One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Yesterday Claire expressed what she called "post-election punditry hesitation" because though the midterm results marked historic victories for Republicans, a number of symbolic races were lost. In the ensuing discussion, members (especially those who live in the sinking ship of California) also expressed what seems like mild disappointment. Perhaps one explanation for the sentiments of disappointment is the high level of expectation with which many of us went into election day. Whilst reviewing the Ricochet midterm pool in order to determine who won, we discovered that members were by and large expecting much bigger results.
At the time of this posting, Real Clear Politics lists that Republicans have a net gain of +61 in the House, +6 in the Senate, and +7 in the governors' races. Contrast this with 59 entries in the Ricochet midterm pool:
- House: +61 (actual)
- Minimum prediction: +52
- Maximum prediction: +124
- Median: +67
- Senate: +6 (actual)
- Minimum: +6
- Maximum: +12
- Median: +9
- Governors: +7 (actual)
- Minimum: +5
- Maximum: +15
- Median: +9
Ricochetians went into the election expecting a tsunami, and so were understandably a bit let down when the results only ended up amounting to a really big wave.
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Comments :
Jul '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Don't your swanky new interns know how to calculate averages?
Medians are for wonks.
Jul '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
People were disappointed? Why? Over half this country voted the current crap in....I would say what we got Tuesday, just a scant 2 years from a Big Wave rolling out, was pretty darn good. When half the country is loserville and the other half providerville...buffers will get in the waves way. But it still rolled back in!
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Very cool analysis Diane--insightful.
May '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
To your point, our level of disappointment seems largely a function of location. We Californians are pretty disappointed.
Oh, and before some of my fellow members start wishing for California to fall into the ocean (a sentiment first expressed to me and my wife by an obtuse relative in Iowa), let me note a few things:
Sep '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
I was a bit optimistic, predicting 72 and 8 senate seats and I really thought Reid was going down. That is my only big disappointment.
I was optimistic because I thought there was more energy on the GOP side than was being reported. I also knew the Democrats have a lot of tricks up their sleeve mitigating a bigger prediction. There sure was a lot of energy for the GOP but there was a solid GOTV from desperate Democrats holding back the wave somewhat.
This election has been long anticipated and so naturally there will be a let down. Most of us know by now a GOP majority doesn't neccesarily translate into optimal results.
It is now going to get considerably trickier for Republicans who will immediately be placed in the position of "solving" all our problems overnight, while being blamed every time they don't include Democrat "compromise" measures.
Republicans will have to hold fast and be very good at parrying these thrusts from the Democrats and their media allies.
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Diane's a numbers cruncher. I dig that! Thanks for doing this.
Jul '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
One thing to keep in mind, there are still 9 House races outstanding per RCP. I figured it'd be fewer than that. The final number will probably be a little higher.
Jul '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
As I noted elsewhere, there is also the Whole vs. Actual when it comes to the Senate.
There are 100 seats in the senate. a gain of 6 is 6%.
But, unlike the house, only 1/3 of the senate were up for a vote. 37 seats. 18 Republican seats and 19 Democrat seats.
The outcome was 24 Republican Wins, and 13 Democrat wins. 2 to 1, a 33% increase!
So when you view Tuesday as Tuesday, it is a BIG gain in the Senate, but when you view Tuesday vs. the Whole Senate, it doesn't look as big.
Jul '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Ottoman, my only disappointment was the defeat of Prop 23. I was hoping for at least that one little bit of sanity. Otherwise, no surprises.
Jun '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Sometimes It Takes Two Flushes - 2012
(Bumper sticker seen on NewRepublic.com)
Sep '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Something is very wrong in California. Jerry Brown over Meg Whitman? The lesson here may well be that it doesn't matter how moderate and "electable" the Republican is.
Republicans should nominate a strong principled conservative next time and see what happens. Obviously chasing Democrats down corridors that lead to serfdom (just a bit less of it) doesn't seem to be resonating, and they don't have much more to lose.
In the NBA over the years the guards started getting taller and taller. 6'0 was the size of many point guards and 6'3 or 6'4' was about right for the shooting guards. Height inflation came with taller men having better ball-handling skills and able to dominate players slightly shorter. By this time every team had a point guard who was 6'3 and a shooter who was 6'6. Enter 5'7' Spud Webb and another 5'7" guy the same year .Against 6 footers they would struggle but vs. these taller trees they shined They were able to compete because they were shorter and faster than the 6'0-6'3" guys who were dominated. A real conservative could win in California.
Feb '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
This is what I was afraid of while listening to all the breathless predictions before the election.
Our TRULY HISTORIC gains are being taken for granted and belittled.
We should have been more modest while pushing as hard as possible for as many seats as possible. Ever heard the phrase "under promise and over deliver?"
Too late now. What we CAN do now is to appreciate the gains we made, be realistic about the prospects of real change, and work even harder to continue the wave in 2012.
Feb '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Here's something that puts the Senate in a bit of perspective. As Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight points out, Democrats actually underperformed in the Senate. The reason we didn't take it is the obvious one that most people still seems to overlook: only 1/3 of the Senate is up for reelection! If the whole Senate were up for reelection, we could have picked up 15-20 seats there.
And as others have pointed out, the particular Senate slots up for reelection in 2012 look especially ripe for takeover by the Republicans.
Aug '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Pilgrim: Sometimes It Takes Two Flushes - 2012
(Bumper sticker seen on NewRepublic.com) · Nov 4 at 11:30am
CLASSIC!
Jul '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
I was actually very happy with the results. My expectations were exceeded. I predicted we'd pick up 45 seats in the House and 6 in the Senate. And while my district stupidly kept Dennis Kucinich in, we at least swept away all the Dems statewide in Ohio.
May '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Ottoman Umpire:
Oh, and before some of my fellow members start wishing for California to fall into the ocean...There are 4-5 times as many Republicans in California as there are in Iowa.
Is it like any other state in which the flaming liberals are mainly concentrated in the big cities? Or is the divide more regional? Someone once told me northern California is strong conservative.
In any case, I'm sorry, but it looks like time to abandon the ship. There aren't enough of you bailing water as your shipmates keep drilling new holes.
From what I hear, it's beautiful country, though.
I like it.
May '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Uh, I'll take a night like Tuesday any election day. That was the biggest thumping since 1948 people. Enjoy it, and lets look to build on it in 2012.
May '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Frozen Chosen
Pilgrim: Sometimes It Takes Two Flushes - 2012
(Bumper sticker seen on NewRepublic.com) · Nov 4 at 11:30am
CLASSIC! · Nov 4 at 11:57am
I like the entrepreneurial angle, because of you print it in the right colors, you can sell it to both sides!
Oct '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Does it say anything that the actual number of pickup seats in all 3 categories is right around 1/2 of the maximum we could have picked up?
Aug '10
Re: One Explanation For the Midterm Disappointment
Ottoman Umpire:
Ottoman - I have kids and grandkids in California (LA area) and I worry about them. They are where they have to be for my son to do the work he does - but I wonder what kind of future they can build in the state.
Your points are well made. And no kidding - what can be done about the sorry state of the state? Those of us that don't live there hear the worst. And we fear the likelihood of having to bail California out.
Your thoughts? Other Californians feel free to jump in. I'd really like to know.