On Predictions and Deadlines: Why Israel Never Bombs Iran
Yesterday Peter Robinson pointed to an article in the New York Times Magazine on that putative airstrike on Iran that never quite seems to happen. Remember that American political commentators predicted that President George W. Bush would launch a strike on Iran before he left office. The two most prominent, John and Norman Podhoretz, issued these pronouncements in 2006 and 2008, respectively, but speculation was widespread.
The article reports:
At that point Barak leaned forward and said with the utmost solemnity: “And if a nuclear Iran covets and occupies some gulf state, who will liberate it? The bottom line is that we must deal with the problem now.”
He warned that no more than one year remains to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weaponry.
But Israeli leaders have often spoken of the "point of no return," by which Iran would possess the capability to produce nuclear weapons. In January 2005, they said 12 months; in December 2005, they said 2-4 years; in November 2006, they said less than 2 years; in January 2009, they said 14 months.
Predictions have also repeatedly been made that Israel was about to strike. John Bolton warned in August 2010 that Tel Aviv had just days before it would be too late, for instance, and Jeffrey Goldberg speculated in 2010 that the strike would come in April 2011.
Everybody assumes it's just a question of Israeli political will. There is something to that, since any operation would be extremely high-risk and we know that the Israelis value their servicemen's lives extremely highly; after all, they traded 1,027 Palestinian prisoners for a single IDF soldier.
But every sensible analysis of a putative strike comes down to flight path, logistics, and the probability of mission success. Overflight rights are tricky (and actually do matter in the real world), the logistics are near impossible (with Israel's lack of aerial refueling capability), and the probability of mission success is extremely low (given Iran's air defenses and the dispersed nature of its nuclear program).
In the end, this may be a question of how, not when.
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Re: On Predictions and Deadlines: Why Israel Never Bombs Iran
Tristan–do you suppose that the stuxnet attack and the killing of individual Iranian nuclear scientists have been a workaround? They're obviously not as effective as a successful airstrike to nuclear facilities would be, but a) they don't require as many resources, and b) they allow for plausible deniability.
Jan '11
Re: On Predictions and Deadlines: Why Israel Never Bombs Iran
Yup! Covert action has been extremely effective by all accounts. We've also had some success with interdiction and sanctions.
Dec '10
Re: On Predictions and Deadlines: Why Israel Never Bombs Iran
It's time I told you. The Iran situation is nothing like the Iraq situation 30 years ago.
The question isn't whether Israel will bomb Iran, the question is whether a combined stike force will destroy Iran completely, killing Ahmadinejad and The Supreme Leader. The people of Iran are more then ready to rid themselves of these psychotic dictators. If we just stop worrying about it and do it we will be successful.
The results in Egypt are obvious. Egypt has a very poor uneducated population. They have been a pawn of the Muslim Brotherhood all along. They are rapidly becoming another Iran and Obama is completely responsible for this.
On the other hand, Iran's population is educated and naturally middle class. They see the emergent free markets in India and China and want to follow suit. They are easily capable of doing this. If we blast the regime out of the way, they will run through the void and embrace democratic institutions on the other side to join the free market system.
It isn't about Israel at all. It is about the fact that Barack Obama doesn't have a spine!!!
Jan '11
Re: On Predictions and Deadlines: Why Israel Never Bombs Iran
James, thanks for the comment -- but won't the Iranian people rally around the flag if we attack their country? From what I've read, they're pretty proud of the nuclear program.
Apr '11
Re: On Predictions and Deadlines: Why Israel Never Bombs Iran
I doubt a direct attack on the Iranians will convince the masses to join with us. A joint attack by the US and Israel would be terrible, for us. We would burn up any residual good will we have in the area and with other nations like Russia and China.
Also,m if the attack fails to fully eliminate the program then we would be in an even worse position. Think about it. The number of Islamic governments in the middle east has risen. Such an attack by US and Israel would only fuel radicals in Egypt and Lybia and possibly in Saudi Arabia and Jordan. I think we can also guarantee that an attack on Iran will result in the Iranian puppets of Hezbola and Hamass attacking Israel. Also the Shites in Iraq, especially those under Iranian influence, would use this as an excuse to create problems in Iraq for our allies there and maybe break the government or force it to move away form us.
