Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
I'm here to give the layman's perspective. I think it's great that Ricochet has so many knowledgeable expert contributors on the Constitution and even many members familiar enough with the law and the Constitution to comment on Chief Justice Roberts' flawed jurisprudence. However... the sentiment that counts electorally is that of the average (likely) voter.
The average voter sentiment is supposedly best measured at Intrade -- where real people have real (figurative) skin in the game -- which was betting roughly 75% that Obamacare would be struck down. Let that sink in for a moment.
It's probably not an indication that 75% oppose the law, just that 75% were willing to gamble it would not stand. Those people had even more reason to feel physically ill upon hearing the decision than I did, having just lost their bet. But, I'm betting their visceral response, and that of a majority of likely voters, isn't only related to their monetary loss.
All the polls indicate that Obamacare has majority opposition. And if people have forgotten the crude and autocratic way in which the Democrats gave it to us, good and hard, I'm pretty sure Republicans will remind them. This is good. We want voters uncomfortable.
Chief Justice Roberts did us two huge favors. First, he reminded voters that they cannot rely on the SCOTUS to save them from overreaching government (shades of Kelo vs the City of New London). And second, he made voters aware that we cannot trust Democrats with the power to tax and spend, because they lie at every turn about what they're doing.
"It's not a tax!"
"It's going to lower premiums and reduce the deficit."
Only the true believers in the European social democratic project undertaken by the Democrats don't care about the deception. Well, true lefties and clueless gullible youngsters who don't know they're on the hook to pay for all this free stuff down the line. Everyone else -- and this is most important -- but especially the mushy middle feel surprised and insulted by what just happened. The new-found clarity about the choices in this election helps the mushy middle realize, it's decision time.
Romney doesn't need to appeal to the base! Pshaw! He just needs to engage the voters' prefrontal cortices a la Arthur Brooks:
"Democrats tax too much."
"Democrats spend way more than we can ever afford."
"Democrats make false promises -- or, in other words, they lie."
This is why I'm happy. It took me a couple hours to get here after hearing the decision. But, I'm feeling pretty good now. I think Romney is likely to win, Republicans are likely to decimate Democrats in Congressional elections, and we'll have Chief Justice Roberts to thank for it.
The pessimism? Well, we're fallen human beings. Socialism is a serpent with an apple. People seem incapable of resisting the lie of the free lunch. I think this is a short short-term win for Obama. A short-term win for Republicans. But, over the long-term, the only thing to save us from ourselves is divine intervention. And since I put no faith in man, that's good enough for me.
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May '10
Re: Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
A swing voter I know (not the sharpest tool in the shed) said this today:
"Well, five judges voted for it, so it can't be that bad."
Nov '11
Re: Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
Sounds right on to me.
Republicans need to make people remember why they voted the way they did in 2010.
May '10
Re: Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
I'm waiting for the stories of people showing up at random doctors' office for their free Obamataxcare.
At this moment, I am neither pessimistically happy nor happily pessimistic. I'm sandy. I'm keeping my head there for a few days. Then I will read the analysis. I suspect I will be pessimistically and cynically happy because that's my natural state.
May '10
Re: Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
I'm mainly angry that Obamacare was even considered by SCOTUS. It's not valid law. We don't authorize legislators to vote blindly.
Nov '11
Re: Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
My stomach has finally stopped churning, my Rosary has been rattling all day - and my newly-18-year-old nephew has registered to vote - so he can help dethrone you-know-who. "Patient endurance attaineth to all things."
Dec '10
Re: Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
Aaron Miller: A swing voter I know (not the sharpest tool in the shed) said this today:
"Well, five judges voted for it, so it can't be thatbad." · 37 minutes ago
Just curious. How old is this person?
Mar '11
Re: Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
Western Chauvinist:
All the polls indicate that Obamacare has majority opposition. And if people have forgotten the crude and autocratic way in which the Democrats gave it to us, good and hard, I'm pretty sure Republicans will remind them. This is good. We want voters uncomfortable.
Roberts' decision has called the Tea Party's bluff.
The Tea Party brought the h(H)ouse down in 2010 with anger over healthcare. If there is any spark left in the movment, today should provide enough fuel to overturn not only Obamacare but Obama himself - truly a silver lining to a disappointing outcome.
But can the Tea Party step back up? They've certainly seemed quite quiet this year...
Jun '10
Re: Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
I, of course, am angered and a bit depressed by the bizarre way this decision was made, but then why would I be? Obamacare was passed in an underhanded way by the Dems in the middle of the night.
But I'm still sticking to my belief that Obama can't run away from Obamacare now, and that each Democrat who voted for it (including Senators Tester, McCaskill, and Bill Nelson) are now firmly owners of it as well. Played right (certainly a wild card) this can lead to another Republican wave election and Obamacare's repeal. Romney's election is now absolutely essential.
So you can put me down as tentatively optimistic about repeal, utterly perplexed about Robert's decision (one of the oddest things I've ever witnessed), and quite pessimistic about American culture.
