Open Borders and a Blanket Amnesty...
...for the Norks.
So, John Bolton thinks that:
serious efforts need to be made with China on reunifying the Korean peninsula, a goal made ever more urgent by the clear transition of power now underway in Pyongyang as Kim Jong Il faces the actuarial tables. North Korea's threat will only end when it does, and that day cannot come soon enough
I agree. As a first salvo, let's proclaim that the U.S. will give asylum to all North Korean refugees, with no trials for the vast majority of the regime. I think this would lead to a flood of North Koreans bolting. If successful, it would cost us a ton, tens (maybe hundreds) of billions. And assimilating hundreds of thousands to a few million starving peasants half a world away over a 5-10 year period would be a massive undertaking. Nevertheless, I think we should do it.
There are many reasons offered for why the Pink Chinese prop up North Korea, one of the more conventional is that they fear the refugee fallout of a DPRK collapse. Let's remove that concern. If they're still unhelpful, then China has made its strategic aims for our "partnership" quite clear. If it gets them on board, then we've gained a great deal of leverage over a weakened regime.
As for the amnesty, it's purpose would be to co-opt the Nork middle management, the class responsible for actually implementing policy. Ultimately, along with the Chinese, these are the gate keepers. Of course, if we should get our hands on Kim Jong-Il, the Dear Pipsqueak, or a few others they should be given a quick trip to, and from, the Tarpeian Rock.
Well, that's my idealistic crackpot pitch for today. Can we do it? Should we?
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Comments :
May '10
Re: Open Borders and a Blanket Amnesty...
I really like this idea.
May '10
Re: Open Borders and a Blanket Amnesty...
On principle, I'm on board. I'm sure there's more than a few stifled John Yoo's among the North Koreans who would be assets to the U.S. Plus, not a single one of them enjoys self-detonating, which is good.
I doubt, though, that this would alleviate immigration to China in any measurable way. The anticipation there is for chaotic, cross-border movement of refugees, which I think would be unaffected by slow, deliberate acceptance and processing of new Americans.
Still, I like it.
Edited on Nov 24, 2010 at 10:40pmAug '10
Re: Open Borders and a Blanket Amnesty...
We, the U.N., and every sane ally of ours on the planet have been trying to do this since the mid-1950's. China has backed the Norks to the hilt and blocked or sabotaged every overture aimed at reunification. The South Koreans have made Herculean efforts, and spent fortunes over the decades to heal the divide.
For some mysterious reason the ChiComs want a pure Stalinist oasis; as if to prove that an Orwellian, 1984-style state can exist on earth. They say they fear "a flood of refugees". Well, so did Germany in the days of East/West division, and yet they worked it out.
There are thought processes going on in Asian leaders' minds that we fail to grasp. Inscrutable is a word often used to describe them.
May '10
Re: Open Borders and a Blanket Amnesty...
NK refugees have trouble assimilating into South Korea, let alone the USA.
They are culturally/psychologically damaged people and they cannot function in a society where you have to make decisions for yourself.
Jul '10
Re: Open Borders and a Blanket Amnesty...
Scott Reusser: I doubt, though, that this would alleviate immigration to China in any measurable way. The anticipation there is for chaotic, cross-border movement of refugees, which I think would be unaffected by slow, deliberate acceptance and processing of new Americans.
Edited on Nov 24 at 10:40 pm
Yeah, it couldn't be business as usual. There would have to be some specialized streamlining.
Think big, temporary (actually temporary, not U.N. "temporary") refugee camps and a major U.S. civilian presence, susbstantial Chinese civillian & military & probably South Koreans also. To call it a major logistical nightmare would be an understatement. Like I said, it'd be a very expensive, challenging operation.
Jul '10
Re: Open Borders and a Blanket Amnesty...
outstripp: NK refugees have trouble assimilating into South Korea, let alone the USA.
They are culturally/psychologically damaged people and they cannot function in a society where you have to make decisions for yourself. · Nov 25 at 4:46am
There's obviously alot that's true there. But consider, aren't any refugees who have already made the choice to leave (in defiance of the regime, no less) likely to be the most assimilable? Haven't they displayed the ability to make at least this major choice for themselves?
Jul '10
Re: Open Borders and a Blanket Amnesty...
No kiddng, I certainly don't pretend to understand China's motivations. But probably, probably they don't want Japan muscling up. Outstripp would know far better than I, but I suspect that the Japanese could develop a major, high-tech military with nuclear capabilities in an eyeblink if the Norks push them too far.
Aug '10
Re: Open Borders and a Blanket Amnesty...