I just don't see an attack working, if we are involved. Israel has to do it on its own or it won't be done at all. We can not help directly.
Jan '11
Re: On Predictions and Deadlines: Why Israel Never Bombs Iran
Good points, Valiuth -- however, I think you're overlooking a key set of actors: the Gulf Arabs. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the rest of the GCC have purchased hundreds of billions of dollars in US military hardware over the years; their military forces rely on US assistance (training, advisors, etc.); and they routinely claim to be even more terrified of a nuclear Iran than we are.
Dec '11
Re: On Predictions and Deadlines: Why Israel Never Bombs Iran
Tristan, alas my iPad will not let me quote but to some of your last comments may I suggest... As early as last year Israel added it's eighth tanker to it fleet of what would be analogous to our KC-135 demonstrating force projection is a reality. Trust me as someone who has spent much time at the "Prince's Airbase"' there is nothing the Saudis fear more than a nuclear Iran. In fact I am given to understand they have as much as said, though not in so many words, they won't try to stop Israel if they want overflight. Now, I do agree with you that Jordan could be problematic, however, I don't believe it's beyond the realm of possibility. Additionally, Iran's Soviet era IADS( integrated air defense systems) would pose little problems for F-16s firing anti-radiation missiles. Don't forget also that shooting at a nuclear site isn't exactly like trying to take out an SA-6...the nuclear site isn't exactly all that mobile. Air,land,and sea launched cruise missiles can be very effective depending on the range. Logistics and probability of success are not the issue. In the end it boils down to how willing everyone is to unleash the genie.
Apr '11
Re: On Predictions and Deadlines: Why Israel Never Bombs Iran
Oh most certainly the Saudis do not want a nuclear Iran. The question is can they really openly help Israel to attack Iran. I think not. At best they must act shocked and outraged at Israels attack for the sake of pacifying their own rabid antisemetic elements. Bahrain is currently suppressing large numbers of Shites who live there and were earlier in 2011 protesting with Iranian backing and encouragement.
Perhaps if the Saudis attack Iran themselves that would be something, but I doubt they have the guts or skill. I can think of no way for this to happen with anything other than Israel going it alone, followed by the strong and insincere outrage of Saudi Arabia and the US. We will try to step in and make sure the whole thing doesn't devolve into a regional war, but the US can not be seen to throw the first punch and much less to do it in conjunction with Israel.
The Arab world is already filled with a conspiratorial mentality that fabricates all sorts of American Zionist plots. The worst thing we can do is give actual proof to partaking in such a plan.
May '10
Re: On Predictions and Deadlines: Why Israel Never Bombs Iran
What are the odds the Saudis would ask us to intervene if Iran seemed like they would attack Saudi Arabia for allowing Israel through Arab airspace? Iran's leaders are fanatics, but they're not stupid. They will know who help Israel.
And if the Saudis did ask us for protection, what are the odds we would give it to them? I can't imagine American politicians letting Saudi Arabia being invaded or bombed, regardless of what American voters might think about it.
Dec '10
Re: On Predictions and Deadlines: Why Israel Never Bombs Iran
For 10 straight months they went into the streets to be clubbed, gassed, and shot. Obama did nothing. Instead a gang of CIA trained mercenaries destabilized Libya with the help of a fantastic number of extremely expensive cruise missles. In both Libya and Egypt Obama has created problems not solved them.
Iran is a threat to both Turkey and Saudia Arabia the two most powerful countries in the region. It is a no-brainer to see the oppertunity with the Green's in the street. That of course is the problem. Obama has no brain and no spine. Instead of solving the one big problem, he's left it in place and created two more.
We need to pull Obama out of the White House like an impacted molar. I hope and pray that November 2012 will be soon enough!!
Oct '10
Re: On Predictions and Deadlines: Why Israel Never Bombs Iran
Tristan - where do you think Obama is on all this 'Israeli strike on Iran' business? Bit hard to imagine him lining up with Israel isn't it? Or is he thinking about votes in Florida too, only the ones in November not Tuesday?
