One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Yesterday Claire expressed what she called "post-election punditry hesitation" because though the midterm results marked historic victories for Republicans, a number of symbolic races were lost. In the ensuing discussion, members (especially those who live in the sinking ship of California) also expressed what seems like mild disappointment. Perhaps one explanation for the sentiments of disappointment is the high level of expectation with which many of us went into election day. Whilst reviewing the Ricochet midterm pool in order to determine who won, we discovered that members were by and large expecting much bigger results.
At the time of this posting, Real Clear Politics lists that Republicans have a net gain of +61 in the House, +6 in the Senate, and +7 in the governors' races. Contrast this with 59 entries in the Ricochet midterm pool:
- House: +61 (actual)
- Minimum prediction: +52
- Maximum prediction: +124
- Median: +67
- Senate: +6 (actual)
- Minimum: +6
- Maximum: +12
- Median: +9
- Governors: +7 (actual)
- Minimum: +5
- Maximum: +15
- Median: +9
Ricochetians went into the election expecting a tsunami, and so were understandably a bit let down when the results only ended up amounting to a really big wave.
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Jul '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Songwriter
Your thoughts? Other Californians feel free to jump in. I'd really like to know. · Nov 4 at 12:20pm
Songwriter, perception counts for a lot. The quality of life in most parts of California is so wonderful that people just do not perceive impending doom. It's clean, it's mostly civil, the climate and landscape are gorgeous.
I lived in Manhattan during its low point. It was filthy, the streets looked like a moonscape, crime was through the roof - it was exactly what you see in Taxi Driver. We knew we were on the brink. So we did the unthinkable: we voted for Rudy Giuliani.
But in California, so far, you just do not see the decline. Within a 20-minute drive from my home, there are towering redwood forests, hundreds of miles of walking trails, stunning ocean vistas. 90% of the time, the weather is absolutely perfect.
Yeah, it bums me out that Jerry Brown is going to be our Governor. But when I'm lounging on a deck, watching the whitecaps on Tomales Bay as I devour fresh, meaty local oysters....it's kinda hard to tap into my political angst.
Oct '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Diane Ellis, Ed.
Ricochetians went into the election expecting a tsunami, and so were understandably a bit let down when the results only ended up amounting to a really big wave. ·
I respectfully disagree with you here, Diane. At least during the last month or so that I have been a member (dare I call myself a "ricochetian"?...I think I'm getting a little tingle up my leg...) my perception has been that the expectations here have been fairly evenly distributed across the spectrum. In fact, I would dare say, that the majority had fairly realistic expectations consistant with the actual outcome. The surprises/disappointments were, I think, in California, which is clearly an outlier.
Jul '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Ottoman Umpire: To your point, our level of disappointment seems largely a function of location. We Californians are pretty disappointed.
Oh, and before some of my fellow members start wishing for California to fall into the ocean (a sentiment first expressed to me and my wife by an obtuse relative in Iowa), let me note a few things: · Nov 4 at 11:08am
Your wife and I should go bowling.
Oct '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Kenneth
Songwriter
Your thoughts? Other Californians feel free to jump in. I'd really like to know. · Nov 4 at 12:20pm
But in California, so far, you just do not see the decline. Within a 20-minute drive from my home, there are towering redwood forests, hundreds of miles of walking trails, stunning ocean vistas. 90% of the time, the weather is absolutely perfect.
. · Nov 4 at 12:48pm
I think you are right, Kenneth. Having grown up in the East Bay in the 50's and 60's, and living in other regions of the Bay Area, including San Rafael (!st and D Streets) and Windsor, it is easy to see how the overwhelming attributes of the landscape could lull one into complacency. But the rottenness is from within. I would defer to VDH on this, but I can imagine that your senitments would have been shared by many in ancient Rome.
Jul '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
I blame Peter Robinson and Professor Rahe.
Peter was running around singing "Oh What a Beautiful Morning" in his Conan the Barbarian loincloth, while the Professor was gnawing on raw beef as he chanted, "Bloodbath! Bloodbath!".
I admired their enthusiasm, but I was under no delusions.
A tsunami is a big wave. But political ignorance and entitlements are mighty rocks - they don't give way all at once. They erode, incrementally, over time.