Palaeologus
No kiddng, I certainly don't pretend to understand China's motivations. But probably, probably they don't want Japan muscling up. Outstripp would know far better than I, but I suspect that the Japanese could develop a major, high-tech military with nuclear capabilities in an eyeblink if the Norks push them too far. · Nov 25 at 7:50am
Spot on. But, ironically, China appears to be doing just that; pushing Japan to that point. Inscrutable.
Jun '10
Re: Open Borders and a Blanket Amnesty...
outstripp: NK refugees have trouble assimilating into South Korea, let alone the USA.
They are culturally/psychologically damaged people and they cannot function in a society where you have to make decisions for yourself. · Nov 25 at 4:46am
This is a huge point. Allow me to expand on it. The people of North Korea are psychologically damaged, socially retarded, physically depleted, and morally inert. The odious kleptocrats have created an environment that has actually thrown human evolution into reverse. The leadership deserves to be put on trial for their crimes, and hanged if found guilty.
Nov '10
Re: Open Borders and a Blanket Amnesty...
What the ChiComs want is simply an old-fashioned buffer state. They do not want a thriving, free-market democracy directly across the border, for fear that would stir up discontent among their own people. For that reason, China will never support a reunified Korea.
Except for the wretched Palestinians, the Norks are the most comprehensively wrecked people on Earth. After 60 years of Marxist-mandated malnutrition, the average Nork is now six inches shorter than the average Sork. No doubt their minds and spirits are similarly stunted. Assimilation will be extremely difficult, if not impossible.
North Korea is a hell-hole today mainly because the Chinese have propped it up for decades. Why should we make ourselves responsible for a mess China created on its own back porch? Let them handle the refugee disaster when the thing finally collapses.
On this day, let us be truly thankful that the Nork Nightmare is literally on the other side of the world, and not festering on our own border. We have enough problems with Mexico.
Sep '10
Re: Open Borders and a Blanket Amnesty...
River: For some mysterious reason the ChiComs want a pure Stalinist oasis; as if to prove that an Orwellian, 1984-style state can exist on earth. They say they fear "a flood of refugees". Well, so did Germany in the days of East/West division, and yet they worked it out.
There are thought processes going on in Asian leaders' minds that we fail to grasp. Inscrutable is a word often used to describe them. · Nov 25 at 4:15am
My suspicion: China fears that one of the United States' closest allies -- perhaps even with American troops staying there (like they stayed in West Germany after the end of the Cold War) -- could be sitting right on its border. They'd rather prop up a Stalinist regime than stop having a buffer zone.
Nov '10
Re: Open Borders and a Blanket Amnesty...
~Paules
This is a huge point. Allow me to expand on it. The people of North Korea are psychologically damaged, socially retarded, physically depleted, and morally inert. The odious kleptocrats have created an environment that has actually thrown human evolution into reverse.
Outstripp and Paules are not exaggerating in the slightest. In another 60 years, the Norks will be reduced to dwarfish, grunting hominids — or, to use a more appropriate word, Morlocks.
If you think it is a good idea to spend time, money and energy trying to help millions of people who are already slouching toward the Abyss, you better think again.
Jun '10
Re: Open Borders and a Blanket Amnesty...
Lady Kurobara
~Paules
This is a huge point. Allow me to expand on it. The people of North Korea are psychologically damaged, socially retarded, physically depleted, and morally inert. The odious kleptocrats have created an environment that has actually thrown human evolution into reverse.
Outstripp and Paules are not exaggerating in the slightest. In another 60 years, the Norks will be reduced to dwarfish, grunting hominids — or, to use a more appropriate word, Morlocks.
If you think it is a good idea to spend time, money and energy trying to help millions of people who are already slouching toward the Abyss, you better think again. · Nov 25 at 10:44am
Geezy peezy, Lady, and I thought I was over the borderline harsh.
Jul '10
Re: Open Borders and a Blanket Amnesty...
Lady Kurobara
Outstripp and Paules are not exaggerating in the slightest. In another 60 years, the Norks will be reduced to dwarfish, grunting hominids — or, to use a more appropriate word, Morlocks.
If you think it is a good idea to spend time, money and energy trying to help millions of people who are already slouching toward the Abyss, you better think again. · Nov 25 at 10:44am
Well, one objective would be to arrest the horrific anti-development that's been inflicted on those people. But forget the soft-headed mush for a moment. I fail to see how Morlocks with nukes make for a better world. We can't quite manage to isolate the regime because the Chinese won't really support our efforts, maybe this would do the trick.
