Oil Spill Notes From the Reality Crowd
An engineer friend of mine sent me a calculation of how much oil has spilled into the Gulf of Mexico. He says that if the Gulf were the size of the Superdome, the spilled oil would amount to two cans of beer worth--in other words, nothing, relatively speaking. So I sent this calculation to another engineer friend (engineers like me; I'm solidly built). He confirmed the figures and added that if you add up all the oil spilled by oil industries serving the US for the last 20 years (since Exxon Valdez) and compare it to the amount of oil the US has used, you end up with an oil industry safety record of 99.9997%.
So when you consider all the glorious wonders with which oil provides us from the gas in our cars to Megan Fox's lipstick (indeed, for all I know, most of what matters about Megan Fox), and then consider the relatively minor cost to our eco-system, despite the heart-wrenching TV pictures of the occasional gooey heron or whatever - and finally consider the disastrous toll to human life and the economy of the Obama administration's suspension of off-shore drilling permits in the Gulf, you are forced to conclude that the nation is being run by panicky and self-righteous idiots.
I mean, we knew that. But now it's mathematically proven!
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Re: Oil Spill Notes From the Reality Crowd
Just to say, that post is a thing of beauty. I knew Drew could sling words. But numbers?
Jun '10
Re: Oil Spill Notes From the Reality Crowd
After 86 days of Oval Office Hamlet
Obama did leftists and enviros cosset
For using BP as a political foil
Cuz they spilt two cups of oil
He looks a panicky, self-righteous idiot
Jun '10
Re: Oil Spill Notes From the Reality Crowd
I've also heard that Nature's oil leaks, the seepage that comes up through cracks in the rock, is much greater than the sum of all the man-made leaks and spills. The only difference is, nature's leaks are slower and more diffuse. And no cameras on hand.
Aug '10
Re: Oil Spill Notes From the Reality Crowd
I don't think that this argument is as compelling as you think.
By my back-of-the-envelope calculation with some web searching, I come up with the following: if my body were the size of the Superdome (and looking at pictures of myself on a recent vacation, it sure seems that large), the amount of Plutonium I would have to inhale to induce a fatal cancer is one can more than a six-pack. Scale matters, but when people think of the oil spill as poisoning the environment, it's reasonable think a little bit can hurt a lot.
More compelling to me, personally, is to reflect on just what sort of a world we would be living in if such an unfortunate accident simply could not happen. What regulation at all levels would be required, what stifling of any innovation would be mandatory, to ensure that this could never happen again.
I would not wish for another oil spill like this one. But I certainly would not wish for a world where it could not happen.
May '10
Re: Oil Spill Notes From the Reality Crowd
This was light, sweet crude. As soon as it rose to the surface of the simmering summertime Gulf, it was going to vaporize. Not really pleasant, of course. But not worth a fraction of the apocolyptic handwringing.
The importamt thing was to keep it out the the bays and estuaries. This didn't seem like a priority.
May '10
Re: Oil Spill Notes From the Reality Crowd
And: don't forget the OIL is behind more, more fundamental things: do you think the pop. of the planet would be 6Bln? Median age would jump from 50 to 75 in the 100 "oil-years"? Mega-cities could exist without trucked-in food? Oil is litterary the molecules that made US!
Check out www.gapminder.org/world
Bill Whittle's admirer / hanger-on from Denmark: driving taxi in the lonely night hours, listening to your podcast, and the other "ricochistas" is what keeps me sane in this "socialism-light" paradise without future...
May '10
Re: Oil Spill Notes From the Reality Crowd
NB.: US I mean us, humans - not the U.S. But it is not wring, the U.S. if made by and from OIL... ;-{o
Aug '10
Re: Oil Spill Notes From the Reality Crowd
One of the methods of lying through graphs is to show circles or icons whose linear dimension is scaled to the numbers in question, but of course the human eye sees the area and gets a distorted picture. Playing fast and loose with linear, area, and volume dimensions is one of major sins in the graphical display of numbers. Before I stopped bothering to read it at all, this was a constant feature of the 'friendly' graphics of USA Today.
At best it is incompetent, but it always looks sinister. It is a form of lying and I don't think we should embrace it as a rhetorical tool.
In a similar way, the volume of the oil spill compared to the volume of the Gulf is misleading at best. The oil spill was a surface effect, and most life in the water is near the surface. At one point, the spill affected over a tenth of the surface of the Gulf. This is not small.
I am sure the beer can in the Superdome comparison was well meant, but as a rhetorical tool to change hearts and minds, I think it probably does more harm than good.
May '10
Re: Oil Spill Notes From the Reality Crowd
Mark Woodworth: One of the methods of lying through graphs is to show circles or icons whose linear dimension is scaled to the numbers in question, but of course the human eye sees the area and gets a distorted picture. Playing fast and loose with linear, area, and volume dimensions is one of major sins in the graphical display of numbers......
In a similar way, the volume of the oil spill compared to the volume of the Gulf is misleading at best. The oil spill was a surface effect, and most life in the water is near the surface. At one point, the spill affected over a tenth of the surface of the Gulf. This is not small.
And, Mark, another insidious way of lying via comment is to present factoids such as the "10% surface" meme without including context. Volatiles floating on the surface may or may not be a problem, particularly to ocean life "near" the surface. The issues of speed of evaporation, specific impact on habitat, and exactly what species do exactly where (depth) mean everything. Light volatiles do not coat with black gunk.
Andrew's statement is closer to the contextual truth than is your criticism.
Aug '10
Re: Oil Spill Notes From the Reality Crowd
Mr. Oyen:
Of course there are qualitative aspects to the spill which may mitigate its effects, but I think it is fair to say that Mr. Klavan's argument was purely quantitative: that the quantity alone is so low that we can ignore it completely. He was claiming that these numbers mathematically prove that our opponents are idiots.
My point was that this argument will probably have little traction with the scientifically minded: the spill was not insignificant when seen as a surface effect, which is how it is thought of by most people.
Arguments like this one actually work against us: it convinces our opponents that we are innumerate, dazzled by numbers we don't really understand, and feeds their prejudice that scientists, and science itself, must be on their side.
Let's get science right on the Right. Let's focus on the resilience of the Gulf in cleaning itself up. Let's point out the nihilism at the core of the `precautionary principle'. Let's look beyond that which is seen to that which is not seen, and point out the even greater costs of the supposed `fixes'.