Only the Supreme Court Can Save the Democrats
In 2012, thirty-three Senate seats will be up for grabs. Twenty-one of these are right now in the hands of Democrats, and two are held by independents who caucus with them.
Yesterday, Mitch McConnell – who may even outdo John Boehner in wiliness – did to the Democratic majority in the Senate what John Boehner had already done to the Democratic minority in the House, and we can look forward to him doing it again and again. He forced them to take a stand on the signature legislative accomplishment of the Obama administration; and like sheep being lead to the slaughter they lined up for execution. There are hardly any Democrats in the House who voted for the repeal of Obamacare, and no Democrat did so in the Senate. Instead, they hung the carcass around their necks like the albatross born by the Ancient Mariner. This they did, cognizant that the party’s hard-left base would turn on them in the primaries if they supported repeal, and this they did in full awareness that the measure is profoundly unpopular and that its unpopularity is steadily growing. I cannot imagine that morale is high among the Democrats in either house.
I have said it before, and I will say it again. Only the Supreme Court can save the Democrats. Were I a party strategist, my hero would be Judge Roger Vinson, who earlier this week made a compelling case for the view that Obamacare is unconstitutional. Were I a Democratic strategist, I would press for an early decision by the Supreme Court. Otherwise, the Democrats will lose their majority in the Senate, and their ranks in the House will be further thinned.
The man who has brought them to this pass may, nonetheless, survive the catastrophe he has inflicted on his party. Barack Obama has more than one ace up his sleeve. Even if the constitutional question has not yet been finally adjudicated, he might profit from the folly of the Republicans. If the dinosaurs in the Republican Party – Romney, Gingrich, Huckabee, and Giuliani – do not get out of the way, they could so muddy the waters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and elsewhere that someone unpalatable or implausible could slip through and secure the nomination.
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Comments :
May '10
Re: Only the Supreme Court Can Save the Democrats
Truly sophisticated political analysis is beyond my mien but, watching the Democrats in the House and Senate dutifully line up and vote again in favor of a "health-care" bill that has been palpably rejected by the people and ruled unconstitutional to boot just speaks of the deliberate tone-deafness and utter contempt they have for the people they are supposed to represent.
That these Solons survive politically election after election is just a thing of wonder to me.
Jul '10
Re: Only the Supreme Court Can Save the Democrats
Many of these Democratic senators take heart from Obama's rise in the polls since November and the $1 billion he plans to spend on getting reelected. And they have a well-founded faith in the ability of the Stupid Party to blow any advantage that may drop from the tree onto its lap. Any party capable of nominating John McCain and allows Lindsey Graham to project himself as its face on the Sunday talk shows is capable of anything.
Jul '10
Re: Only the Supreme Court Can Save the Democrats
I asked over in the Member Area Repealed vs. Struck Down as regards the Obomanation that is Obamacare.
For purposes of settling the argument, it would do us well to have SCOTUS strike this law down. By their actions Democrats have shown they aren't going to give this up. They will deteriorate the system, they will pound the drumbeat in the media, they will not give this up. They are going to 'give' this atrocity to us regardless.
Striking this down will effectively leave them no avenue to try this again for at least 30 years. Repealing will only postpone their actions by 24 months.
Darn it all, we rubes just don't know what's good for us and by golly they are going to make sure we get it and we like it. (Harry Reid himself said this is supported by 80% of the population.)
Re: Only the Supreme Court Can Save the Democrats
It would be ideal if the case reached the Supreme Court in 2013 -- after the slaughtering of the not so innocent.
Sep '10
Re: Only the Supreme Court Can Save the Democrats
It does appear as if Democrats in Congress are between a rock and a hard place. But If O. remains in the WH anything less than 66 seats in the Senate is not earthy shaking. Unlike B. he will use the veto pen. I don’t agree with his policies, but I admire his tenacity, unlike the GOP he does not go all wobbly. I agree with Krauthammer that the tax bill more or less made O. the favorite to win. The Dems line about O-care needing fixing and it’s time to fix it and stop looking in the rear view mirror along with a pickup in economic activity may save a few of them. The Dems will throw Senators that have no chance of winning under the bus. Dodd and the crook from NJ a couple of years back come to mind.
May '10
Re: Only the Supreme Court Can Save the Democrats
Are you suggesting that voters' opinions of Democrats will be swayed by whether or not the Supreme Court supports Obamacare? I doubt that is so.