Jul '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Jul '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Good Berean
Kenneth
Songwriter
I think you are right, Kenneth. Having grown up in the East Bay in the 50's and 60's, and living in other regions of the Bay Area, including San Rafael (!st and D Streets) and Windsor, it is easy to see how the overwhelming attributes of the landscape could lull one into complacency. But the rottenness is from within. I would defer to VDH on this, but I can imagine that your senitments would have been shared by many in ancient Rome. · Nov 4 at 1:01pm
Small world. I live at 2nd and A.
But, really, what am I gonna do? I've lived in Toronto, New York, St Louis, Philadelphia, Hawaii, Italy. Life here is the best of 'em.
So now I'm supposed to move where? Texas? Indiana?
Puleez.
Better to stick it out and fight the good fight. When things get bad enough, the parasites will move on to suck the blood out of some other body politic.
Oct '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Kenneth: I blame Peter Robinson and Professor Rahe.
Peter was running around singing "Oh What a Beautiful Morning" in his Conan the Barbarian loincloth, while the Professor was gnawing on raw beef as he chanted, "Bloodbath! Bloodbath!".
I admired their enthusiasm, but I was under no delusions.
A tsunami is a big wave. But political ignorance and entitlements are mighty rocks - they don't give way all at once. They erode, incrementally, over time. · Nov 4 at 1:12pm
The good professors as barbarians at the gates?
May '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Manage expectations realistically and you can be happy. Outside of Harry Reid, of course.
When I heard the unbelievable stuff about 70 to 100 seats and capturing the Senate, etc., I just remembered how many on the Right had pretended that the polls were all wrong in 2006, after which we were skunked.
Tuesday was a great day, and slightly exceeded my expectations.
May '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
It was actually not a tsunami, it was between a thumpin' and a stampede, with a lingering possibility of a massacre:
http://pajamasmedia.com/zombie/2010/10/20/republican-victory-metaphors-your-official-election-day-guide/
Jun '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Aaron Miller
Is it like any other state in which the flaming liberals are mainly concentrated in the big cities? Or is the divide more regional? Someone once told me northern California is strong conservative.
This map illustrates it well. SF, LA, and most of the coastal counties are liberal, while Orange County, San Diego (a big Navy town), and all the inland and agricultural counties are conservative. And yes, with the exception of Humboldt County on the coast (famous refuge of hippie stoner dropouts), the rural parts of NorCal are very conservative. I remember driving up I5 during the 2004 election and you would have thought you were in a red state with Bush/Cheney signs in every yard.
May '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
How we "flyover types" see Cullyfoahniah:
$19 billion in the hole and counting...IOUs instead of tax refunds...plummeting schools for skyrocketing salaries and pensions...a flood of illegals that you complain about while you hire them for cash from Home Depot and give gov't freebies to.
...and we "bitter clingers" will get stuck with the tab. And yes, we know how you talk about us...remember, Obama said that little famous slam at a fundraiser in your state. Why did he think that would be "understood" there?
Clean up your mess in your pretty little state. WE won't be funding it...and the Republican House will be telling Governor Moonbeam to go pound sand.
We love you...but you are gonna get some tough love from your fellow Americans until you show some fiscal responsibility.
Aug '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Kenneth
But, really, what am I gonna do? I've lived in Toronto, New York, St Louis, Philadelphia, Hawaii, Italy. Life here is the best of 'em.
So now I'm supposed to move where? Texas? Indiana?
Puleez.
Better to stick it out and fight the good fight. When things get bad enough, the parasites will move on to suck the blood out of some other body politic. · Nov 4 at 1:18pm
Agreed, I spent 12 years hiding from the heat in Texas-Adjacent Austin, stuck indoors from St. Patricks Day until Halloween. Life chased me back to San Pedro- my lovely ghetto by the sea.
Some words of encouragement from the great A.J. Leibling regarding sticking it out:
Being sensible people, they never went far inland. All, or almost all, the interior of North America was therefore filled in from the North Atlantic Coast, by the weakest element in that incompletely civilized population- those who would move away from salt water.
From Nothing But a Little Pissant in The Earl of Louisiana.
If this place slides into the sea, I will be the first to go because this is my home.
Jun '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
I'm actually starting to see a silver lining in the reelection of Gov. Moonbeam. Hear me out.
I was never a fan of Meg. The ad comparing her to the Governator was effective because it was so plausible, she's another RINO squish with no political experience and had she actually taken on the unions who run the state they would have destroyed her as they did to Arnold in the special election of 2005. More likely she would have gone along to get along while planning her Presidental campaign and the GOP would continue to share the blame for our state's woes.
