"One Term Barack?" Larry Sabato says "Not So Fast...."
Tongue firmly in cheek, Larry Sabato declares the Obama presidency over:
The wreckage of the Democratic Party is strewn just about everywhere. President Obama’s carefully constructed 2008 Electoral College breakthrough is now just broken, a long-ago memory of what might have been a lasting shift in partisan alignment.
We have just entered the 2012 presidential election cycle, and the news is grim for the incumbent. While at least one recent poll gives Obama the lead against Sarah Palin, he is trailing in hypothetical match-ups against former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Even worse, only 38% in another recent poll said they believed Obama “deserves re-election"...
There’s only one logical conclusion to be drawn: President Barack Obama is down for the count, will have an early lame duck presidency, and will be out of the White House in two years.
He's kidding, of course. It's bait for a credulous media to develop a "One Term Barack" meme, despite the remarkable comeback of Bill Clinton, who faced a similar drubbing:
Nonetheless, we are quite confident in our assertions. President Clinton’s easy reelection to a second term in 1996 should imply nothing about 2012. The pendulum of American politics cannot swing so quickly in just two years, except maybe in 1994-1996.
Despite his upset victory over heavily favored Hillary Clinton in the ’08 Democratic contest and his easy win over a much more seasoned John McCain in November two years ago, Barack Obama lacks the political skills necessary to adjust to the new realities of divided government. Unlike Bill Clinton, Obama is an inflexible liberal who couldn’t find the center with both hands, even if his career depended on it. And there is no chance at all the new Republican leadership in Congress could over-reach and repeat the errors of Newt Gingrich and his allies. The GOP legislative caucus contains no core of rigid ideologues that might go too far and create an opening for Obama.
Historically, incumbent presidents who have sought another term have won them by a two-to-one margin. Those aren’t impressive odds. How many of us would bet on a horse with minimal chances like that? Since 1900 only one incumbent president whose party captured the White House from the other party four years earlier (Jimmy Carter) has been beaten. The other incumbent losers—Taft, Hoover, Ford, and the senior Bush—were from a party that had held the White House for two or more consecutive terms. But the key is that Carter and Obama are practically twins; both won the Nobel Peace Prize. Enough said. Moreover, the present moment is unprecedentedly perilous for an incumbent president. There’s really no comparison in the existence of the American Republic, save for about a dozen crises like the Civil War, economic panics, the Great Depression, world wars, and 9/11.
Democrats may also place false hope in the fact that the next presidential election will have a turnout twenty full percentage points higher than we saw in the midterm—probably about 40 million more people than voted on Nov. 2. No doubt these “midterm-missing” voters are disproportionately 18-34 years old and members of minority groups, segments of the population that backed President Obama by margins ranging from 62% to 95% in 2008. Obama can’t seem to get them to cast a ballot except when he’s on the ballot. Well, yes, he’ll be on the ballot in 2012, but they’re likely disillusioned with him, too.
It's an odd little post, but really worth reading. Sabato's analysis is always bracing, and mostly very well grounded in history and political savvy. And since I'm guilty of musing, these past few days, about the doomed nature of Barack Obama's political future, it's a useful splash of cold water.
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Jun '10
Re: "One Term Barack?" Larry Sabato says "Not So Fast...."
We're about to find out if Mr. Obama is Caligula or merely a Nero. I fear the electoral rebuke means nothing to him. I'm hoping rational Democrats will start crossing the aisle in an attempt to salvage the shattered remnants of their party. A bi-partisan effort, united in opposition against the executive branch, might be able to arrest the worst of the damage. Here's hoping.
Sep '10
Re: "One Term Barack?" Larry Sabato says "Not So Fast...."
I can't see Obama winning in 2012 unless the GOP nominates the wrong candidate, and even then it will be close. Wrong candidates would be Sara Palin or Mike Huckabee...but both would do better than Mc Cain did no matter what.
Obama's election was a perfect storm. He was a novelty...ok we've had our first "black" President. He fooled a lot of people as a relative moderate who respected both sides of the debate. He can't pivot that fast to get those independents back. He energized millions of young voters... I find it incomprehensible he can generate the same kind of enthusiam again.
Today's climate is quite different than 1994, the House can't "overreach" far enough, and Obama is no Bill Clinton either.
Political pundits like Sabato can talk about the "odds", but it is a poor substitute for a here and now on the ground assesment. Every election is different. Just like a stock pick, the past history of a given company shouldn't be much of plus factor if it's fundamentals are lacking.
May '10
Re: "One Term Barack?" Larry Sabato says "Not So Fast...."
Anyone who tells you what 2012 will bring should be required to present a sealed envelope, postmarked November 2008 and that was kept in a vault at Price-Waterhouse Coopers and that accurately foretold a +61 GOP house pickup... then we talk...
Aug '10
Re: "One Term Barack?" Larry Sabato says "Not So Fast...."
Make no mistake, the GOP cannot pick a name out of a hat and expect to beat Obama in 2012, no matter how bad his polls tank. This country is not made up exclusively of Tea Partiers - there are still a lot of lefties and useful idiots out there. The Repubs need to pick a strong candidate or they will lose.