That's like suggesting people support abortion because of the Roe-v-Wade decision, which is wrong. Views on the matter are not drawn from legal authorities but from political and moral leadership. Voters are not waiting for court guidance before deciding to be for or against Obamacare.
Republicans have more to win or lose from an early decision. They will be able to claim any judicial victory against Obamacare, regardless of whether they deserve the credit or not. If the 2012 elections come around and no headway has been made against Obamacare or, worse, any part of Obamacare has been upheld by SCOTUS, Republicans will suffer from the impatience of voters expecting repeal.
Dec '10
Re: Only the Supreme Court Can Save the Democrats
Can an "unpalatable or implausible" candidate win the White House? As Barack Obama himself proves... you betcha!
Dec '10
Re: Only the Supreme Court Can Save the Democrats
Look at the seats that are up for grabs. Republicans will take the Senate in 2012.
It depends on who is nominated and the campaign as to how many seats it means, but Republicans should easily get enough net seats to get a majority.
And if you believe like I do, that 2010 actually represented a bit of wariness with respect to the Tea Party (especially in Senate races) and that people will get comfortable with Tea Party-backed politicians who are not as wild-eyed as portrayed, then it could be much much better.
Nov '10
Re: Only the Supreme Court Can Save the Democrats
As with Aaron, I don't quite understand the thinking that if the law is struck down prior to the next elections, it's good for Democrats. If we get to the elections prior to the court making a decision, and the Democrats don't turn on the President over this issue, then for sure we will pick up more seats in both houses. If we get a decision prior to the elections and the Democrats continue to beat the drum, it seems to me we will still see more Republican seats won. I guess it is conceivable that voters will say "Well as long as the law is no longer a law, I won't hold democrats accountable." But I don't know that this will happen. The only way, in my limited understanding of the situation, that Democrats hold seats is if the repent before their constituents of the blasphemy they've committed in supporting the bill. Even then I am not sure that all of them who do so will avoid the hangman's noose.
Notice that at no point did I use any military or firearm related analogy. Instead I used religion and capital punishment.
Dec '10
Re: Only the Supreme Court Can Save the Democrats
Aaron Miller
Republicans have more to win or lose from an early decision. They will be able to claim any judicial victory against Obamacare, regardless of whether they deserve the credit or not. If the 2012 elections come around and no headway has been made against Obamacare or, worse, any part of Obamacare has been upheld by SCOTUS, Republicans will suffer from the impatience of voters expecting repeal. · Feb 3 at 11:34am
You seem to have it backwards.
When there is a horrible threat hanging over a person's head, that person tends to support whoever they think can save them from that threat. If Obamacare is still the law of the land in November 2012, the voters who see it as a threat will turn to the Republicans who promise to repeal it when they are in the majority, not to the Democrats who just blocked repeal unanimously in the Senate.
But if the Supreme Court removes the threat before then, why should the voters give credit to the Republicans, when the Court and not the Republicans actually struck down the law?
May '10
Re: Only the Supreme Court Can Save the Democrats
Stuart Creque
But if the Supreme Court removes the threat before then, why should the voters give credit to the Republicans, when the Court and not the Republicans actually struck down the law?
Because that's how the Republicans will spin it. Give politicians a few months on TV and in newspapers to distort reality and they'll do so.
Stuart Creque
If Obamacare is still the law of the land in November 2012, the voters who see it as a threat will turn to the Republicans who promise to repeal it...
Or they will turn to Libertarian candidates. Or they will stay home because they're disheartened.
Forget about how people should vote. Not every voter's a careful analyst or even thinks of politics more than once or twice a week. Many vote on emotion or whimsical notions. Maybe I'm wrong, but I expect Republicans will be punished in some way if they do not achieve at least some headway toward repealing Obamacare.
Of course, most voter attention will be on presidential candidates. Whether or not the GOP puts up a strong presidential candidate will affect voter confidence in the GOP as a whole.
Edited on Feb 3, 2011 at 12:25pmJul '10
Re: Only the Supreme Court Can Save the Democrats
Aaron Miller
Stuart Creque
But if the Supreme Court removes the threat before then, why should the voters give credit to the Republicans, when the Court and not the Republicans actually struck down the law?
Because that's how the Republicans will spin it. Give politicians a few months on TV and in newspapers to distort reality and they'll do so.
Edited on Feb 03 at 12:25 pm
I'm sorry Aaron, but now you have gone too far.
I cannot sit quietly by as you accuse the Republicans of being inteligent.
Republicans Fumble, they do NOT spin! Add to that as P.J. O'Rourke has said, "Republicans will never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity!"
