Of Mike Murphy, Rick Perry, and Rudy Giuliani
Give credit where it’s due to Mike Murphy.
For one thing, his comments on a Ricochet podcast over a week ago still seem to be roiling the waters here on the site. You may not agree with his conclusions on everything (scratch that – if you’re a paying member, you almost certainly don’t agree with his conclusions on everything), but that’s still a wonderful development on a site dedicated to spirited discussion.
Second, at least one of Mike’s predictions already looks headed towards validation. During the podcast, he forecasted that Rick Perry would throw his hat in the ring following the Ames Straw Poll in August. Now, further confirmation of that likelihood is coming from no less a figure than Iowa Governor Terry Branstad, per a report from CNN.
That tees up the scenario I wrote about earlier in the week: Perry jockeying for position with Michele Bachmann to become the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney. But what if Romney’s front-runner status among establishment Republicans turns out to be weaker than we thought? For the predicate for this (perhaps far-fetched) scenario, consider this from Politico:
… Rudy Giuliani says he’s seriously considering another White House run — a bid that would look dramatically different than his campaign four years ago…
[Former New Hampshire GOP Chairman Wayne] Semprini, who has existed as something of a one-man Granite State band for the former mayor, believes there is a strong case to be made for Giuliani in the 2012 election, a race that all sides agree will play out around the economy.
“It’s a fact, and the reason for that is, we know who we’re up against, we know what the issues are and most Republicans recognize that it’s going to a take tough fiscal conservatives like Rudy Giuliani [to address the nation’s ills],” Semprini said.
Any resuscitation of Giuliani after his disastrous 2008 campaign is certainly a long shot. In fact, the same could be said of Giuliani getting in the race at all.
But let’s put that aside and assume that Giuliani gets in and is able to convince voters to at least give him a second look. Is it unreasonable at that point to think that he could pose a formidable threat to Romney amongst center-right primary voters?
Consider the following: though Romney touts his business bona fides as being transferrable to federal politics, Giuliani has already demonstrated that he can govern as a fiscal conservative. While mayor of New York, he cut taxes, held down spending, presided over a huge decline in unemployment, and led privatization initiatives to cut down the size of government. You can argue that a portion of New York’s renewed vibrancy owed to national trends in the 1990s, but Giuliani has shown that he has the right instincts on these issues and the courage to act on his convictions. That’s a far cry from the man who gave us Romneycare.
On foreign policy, Giuliani’s credentials as a national security hawk far outstrip Romney’s (perhaps unfairly – Giuliani showed great courage and leadership in the aftermath of 9/11, but that’s not the same as having the right instincts to be commander-in-chief). And on social issues – where Giuliani’s pro-choice and pro-gay marriage stances put him afoul of the base – it’s not clear that he represents a worse option than Romney. After all, Romney has held nearly every position conceivable on these issues over the length of his career. Giuliani at least is honest about where he is. And given his background in the conservative legal movement, it’s not unreasonable to conjecture that his judicial appointments could be more conservative than the ‘pragmatic’ Romney’s.
Neither Giuliani nor Romney are candidates that devout conservatives are likely to relish in a vacuum. But if given the choice between the two, I wonder if a majority wouldn’t choose the former. And I bet Giuliani wonders the same thing.
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Dec '10
Re: Of Mike Murphy, Rick Perry, and Rudy Giuliani
Giuliani was my first choice in the 2008 Republican primaries. I had to argue with my fellow social con pro-life Christian friends, including some at Focus on the Family, that his legal conservatism was all that mattered on the abortion question at the Supreme Court. But, when I learned what a financial and strategic disaster his campaign was, I pretty much wrote him off. He is unlikely to get a second look from me unless Romney is the only other choice. Then, there's no question -- Rudy 2012.
Aug '10
Re: Of Mike Murphy, Rick Perry, and Rudy Giuliani
I would like to see Rudy G, Rick Perry, and Sarah Palin all jump into the race. Then everyone will have a chance to see how their first choice performs on the campaign trail.
Palin, Perry, and Bachmann will give the Evangelicals and Social Conservatives an opportunity to pick their strongest candidate.
Rudy will give the center right another option.
The media can continue their strange infatuation with the stalking horse Huntsman.
And everyone can decide for themselves who is most capable of-and serious about-dismantling the entitlement state.
Something for everybody, it's the American way.
Edited on July 17, 2011 at 4:25amNov '10
Re: Of Mike Murphy, Rick Perry, and Rudy Giuliani
Troy Senik
But let’s put that aside and assume that Giuliani gets in and is able to convince voters to at least give him a second look. Is it unreasonable at that point to think that he could pose a formidable threat to Romney amongst center-right primary voters?
It is certainly not unreasonable, but stop the teasing!
May '10
Re: Of Mike Murphy, Rick Perry, and Rudy Giuliani
There are no one-on-one match-ups. If Giuliani ran alone against Romney, then yes, he might have a chance against him. But Perry and Pawlenty would siphon votes from Rudy.
I'm not sure if Giuliani entering the race would help or hurt Romney overall.