Lady KurobaraNorth Korea is a hell-hole today mainly because the Chinese have propped it up for decades. Why should we make ourselves responsible for a mess China created on its own back porch? Let them handle the refugee disaster when the thing finally collapses.
· Nov 25 at 10:29am
But is the regime collapsing? Or is it growing bolder, with better delivery systems?
Re: Open Borders and a Blanket Amnesty...
Do you have a better proposal? I'm not saying I endorse the suggestion--it does sound lunatic to me, for the very reasons you say. What are the alternatives? This situation obviously is not going to spontaneously improve.
Aug '10
Re: Open Borders and a Blanket Amnesty...
I'd love to get Mark Steyn's take on this idea: Could a flood of hard-working North Korean refugees into Europe serve as a nice buffer against Islamists' demographic dominance. If Europe's demographic decline is inevitable, is it not reasonable to cast a wider net when recruiting immigrants/refugees?
Jun '10
Re: Open Borders and a Blanket Amnesty...
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
What are the alternatives? This situation obviously is not going to spontaneously improve. · Nov 25 at 11:28am
I think some sort of caretaker government would be in order until the North Korean people were capable of handling their own affairs. This would likely take a couple of generations given the damage inflicted on these poor souls. I would most certainly not turn them loose to their own devices.
Nov '10
Re: Open Borders and a Blanket Amnesty...
~Paules
Geezy peezy, Lady, and I thought I was over the borderline harsh.
Palaeologus
But is the regime collapsing?
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
Do you have a better proposal? What are the alternatives?
Yes, I have taken a very harsh (but logical) position on this issue. No, I do not have a better proposal. In fact, I do not believe that any "good" alternatives exist. And no matter what plan we adopt, the Chinese will sabotage it in every way possible.
I see at least three possible outcomes to the Nork problem — none of them happy.
(1) The Nork regime, propped up by China, lasts indefinitely, and the Nork people continue their miserable slide into de-evolution.
(2) The Nork regime suddenly collapses, triggering a massive refugee crisis that, hopefully, will land in China's lap.
(3) The Nork regime goes completely ape and precipitates (directly or indirectly) a nuclear war.
Forgive me for painting such a bleak picture. You are a good guy, Palaeo, and your heart is in the right place. But if your proposal were put into action, it would inevitably become one of those "good intentions" with which the Highway to Hell is so thickly paved.
Edited on Nov 25, 2010 at 12:55pmJul '10
Re: Open Borders and a Blanket Amnesty...
Hey, Paleo, you definitely know how to get the debate club cranked up, and your heart is very much in the right place. I will respectfully submit arguments against the proposition before us today.
1) Under the de facto immigration policies now in practice, I would defer from solving any problem with mass immigration.
a) I cite Deerbornistan as exhibit one, having opened our borders to Palestinian refugees in a classic instance of American largess, we are left with a large clump of anti-assimilation Middle Easterners with all of the pathologies intact, at best ambivalent about the country they find themselves in, while Palestinians themselves are as anti-American as ever. With anti-assimilation politics dominating some of our most important cities...
b) To my experience, immigrants from leftist countries somehow tend to gravitate to Democratic candidates. Are we seeking to skew our national demographic even more against its traditional roots? Has anyone collected numbers on this?
2) The problem is a Chinese problem, related to their desire for a buffer state. Our support for South Korea is virtuous and sustainable, unlike our European commitments. On purely humanitarian grounds, we should seek resolution, but not accept the onus.
Edited on Nov 25, 2010 at 3:16pmJul '10
Re: Open Borders and a Blanket Amnesty...
The many good critiques are appreciated. A couple of points:
1) If China is unwilling, then so be it. The persuadable who think engagement is paying dividends (I'm skeptical here) will have clear evidence that it's a belligerent power.
2) If China tries to undermine it post-agreement, we'd have plenty of cards to play. My first, heavy-handed thought would be making it clear to China that the U.S. would support ditching Article 9 from Japan's Constitution.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_9_of_the_Japanese_Constitution
In context, they'd have to take it seriously.
3) I think the Lady's three potential scenarios are all worth consideration. Unfortunately, #3 strikes me as the most likely.
All things, good and Nork, come to an end. The Pink Chinese may prop up Kims for awhile, but not forever.
The regime could collapse without firing a shot. It's happened before, obviously. But it's much less likely to collapse if China is supporting it. It seems to me that China is unhappily playing the Soviets to the DPRK's Cuba.
I expect an endgame consistent with Nork policy, back yourself into a corner unnecessarily, and come out shooting.