Re: Only the Supreme Court Can Save the Democrats
Aaron Miller
Are you suggesting that voters' opinions of Democrats will be swayed by whether or not the Supreme Court supports Obamacare? I doubt that is so.
Feb 3 at 11:34am
No, I am saying that the voters are likely to consult self-interest on the first Tuesday in November, 2012. They are more apt to look forward than backward. If Obamacare has been declared unconstitutional and is history, it will not weigh heavily in their concerns. If it is still in place and no one knows whether it will be declared unconstitutional, they will vote to have it repealed.
Re: Only the Supreme Court Can Save the Democrats
Keep in mind that voters have a short attention span. Obamacare is a focus of their fears. In its absence, lots of other concerns will predominate, and many of the supporters the Republicans need will stay home. In 2010, the voters voted Republican not out of a love for the Republicans but out of a fear for the Democrats. Eliminate or reduce the fear, and the Republican vote will diminish. I am confident that Mitch McConnell and John Boehner found the party discipline of the Democrats in the Senate and House delightful.
Dec '10
Re: Only the Supreme Court Can Save the Democrats
Aaron Miller
Republicans have more to win or lose from an early decision. They will be able to claim any judicial victory against Obamacare, regardless of whether they deserve the credit or not. If the 2012 elections come around and no headway has been made against Obamacare or, worse, any part of Obamacare has been upheld by SCOTUS, Republicans will suffer from the impatience of voters expecting repeal. · Feb 3 at 11:34am
So far, a vote has been held in both houses. In the lower House, Obamacare was repealed. In the upper house, it failed, but Democrat Senators are now on record as supporting a bill just after it was declared unconstitutional by a federal court.
If they do this again, and I'm willing to bet both houses will, Republicans will be seen as having done a great deal to prevent obvious damage to the health care system. If the House follows through on defunding implementation, even better.
Further, bubbling out of my possibly faulty memory is John Yoo in a recent podcast, saying these votes will provide cover for courts to strike the law down.
May '10
Re: Only the Supreme Court Can Save the Democrats
I don't think voters will give Republicans an A for effort. I doubt merely proposing repeal without the strength to enact it will win the GOP many votes.
Agreed. I see your point now about an early decision.
Regarding short attention spans, it kills me that the way in which Obamacare was passed and subsequent abuses of process will likely be forgotten by many voters. How relevant will those abuses be in the 2012 campaigns?
Dec '10
Re: Only the Supreme Court Can Save the Democrats
Fear is the most powerful emotion -- more powerful even than love.
Here's a thought exercise that proves the point: suppose a man calls you and tells you he can guarantee your child a prosperous and happy life by ensuring his or her admission to a top university... and that this guarantee will only cost you $250,000. Very few Americans would agree to that proposition unhesitatingly.
But suppose a man calls and says he's holding your child for $250,000 ransom. How many people would refuse outright? "I'll get the money somehow": that's fear's power.
Re: Only the Supreme Court Can Save the Democrats
Aaron Miller: I don't think voters will give Republicans an A for effort. I doubt merely proposing repeal without the strength to enact it will win the GOP many votes.
Agreed. I see your point now about an early decision.
Regarding short attention spans, it kills me that the way in which Obamacare was passed and subsequent abuses of process will likely be forgotten by many voters. How relevant will those abuses be in the 2012 campaigns? · Feb 3 at 2:44pm
Not so terribly relevant, I fear. Some will remember and be angry. Most will be thinking about something else. Let's hope that the something else is Obamacare.
Jan '11
Re: Only the Supreme Court Can Save the Democrats
Unfortunately we are already on the wrong track in Congress. We have started tinkering about the edges of the bill, eliminating the more egregious paperwork requirements for business.
What was the point of that? It is not in the interests of conservatives to lessen the irritation quotient of one segment of our electoral coalition. As Erick Erickson correctly pointed out, all that does is let steam out of the boiler..
It also teaches some smart folks that with the right words and a little baksheesh, they can escape the more onerous requirements of Obamacare, as well as get a leg up on their competitors, the dopes who don't have the right connections.
In other words, we are reinforcing what Ayn Rand called "The Aristocracy of Pull" or what is also known as divide-and-conquer, bureaucrat-style.
No umbrellas for the few in the fecal storm known as ObamaCare. Instead, let's urge the House to begin investigations into the granting of the now 700-plus waivers, with an eye on putting HHS-apparachiks in orange jumpsuits and Sebelius in the poorhouse.
Or we can continue to bring our cute little knife to the gunfight.