Last time around, he was a favorite among conservatives who prioritized foreign policy and executive experience. His fiscal history was largely ignored in states far from New York. I assume he would play that up this time. Perry and Pawlenty are the other "experience" candidates this time.
At least some of the moderates Rudy attracts are different from those who like Romney. Romney at least nods at social conservatives, whereas Giuliani would attract those who hate social cons.
If he siphons more votes from Romney than from the more conservative candidates, I welcome his entry. Otherwise, I worry the conservative vote is already split too much to defeat Romney, even with Perry.
Edited on July 17, 2011 at 5:06amSep '10
Re: Of Mike Murphy, Rick Perry, and Rudy Giuliani
Perry is running. Everybody knows that. You guys (just listened to Peter Robinson on the last podcast) are trying very hard to cover for Murphy. 'He adds to the conversation' [comment redacted]
Edited on July 17, 2011 at 8:51amApr '11
Re: Of Mike Murphy, Rick Perry, and Rudy Giuliani
I'm personally tired of any candidate like Gingrinch, Giuliani and even Romney for that matter who has been long unemployed so to speak.
I get to interview and hire people from time to time on a very small scale at my job and I'm always leery of anyone who has been absent from the workforce as these gentlemen have.
I always favor someone who is employed when interviewing which shows me desire, commitment and depending on their answers during the interview, ability.
Would any large corporation or army, for that matter, choose a leader that isn't currently in the fray.
I know I certainly will not.
Jun '10
Re: Of Mike Murphy, Rick Perry, and Rudy Giuliani
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Edited on July 17, 2011 at 8:46amJun '10
Re: Of Mike Murphy, Rick Perry, and Rudy Giuliani
I admire Giuliani for many of his accomplishments and his principled stances. There are aspects of his personal life that are bound to be used as cannon fodder by the MSM and he should avoid the inclination to cross-dress. I think the only way that Giuliani gets any traction is if he could deliver an opening salvo akin to Reagan's "A Time For Choosing" speech. Otherwise it may be difficult to be take him seriously...and the clock is ticking.
Sep '10
Re: Of Mike Murphy, Rick Perry, and Rudy Giuliani
[Edited]
Edited on July 17, 2011 at 8:47amNov '10
Re: Of Mike Murphy, Rick Perry, and Rudy Giuliani
I agree Brian! :-)
As much as I admire- heck, if I was honest, I'd use the word adore- him, I think his time has come and gone.
Jun '10
Re: Of Mike Murphy, Rick Perry, and Rudy Giuliani
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Edited on July 17, 2011 at 8:48amSep '10
Re: Of Mike Murphy, Rick Perry, and Rudy Giuliani
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Edited on July 17, 2011 at 8:49amJun '10
Re: Of Mike Murphy, Rick Perry, and Rudy Giuliani
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Edited on July 17, 2011 at 8:46amSep '10
Re: Of Mike Murphy, Rick Perry, and Rudy Giuliani
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Edited on July 17, 2011 at 9:08amSep '10
Re: Of Mike Murphy, Rick Perry, and Rudy Giuliani
Jul '10
Re: Of Mike Murphy, Rick Perry, and Rudy Giuliani
In a two man race I will take Giuliani over Romney any day. And since he turned New York City around, I am happy to see him in the race even when he is not my first pick.
Mar '11
Re: Of Mike Murphy, Rick Perry, and Rudy Giuliani
I also recall Mr Murphy predicting that the Democrats will be pleased if Mr Perry wins the nomination, because he is a wacko Conservative (I am paraphrasing).
I guess the same would apply to Mr Giuliani.
Fortunately, Peter's point that the split Conservative vote will hand the nomination to Mr Romney would seem to obviate the need to discuss which wacko Conservative we prefer.
Unless one of the Conservatives starts to dominate the field - we shall see.
Edited on July 17, 2011 at 12:09pmMay '10
Re: Of Mike Murphy, Rick Perry, and Rudy Giuliani
Still wishing for Paul Ryan here. Supported Rudy in the primaries last time, but public transportation for his then mistress was a deal-killer for me.
Jun '11
Re: Of Mike Murphy, Rick Perry, and Rudy Giuliani
Mike Murphy's advice will win you the next election, but not the one after that.
To win again, and to make 2012 *worth* winning, you have to offer something that the voters aren't already telling you they want. You have to "make the weather". Don't just trim the sails.
Mr Murphy has experience -- perhaps too much. He has the understandable deformation professionnelle of a market researcher.
Sep '10
Re: Of Mike Murphy, Rick Perry, and Rudy Giuliani
Squishy Blue RINO: I would like to see Rudy G, Rick Perry, and Sarah Palin all jump into the race. Then everyone will have a chance to see how their first choice performs on the campaign trail.
Palin, Perry, and Bachmann will give the Evangelicals and Social Conservatives an opportunity to pick their strongest candidate.
Rudy will give the center right another option.
The media can continue their strange infatuation with the stalking horse Huntsman.
And everyone can decide for themselves who is most capable of-and serious about-dismantling the entitlement state.
Something for everybody, it's the American way. · Jul 16 at 7:20pm
Edited on Jul 16 at 07:25 pm
Double like.