Open Thread Friday: What Do You Expect From the Next Four Years?
OK, Ricochetti, let's switch the focus from campaigning to governing for a bit.
Assume for a moment that Mitt Romney takes the presidential election in November. What do you expect from four years of a Romney administration? Will he be able to right the nation's economic ship? Will there be a decided change in how America is perceived abroad? Will his performance exceed the expectations generated by his campaign or confirm the doubts of the skeptics?
Conversely, imagine a second Obama term (note: this may require laudanum). Will the president, with no further elections on the horizon, become an unapologetic liberal steamroller? Or will he, with his eyes set on a legacy, attempt to forge grand compromises of the type that one would have expected based on his 2008 rhetoric.
We're open for any and all diagnoses. Let us know in the comments.
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Comments:
May '10
Re: Open Thread Friday: What Do You Expect From the Next Four Years?
The divide in Congress reflects a real divide in the country. For Romney to be successful he is going to have to continually take his message to the electorate and attempt to persuade them such that they pressure their Democratic Senators to get on board -- starting with a (retroactive) solution to the fiscal cliff. If he is unable to do that, then the only real accomplishment will be his ability to call off the current aggressive regulatory regime which should make businesses a bit more comfortable making investments, which might be enough to allow growth to accelerate.
Obama will forge ahead with an aggressive liberal agenda using the administrative state and daring the courts to stop him. I can't believe there could be any question on that point.
Dec '10
Re: Open Thread Friday: What Do You Expect From the Next Four Years?
I think at least 4 years post Obama will be like the cleanup after a disaster. The rebuilding won't begin until all the wreckage has been removed.
If Obama wins, I expect more of the same only with more of a liberal bent. He'll be just as stymied if we keep at least the House, but he will take the rhetoric to new heights. He doesn't just want a legacy; he wants a specific legacy of fundamentally transforming this nation from a constitutional republic into a social democracy.
Mar '11
Re: Open Thread Friday: What Do You Expect From the Next Four Years?
I would expect a Romney term to look a lot like this Obama term has looked... but in reverse. In other words, 2 years of undoing what damage Obama did in his first 2 years followed by a lot of water treading.
But, of course, we'll never know.
When Obama wins he becomes a lame duck from day 1. There will be a lot of big speeches that will scare us all but he has neither the capacity for, nor the desire to, lead.
Sept 28, 2016 will look a lot like today... except we'll owe the Chinese more.
Mar '11
Re: Open Thread Friday: What Do You Expect From the Next Four Years?
Regardless of who is elected the next four years will be event driven rather than agenda driven. Domestically there will be a series of fiscal crisis at the municipal, state and federal level reinforcing current downward economic trends. Abroad multiple crisis in the Middle East (Syria is a prelude) will consume attention, as well as drive up oil prices significantly, while economic conditions in Europe deteriorate to such an extent that several governments fall. Greece, Portugal and Spain were all ruled by authoritarian regimes as recently as the late 1970's, a reprise is likely.
Whatever agendas Romney or Obama believe they have for the next four years they will end up doing something very different.
Re: Open Thread Friday: What Do You Expect From the Next Four Years?
Fundamentally sound analysis, Roberto. Talk to any White House veteran and this is one of the first things they'd mention as advice to a potential president. One of the biggest mistakes most candidates make is dramatically underestimating how reactive the job is.
Edited on September 28, 2012 at 6:50pmNov '11
Re: Open Thread Friday: What Do You Expect From the Next Four Years?
Doesn't it depend a lot on Congress?
Jul '10
Re: Open Thread Friday: What Do You Expect From the Next Four Years?
When Mitt's elected, the riots will be blamed on Conservatives.
Aug '10
Re: Open Thread Friday: What Do You Expect From the Next Four Years?
If Romney is elected I expect initial optimism from the business world followed by a couple of pretty tough years getting the economy turned around which will happen in about 2015.
If Obama is reelected I expect him to ignore congress and implement his nefarious liberal policies by executive fiat. Who's going to stop him? The Supreme Court? Ha!
Aug '12
Re: Open Thread Friday: What Do You Expect From the Next Four Years?
With Mitt's business background, he knows the entrepreneurs' problems and can relate to them. It may take a while to weed out the deadwood, but I expect that Romney will work quickly to change the 'crucify them!' mentality of regulatory agencies. Knowing this, I expect business owners and investors to begin to put expansion plans into place as early as November 7.
Obama on the other hand, has already demonstrated that he will implement whatever he wants even if it means doing so extraconstitutionally.
Apr '11
Re: Open Thread Friday: What Do You Expect From the Next Four Years?
I've often read that corporations are sitting on hoards on liquid cash due to 'uncertainty', and a Romney win will immediately release hundreds of billions for new hiring, retooling, and investment.
Everything Romney will propose will be pro-growth, and growth is the thing that cures all ills in a capitalist society.
(except one! - - - the resentment of wealth disparity even as all boats are rising. This is why even affluent Liberals hate pro-growth policies. They can't stand it when "country club types" get 'filthy' rich. So, no matter how successful Romney is, 40% will still be against him on the grounds of 'fairness' and those that are 'left behind'.)
Apr '11
Re: Open Thread Friday: What Do You Expect From the Next Four Years?
If Obama wins, well, I've already emigrated to Japan, so I would then retroactively say "So long, suckers!!
May '10
Re: Open Thread Friday: What Do You Expect From the Next Four Years?