Edited on January 31, 2012 at 8:11amJan '11
Re: On Predictions and Deadlines: Why Israel Never Bombs Iran
Political will is a big part, but I still don't see the logistics as realistic. Converted 707's help but even then aren't we pushing it to get 90 F-15's and F-16's over Iranian airspace?
As for Saudi overflight, why on earth would the royals let this become public knowledge before the fact? The Washington Times talked about this "green light" in 2009; it was repeated in 2010. Seems like wishful thinking to me.
Jan '11
Re: On Predictions and Deadlines: Why Israel Never Bombs Iran
This is partly why Arab leaders were so furious that we let Mubarak collapse.
Jan '11
Re: On Predictions and Deadlines: Why Israel Never Bombs Iran
Hi HVT! Hmmm. I think there's a lot of continuity with the Obama-Bush transition: we don't want Iran to go nuclear and we want an Iranian democracy. Towards those ends, we will squeeze them on sanctions (which can be extremely effective, especially this Iranian central bank business), interdict their weapons-related transfers, support dissident groups, and engage in covert action to delay or halt the nuclear program -- until we get a new government in Tehran. That's what it seems to me, anyway: wait until the 2013 election for Ahmadinejad to depart and give Khamenei time to pass away from natural causes, hoping something shakes lose.
An Israeli preemptive strike -- high-risk as it is, given all the constraints laid out above -- would interfere with this strategy. So we would probably oppose it.
Dec '10
Re: On Predictions and Deadlines: Why Israel Never Bombs Iran
HVTs: Tristan - where do you think Obama is on all this 'Israeli strike on Iran' business? Bit hard to imagine him lining up with Israel isn't it? Or is he thinking about votes in Florida too, only the ones in November not Tuesday? · 2 hours ago
Edited 2 hours ago
You again fail to grasp what I am saying. It is not up to Israel to make a preemptive strike on Iran. The Israeli strike in Iraq 30 years ago was on a single vulnerable facility. There is no such target in Iran.
Only a U.S. led combined strike like Shock and Awe could work. This would require a real President like George Bush.
Shock and Awe was a complete success. Only the failure to start the surge immediately after the initial attack was a wrong policy.
I don't want to put the new generation down but 5,000 died in Iraq, 50,000 died in Viet Nam and 50,000,000 died in World War II. Either we suck it up a little and quit whining or there won't be a USA left to worry about hurting your feelings!!
May '10
Re: On Predictions and Deadlines: Why Israel Never Bombs Iran
If Israel goes it alone, perhaps they can dust off the playbook from the Doolittle Raid....
Apr '11
Re: On Predictions and Deadlines: Why Israel Never Bombs Iran
Cruise missiles are ineffective against hardened targets, which is why Uncle Sammy took delivery of a dozen 20,000-lb. bombs a couple weeks back.
Re: On Predictions and Deadlines: Why Israel Never Bombs Iran
Question--and I ask this as someone living much closer to Iran than most of the people on this thread. Why is Iran looming so much larger in American popular imagination--as a nuclear threat--than Pakistan?
Aug '11
Re: On Predictions and Deadlines: Why Israel Never Bombs Iran
(Hmmmm.... I think I live a little closer than you, closer to Tehran at least....)
Personally, I think its probably due to the fact that Pakistan doesn't have a version of Ahmadinejad running around making threats against its neighbors, nor does Pakistan seem to have aspirations for creating an Empire and projecting regional power. Then there is the oil....... And isn't Pakistan ostensibly an "Ally" of the US? (Damn if that isn't a gigantic irony)
(and BTW, I am incredibly ignorant of the whole issue in Pakistan so I may be speaking out of my proverbial)
Actually, Iran seems to relish in the uncertainty surrounding its nuclear intentions. So, to a certain extent we appear to playing into their hands.
Although I do get your point. Its of course extremely unsettling that Pakistan has nuclear weapons as well.
Aug '11
Re: On Predictions and Deadlines: Why Israel Never Bombs Iran
Oh, and one other thing. Israel isn't threatening to attack Pakistan, so there's a gigantic wild card that thrusts it way into the lead in the Iran Vs. Pakistan "who's the bigger threat" contest.