read Government Limits Press, Turks with Telephones Say.
My take on polling in general is here. · May 19 at 5:02am
I used to manage the California operations of the now-defunct Voter News Service--the news agency that infamously awarded the election to Bush, Gore, and Bush again all in one night. I stress that I had nothing to do with that. I'll just say that I agree with your assessment. But of course, the results of this poll will immediately be entered into the annals of Great Historic Truth.
It's pretty rare for me to read about an opinion poll in Turkey that isn't so flawed just on the face of it that you shake your head in wonderment. But this stuff gets picked up and recited everywhere.
Edited on May 19, 2011 at 5:12amRe: Opinion Polls We Can Just Throw Out
From Twitter, three hours ago:
Mar '11
Re: Opinion Polls We Can Just Throw Out
Claire Berlinski, Ed.: From Twitter, three hours ago:
May 19 at 5:58am
And people have been questioning the preeminence of English as a universal language!
Aug '10
Re: Opinion Polls We Can Just Throw Out
Ok, you lost me. Are you saying that Turkish authorities routinely listen in on phone calls? If so, why did people agree with statements critical of the government.
Or is the issue with it being a phone survey - while the US has restrictions on marketers calling cell phones, I don't automatically assume that applies in other countries. So when they say a phone survey, I don't assume it is solely landlines. Cell phone use, particularly in second and third world nations is extremely high.
Mar '11
Re: Opinion Polls We Can Just Throw Out
I assume that in Turkey everyone and his/her brother has a cell phone. So there are two problems: First, not sampling those who exclusively use cell phones and have no landlines, who, I m guessing, are probably younger and more mobile. Second some of those with landlines who fear, rightly or wrongly, that the government is infringing on press freedoms, are also likely to believe (rightly or wrongly) that their phone may be monitored and thus unlikely to speak ill of those thought to be listening in.
Re: Opinion Polls We Can Just Throw Out
I have no idea how often they actually do. But many in Turkey believe (implausibly) that wiretapping is very widespread. Whether or not they're right, you can be pretty sure that someone who believes critics of the government will be punished is unlikely to be truthful about this opinion on the phone! (And yes, in a way, you could even interpret the 55.4 percent who said journalists don't feel free to speak their minds as implicitly revealing a contradictory view--obviously, they felt sufficiently confident in their rights to speak their own minds.)
Beyond that, yes, phone polling is inherently problematic because it skews toward phone owners, etc.
Sep '10
Re: Opinion Polls We Can Just Throw Out
We need a poll to first determine how many believe their phone is tapped. Then a poll could be conducted with those results accounted for.
Question :Do the authorities listen to your conversations..
A always
B often
C occasionally
D never
E don't' know
If respondent answers either D or E:
Question:You aren't just saying that, right?
Hopefully no mental institutions will be on the random dial list. Make sure when dialing from the phone bank that there is no background chatter, which may skew results.
If surveyor hears breathing or other odd sounds on the line when conducting interview, politely terminate the call.
Edited on May 19, 2011 at 7:30amAug '10
Re: Opinion Polls We Can Just Throw Out
Which is only a problem if the set of phone owners isn't representative of the population - one of the reasons I wondered if Turkey had laws regarding cell phone solicitations analogous to the US.