Ask an Obama supporter what they expected four years ago - by now we would have universal, single-payer healthcare, a balanced budget, a Palestinian state and the entire Middle East hailing the Nobel laureate in the White House who, by now, should be ready to receive reelection for life by acclamation. (Partly because the Republican Party, having seen the brilliance and wisdom of The One, would have resigned all offices and now be regulated to the Southern Confederacy Party.)
When it comes to politics I expect nothing. I am usually well rewarded.
Edited on September 28, 2012 at 7:11pmJan '11
Re: Open Thread Friday: What Do You Expect From the Next Four Years?
If Romney wins: some business will turn around, some credit will loosen up. But the debris from the 2008 collapse (i.e., the damage from millions of underwater mortgages bubbling to the surface in one form or another) will still be with us. Entitlements will still be with us.
Obama's big disaster is that instead of addressing problems, he's blowing trillions on self-serving partisan nonsense. If we get Romney, he's still going to have to address those problems (that's what we want, after all) but that's a dirty job - the prima donna Obama doesn't want to get any mud on his halo.
If Obama gets re-elected,
If Obama gets re-elected,
If Obama ... [can't continue ... nausea ... overwhelming ... ]
Apr '11
Re: Open Thread Friday: What Do You Expect From the Next Four Years?
At The Rubicon: With Mitt's business background, he knows the entrepreneurs' problems and can relate to them. It may take a while to weed out the deadwood, but I expect that Romney will work quickly to change the 'crucify them!' mentality of regulatory agencies. Knowing this, I expect business owners and investors to begin to put expansion plans into place as early as November 7.
Obama on the other hand, has already demonstrated that he will implement whatever he wants even if it means doing so extraconstitutionally. · 9 minutes ago
Yes, changing the regulatory environment will be wonderful. But is it true that hundreds of thousands of new regulations were also implemented under Bush 43?
May '12
Re: Open Thread Friday: What Do You Expect From the Next Four Years?
From Romney, I expect the beginning of a Recovery. I do not expect his to be the most stellar of Presidencies, but I expect it to be one this nation will be glad to have enjoyed the benefit of, once they get past the initial pain. People being people, they will however, give Mitt Romney as little credit for helping to turn things around as they give Warren Harding credit for ending his Depression a lot sooner than the one Roosevelt is given credit for ending.
From Obama, I expect more of the same, only worse. But I don't think we'll go over the cliff. Just spend a perilously long time dancing on the edge of it.
Either way, we'll have made our choice, and got what we deserve.
Apr '11
Re: Open Thread Friday: What Do You Expect From the Next Four Years?
HoosierDaddy
At The Rubicon: With Mitt's business background, he knows the entrepreneurs' problems and can relate to them. It may take a while to weed out the deadwood, but I expect that Romney will work quickly to change the 'crucify them!' mentality of regulatory agencies. Knowing this, I expect business owners and investors to begin to put expansion plans into place as early as November 7.
Obama on the other hand, has already demonstrated that he will implement whatever he wants even if it means doing so extraconstitutionally. · 9 minutes ago
Yes, changing the regulatory environment will be wonderful. But is it true that hundreds of thousands of new regulations were also implemented under Bush 43? · 0 minutes ago
Forget Bush.
Think he will get rid of a lot of those that affect economic growth...who ever instituted them.
Jul '12
Re: Open Thread Friday: What Do You Expect From the Next Four Years?
This is kinda what worries me. Even if we assume the best-case scenario, the fiscal hole we're in will take a lot longer than four years to dig ourselves out of. Which means that when the 2016 election season starts up, President Romney (if he's truthful) will have to sound a lot like Obama does today: "I know things are still bad. But I inherited a big mess, and I need more time."
Am I wrong? Apart from repealing ObamaCare before it kicks in fully, are there real ways in which Romney and a Republican Congress could actually turn things around in four years or less?
May '10
Re: Open Thread Friday: What Do You Expect From the Next Four Years?
Its not the regulations per se -- though of course that matters -- but the attitude and communication. The Bush administration at least understood that businesses need clarity and they provided that.
I once heard a Dept. of Ed official say to a group of businesses at a negotiated rule-making session, "We don't want to make the line clear, because then you will move right up next to the line. We don't want you to know where the line is, so that you keep well away from it."
This is the hostility that, in part, has businesses stymied.
Jul '10
Re: Open Thread Friday: What Do You Expect From the Next Four Years?
And Jesus answered and said to them, “See to it that no one misleads you. For many will come in My name, saying, ‘I am the Christ,’ and will mislead many. You will be hearing of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not frightened, for those things must take place, but that is not yet the end. For nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom, and in various places there will be famines and earthquakes. But all these things aremerely the beginning of birth pangs. Then they will deliver you to tribulation, and will kill you, and you will be hated by all nations because of My name. At that time many will fall away and will betray one another and hate one another. Many false prophets will arise and will mislead many. Because lawlessness is increased, most people’s love will grow cold. But the one who endures to the end, he will be saved. This gospel of the kingdom shall be preached in the whole world as a testimony to all the nations, and then the end will come."
Okay, so I'm feeling a little apocalyptic today.
Oct '10
Re: Open Thread Friday: What Do You Expect From the Next Four Years?
Romney will work hard to get spending under control, but will need to be more persuasive than he has shown himself to be in order to get the public's support. Employing Paul Ryan as spokesman might help. If he does that, he will likely follow-up by enacting liberal outreach policies, as Nixon did by creating the EPA and affirmative action, because, like Nixon, he appears to lack strong political convictions.
If Obama's re-elected, we risk going off a fiscal cliff in 2013 or 2014. With luck, Republicans get a veto-proof majority in 2014, if it isn't too late.
Edited on September 28, 2012 at 7:29pm