Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
I'm here to give the layman's perspective. I think it's great that Ricochet has so many knowledgeable expert contributors on the Constitution and even many members familiar enough with the law and the Constitution to comment on Chief Justice Roberts' flawed jurisprudence. However... the sentiment that counts electorally is that of the average (likely) voter.
The average voter sentiment is supposedly best measured at Intrade -- where real people have real (figurative) skin in the game -- which was betting roughly 75% that Obamacare would be struck down. Let that sink in for a moment.
It's probably not an indication that 75% oppose the law, just that 75% were willing to gamble it would not stand. Those people had even more reason to feel physically ill upon hearing the decision than I did, having just lost their bet. But, I'm betting their visceral response, and that of a majority of likely voters, isn't only related to their monetary loss.
All the polls indicate that Obamacare has majority opposition. And if people have forgotten the crude and autocratic way in which the Democrats gave it to us, good and hard, I'm pretty sure Republicans will remind them. This is good. We want voters uncomfortable.
Chief Justice Roberts did us two huge favors. First, he reminded voters that they cannot rely on the SCOTUS to save them from overreaching government (shades of Kelo vs the City of New London). And second, he made voters aware that we cannot trust Democrats with the power to tax and spend, because they lie at every turn about what they're doing.
"It's not a tax!"
"It's going to lower premiums and reduce the deficit."
Only the true believers in the European social democratic project undertaken by the Democrats don't care about the deception. Well, true lefties and clueless gullible youngsters who don't know they're on the hook to pay for all this free stuff down the line. Everyone else -- and this is most important -- but especially the mushy middle feel surprised and insulted by what just happened. The new-found clarity about the choices in this election helps the mushy middle realize, it's decision time.
Romney doesn't need to appeal to the base! Pshaw! He just needs to engage the voters' prefrontal cortices a la Arthur Brooks:
"Democrats tax too much."
"Democrats spend way more than we can ever afford."
"Democrats make false promises -- or, in other words, they lie."
This is why I'm happy. It took me a couple hours to get here after hearing the decision. But, I'm feeling pretty good now. I think Romney is likely to win, Republicans are likely to decimate Democrats in Congressional elections, and we'll have Chief Justice Roberts to thank for it.
The pessimism? Well, we're fallen human beings. Socialism is a serpent with an apple. People seem incapable of resisting the lie of the free lunch. I think this is a short short-term win for Obama. A short-term win for Republicans. But, over the long-term, the only thing to save us from ourselves is divine intervention. And since I put no faith in man, that's good enough for me.
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Apr '11
Re: Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
Paul Erickson: I am by nature an optimist, but I have a bad feeling about this. Expect a wave of support for his O-ness. As someone said in another thread, everyone loves a winner, and it won't take much spin to make him appear thus.
I am feeling less confident of a Romney win and republican wave. · 3 minutes ago
For those who take Rasmussen seriously, Obama had a massive night of polling last night. He was down four points yesterday, but went into a tie today. He made up all of that distance in one day of a three-day track. And his approval numbers in every other poll are still high, and he is still beating us big in swing states. Obama now leads in every poll in the RCP average, including Rasmussen. Romney's polling has been crumbling for the last two weeks.
Again, that vaunted "preference cascade" that some us, including me, have been predicting for two years still just hasn't happened. And it's not going to... The American people just desperately want to love this guy. I don't understand it, but I now acknowledge that we can't beat it.
Edited on June 29, 2012 at 6:19pmJun '11
Re: Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
Since you reference political futures trading on the Obamacare issue at Intrade I'll just point out that the contract that was being traded was not whether Obamacare would be struck down. There are actually two contracts, the most important one being:
The US Supreme Court to rule individual mandate unconstitutional before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012
The second contract is the same except for a 12/31/2013 closing date. Like nearly everyone else Intrade didn't contemplate that the individual mandate would be changed by the CJ to a tax and then deemed constitutional. There is so much back-and-forth about this that the contract isn't even at zero today-- it's trading around 3%.
The larger point is that, if the contract would have actually been for the court striking down Obamacare, it wouldn't have been trading in the 70-80% range. In fact, there's a school of thought that says the YES contract was, in fact, correct since 5 justices were against the individual mandate as it was described in the law before Roberts re-wrote it. That's why the contract isn't currently at zero, btw.
Aug '10
Re: Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
I'll quote Chou En Lai here. "it's too early to tell" .
Those were (supposedly) his response to being queried about the French Revolution.
Still relevant and we're still feeling it .
Is is too early to tell (1) whether the Tea Party will wake up and grow like crazy (2) if this will become the centerpiece of debate for the election (3 ) people will sit back and say "gosh my insurance bills are sky high and I don't care who I have to kiss to make them go down" ?
Too early to tell about those 2010 election results. But hopeful nonetheless.
Dec '10
Re: Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
Paul Erickson: I am by nature an optimist, but I have a bad feeling about this. Expect a wave of support for his O-ness. As someone said in another thread, everyone loves a winner, and it won't take much spin to make him appear thus.
I am feeling less confident of a Romney win and republican wave. · 30 minutes ago
Romney gained over $4 million in fundraising yesterday. Is that right?
I'm not, by nature, an optimist. I prefer Chesterton's "happy pessimist" characterization. I refuse to despair on this ruling though (although it is painful that Roberts was the decider) until we know the results of the election. If Romney loses, I would give serious thought to moving to the conservative's Canada -- Texas. It seems to me it is the last bastion of the American spirit.
Mar '11
Re: Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
To be honest, I'm just waiting for Ben Domenech to let us in on the best kind of drunk to get over this.
Dec '10
Re: Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
The King Prawn
I have hope and optimism because a clarion call has been sounded for the American people to shake off their lethargy and reclaim their spirit. If they don't, then I'll despair, but until that happens I will argue for the cause. I pray hope does triumph over experience this time
King, I'm with you. I've never been a pessimist, as a kid, I thought flying was just a matter of finding the right red cape. Yesterday we took a big strategic loss, going forward all we can do is all we can do, which means getting Romney elected so we can recover as much of our freedoms and prosperity as possible. The problem is that's all tactical rear guard.
We're losing strategically. It's like the Japanese just sank everything docked on battleship row and now we have to fight the battle of Midway without the third carrier and we're short on dive bombers and fighters. We will win some of the engagements but we are way behind and the final outcome looks to be at best uncertain ...
Oct '10
Re: Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
Even after listening to Law Talk today, I am more optimistic than pessimistic. But like Tabula I need some more time to form a rational opinion. That said, I do believe optimistic people tend to be more likely to try and change things rather than accept a bad situation. These are dark days. We need to get into power, and then we need to govern well. We should be putting all of our effort into first electing a Republican president and Senate, and keeping the House. Once elected, we need continue to stay active to make those we elected govern as conservatives, knowing full well that occasionally they will disappoint us.
Aug '10
Re: Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
wmartin
The American people just desperately want to love this guy. I don't understand it, but I now acknowledge that we can't beat it.
Maybe we can't. But we still have to try.
Lemon Everclear? When life gives ya lemons...