Then I read this from Jerry yesterday: "The voters last night turned down a mere $18-a-year (car) tax by about 60 percent, so I would say that the electorate is in no mood to add to their burdens."
I think Jerry may bite the hand that fed him and try to extract meaningful concessions from the unions that elected him. If he suceeds, it's good for CA. If he fails, at least the Dems will own that failure and create an opening for a Chris Christie type GOP candidate in 2014.
Jul '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Keith Preston: ...and we "bitter clingers" will get stuck with the tab. And yes, we know how you talk about us...remember, Obama said that little famous slam at a fundraiser in your state. Why did he think that would be "understood" there?
Clean up your mess in your pretty little state. We love you...but you are gonna get some tough love from your fellow Americans until you show some fiscal responsibility. · Nov 4 at 2:10pm
Are you kidding me? Illinois is officially in the worst fiscal condition of all 50 states and you're lecturing us?
And by the way, we don't talk about "flyover" states out here. We're either respectful conservatives or we just don't care.
Just so you know, I used to live in St. Louis, so I know Alton, Illinois quite well. No wonder you're grumpy
Edited on Nov 4, 2010 at 2:52pmMay '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Keith Preston: How we "flyover types" see Cullyfoahniah:
...and we "bitter clingers" will get stuck with the tab. And yes, we know how you talk about us...remember, Obama said that little famous slam at a fundraiser in your state. Why did he think that would be "understood" there?
Nov 4 at 2:10pm
Well, that's kind of my point. As someone who comes from Iowa and Minnesota, I think I know a chip on a shoulder when I see it.
I don't know of more than a handful of people -- despite living here for 24 years -- who refer to the non-coastal states as "Flyover Country." Yet you hear something from Obama, the NYT, the guy who wrote "What's the Matter with Kansas?" and a few Hollywood types and suddenly it's "we know how you (all 40 million Californians?!) talk about us."
That's a pretty broad brush you're painting us with, Mr. Preston.
Edited on Nov 4, 2010 at 3:16pmMay '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
What disappoints me most about the California situation is that we did this to ourselves. Clearly the people of this state just don't understand what is happening, and about to happen, so I have little hope for the political will to address the crisis well. It's gotta get a lot worse first, which is not a fun prospect.
With kids in the schools and state university system I worry about Brown's ties to the education unions and bureaucracy. My son's school (the High School featured in "Waiting for Superman") has been engaged in a running battle with the education establishment (it's non-union) so we are very concerned.
As Kenneth mentioned there are plenty of conservatives and right-leaning moderates in CA but they, and the Republican party, lack effective organization and unity. The Dems are very powerful and not afraid to wield that power. The various Asian communities can be quite "conservative" in a general way, but politically inactive.
Y'know...there's no guarantee that when the s*** hits the fan that CA will turn to the Republicans. All sorts of crazy scenarios are possible out here.
May '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Guess that's why I'm not disappointed, I just plugged in real high numbers for fun. Plus I live in Pennsylvania.
May '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Ottoman - I have kids and grandkids in California (LA area) and I worry about them. They are where they have to be for my son to do the work he does - but I wonder what kind of future they can build in the state.
Your points are well made. And no kidding - what can be done about the sorry state of the state? Those of us that don't live there hear the worst. And we fear the likelihood of having to bail California out.
Your thoughts? Other Californians feel free to jump in. I'd really like to know. · Nov 4 at 12:20pm
I won't argue your or Keith Preston's points about the financial mess we're in. The $500,000,000,000 (yes, half trillion) unfunded pension fund obligation is hard to get out of one's head. It's such a mess that I'm kind of glad Jerry Brown is getting it plopped in his lap.
The best analysis I've seen so far is from Reason.
May '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
And another nice report at Right Network from Robin of Berkeley.
Not only do we have a genuine uber-liberal as our Governor-elect, but he's a retread. And not only a two-term governor, but the son of a two-tem governor, and Jerry has never left CA politics.
Imagine if, in 2012, disappointed with Barack Obama, the United States re-elected Jimmy Carter. That's how it feels.
We ought to provide a stunning counter-example to the rest of the nation, along with New York. Governors fighting to enact tough and painful reforms and cuts can warn their constituents, "look at California".