Hence my topic in the new member section. Check it out!
Jul '10
Re: "One Term Barack?" Larry Sabato says "Not So Fast...."
That's an amusing article by Sabato and should serve as a check on the blind optimism the last election engendered. That said, I think Obama's bright charisma -- the only thing he had going for him last time other than no vetting from the media gatekeepers -- guttered out a long time ago. He is a known quantity now and people don't like what they know. They are tired of this empty celebrity, as tired as they were of that tiresome scold Jimmy Carter.
May '10
Re: "One Term Barack?" Larry Sabato says "Not So Fast...."
Franco: I can't see Obama winning in 2012 unless the GOP nominates the wrong candidate...
...I find it incomprehensible he can generate the same kind of enthusiam again.
You're right. He can't generate the enthusiasm. But he can win reelection... particularly if our last primary situation is repeated, meaning that the conservative/small government vote is split between candidates.
And presidencies are always shaped by unforeseen events. There are some surprises left which are beyond the control of Obama and the political parties. Perhaps I'm mistaken, but I believe a major crisis tends to favor the incumbent president during an election.
Oct '10
Re: "One Term Barack?" Larry Sabato says "Not So Fast...."
"but I believe a major crisis tends to favor the incumbent president during an election"
True, but barring a serious foreign crisis in summer or early fall 2012 (i.e. an October surprise), I don't see Obama being re-elected. One major reason is his self-righteous rigidity and arrogance. However, there is also the combination of 1970s style Democratic spending, combined with an even looser monetary 'easing.' The predictable likely result is a repeat of the stagflation of the 1970s.
Add to that the weak and therefore provocative foreign policy, and you have a formula for an even worse defeat than Carter received.
Jul '10
Re: "One Term Barack?" Larry Sabato says "Not So Fast...."
When it comes to the '12 elections Everyone dismisses the Clintons. They are a force to be reckoned with.
Obama has already stated that he would rather be a successful one term President than an unsuccessful two term President. I wouldn't put it past the Clintons to have nudged him in this direction (maybe even written those lines).
Hillary wants history (first female) and '16 is too far away.
Obama may have visions of Vince Foster dancing in his head....
Nov '10
Re: "One Term Barack?" Larry Sabato says "Not So Fast...."
Everything points to an inevitable reelection of President Obama.
FIRST, if we go back to the past century 3 Presidents lost the mid term election by more than 50 seats in Congress:
Roosevelt in 1938 with -72 in the House and -7 in the Senate
Truman in1946 with -54 in the House and -12 in the Senate
Clinton in 1994 with -54 in the House and -8 in the Senate
All 3 were reelected 2 years later.
SECOND, voters didn’t send a message to president Obama alone.
Actually Republicans are as unpopular as Democrats.
According toelection exit polls, voters viewed the parties equally unfavorably (Dems: 43% fav/52% unfav; GOP: 41% fav/53% unfav). But nearly a quarter (23%) of voters unfavorable toward Republicans still voted for them for Congress.
The message was to wasTO WORK TOGETHER and it was intended to both Obama and Republicans.
If Republicans instead start fighting to repeal mandatory maternity coverage, mandatory breast cancer coverage, and other popular proposals in the healthcare reform , expect voters reaction to change as it was the case in 1994-1995.
Definily Preident Obama is not a One term President.
Nov '10
Re: "One Term Barack?" Larry Sabato says "Not So Fast...."
Regarding one term president, J.K.Polk who served only one term (1845-1849) is now recognized, not only as the strongest president between Jackson and Lincoln, but also one of 10 all times best presidents of the United States.
He set 4 objectives and reached them all
and dId not run for reelection as he promised from the beginning.
So Obama would be rather a Polk one term president, if ever, than one term President Carter.
He actually did, in less than 2 years, what no other president achieved in a full term:
- HEALTHCARE REFORM many presidents tried unsuccessfully
- WALL STREET REFORM which was necessary and the whole world agrees with.
- THE UNITED STATES ARE DEFINITELY THE COUNTRY WHICH BEST RESISTED TO THIS WORLD CRISIS, the worst since the big depression.
By the way all of these reforms were announced and accepted by voters before his election.
Nov '10
Re: "One Term Barack?" Larry Sabato says "Not So Fast...."
With all my big respect to Professor Sabato, he is dead wrong.
Though he never predicted a win in the Senate race for the Republicans in the last mid term election , he never excluded it and even in his last prediction after giving them + 9 seats, suggested a possible surprise, pointing to a possible win for them in West Virginia.
Actually it was obvious GOP couldn’t win the Senate as the results confirmed: 53 to to 47. This was n’ t even a close race!
Wat happened?
Actually, more voters blame Wall Street or Bush than Obama for the country's current economic problems. A plurality (35%) blame Wall Street, with almost as many (30%) blaming Bush. Fewer (23%) blame Obama.
Now, what will happen next?
Don’t expect Republicans to work with Obama as voters obviously wish . Most probably they rather will work for gridlock and the result will be the same as in 1994-1995.Andthe people will reverse their vote.
If against all predictions they will compromise, the success will be for President Obama who already has given sign he is open to compromise
President Obama is a two-term President .