Do you have a big enough spread sheet to accomodate all those variables?
And I'm tired. I like Edward Smith's suggestion to take the week off and watch some Three Stooges. I don't want to talk about it until Monday, when we may begin to see if there's polling fallout.
Edited on June 29, 2012 at 4:52pmDec '10
Re: Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
I'll be uncharacteristically optimistic for now. First, absolutely nothing changed today. Every usurpation of our liberty that existed before the decision came down remains and no immediate new ones were created. Second, I already have health insurance, so there is no direct immediate effect on my life with this ruling. Third, with the SCOTUS declaring it a tax the democrats must now defend an enormous direct tax increase. Fourth, the door was closed on using the commerce clause to empower government to do whatever it wants. Fifth, any other bold moves to direct our lives will have to be labeled and sold as a tax, so fat chance on congress pushing on any of those in the immediate future. In essence, it could have gone better, but it also could have gone worse.
Dec '10
Re: Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
Just can't share the optimism. Obama and the Left, in general, have fundamentally damaged not just the idea of America, but, have also inflicted permanent harm to the American spirit - the core of our freedom and exceptionalism.
At the end of the presidential election in 1980, Jack Kemp made the comment, "tonight the fate of Western Civilization hangs in the balance". America was on the verge of economic disaster, inflation was 15% and spiraling out of control, interest rates were over 15%, years of wage and price controls distorted business activity and decisions, tax rates were 73%, most savings went into nonproductive tax shelters, the economy was dead in the water, the military was a hollow force, Ameria was suffering a crisis of confidence.
Reagan's eloquence in championing personal freedom, free markets, and American exceptionalism restored America's confidence and recharged the American spirit. The Reagan Revolution changed everything and was the direct catalyst that unleashed almost three decades of unprecedented prosperity.
The torrent of oppressive statist dictates from our current administrative state, exemplified by Obamacare and SCOTUS, have for the most part defeated the Reagan Revolution. It's different now, there's really no path back.
Edited on June 29, 2012 at 1:55pmDec '10
Re: Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
I have hope and optimism because a clarion call has been sounded for the American people to shake off their lethargy and reclaim their spirit. If they don't, then I'll despair, but until that happens I will argue for the cause. I pray hope does triumph over experience this time...
May '10
Re: Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
Western Chauvinist
Aaron Miller: A swing voter I know (not the sharpest tool in the shed) said this today:
"Well, five judges voted for it, so it can't be thatbad."
Just curious. How old is this person?
26, I think. The sort of person who enjoys reality TV.
Dec '11
Re: Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
It may not be my preferred policy outcome, but we won the arguements we made.
Dec '10
Re: Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
Did we win the battle or the war? I'm not really certain how it will shake out, so maybe a little patience will see us washing off the ashes and putting the hair shirts away.
Jun '10
Re: Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
More and more, I'm coming to the conclusion that the more power the Government gains (power over its citizens), the weaker it actually becomes. And for this republic, that's dangerous.
I cannot help but to think Roberts and this court took a sledgehammer to what will turn out to be a load-bearing wall.
Jun '10
Re: Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
Jim Chase:
I cannot help but to think Roberts and this court took a sledgehammer to what will turn out to be a load-bearing wall. · 1 hour ago
Great insight. You may be right. Maybe that's the only medicine that will work.
Oct '10
Re: Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
The decision does enforce a certain clarity.
For example, it is clear that every time someone refers to the NYT/WashPo/CNN axis of liberal establishmentism as having any cultural credibility they are enabling the sort of political trimming many suspect the Chief Justice of indulging in. Yes, Peter Robinson, that means you.
It is also clear that the days of relying on the back-room professionalism of a Boehner or the long-stop magic-wand of the Supremes to guard against GOP-establishment's go-along, get-along anti-liberty tendencies is past. If Obamacare is to be delenda est, it is up to right-thinking journalists and public intellectuals to do the hard work of explaining carefully and clearly to the American people what the stakes are, and what must be done. Yes, Peter Robinson, that means you.
If nothing else, this last requires a deliberate step away from the practice of impressionistic know-nothingist talking-head-dom that passes for journalism today. For example, before commenting on a legal decision, one should read it. Yes, Peter Robinson, that means you.
(And Peter, thanks for Ricochet!)
Mar '12
Re: Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
I am under the impression that we'll know the real outcome of this when the presidential election is held. If the Democrats can retain enough of the 2,000,000 dead voters in key locations, they may hold on. After all, they will have Moral Swamp NBC and CNN politicking for them.
Then, if felons are permitted to vote, real opportunity abounds for the Dems.
However if they cannot hold enough of those 2,000,000 dead voters and voting felons, we may win; but the question is what we'll win.
That remains to be seen.
May '11
Re: Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
I am by nature an optimist, but I have a bad feeling about this. Expect a wave of support for his O-ness. As someone said in another thread, everyone loves a winner, and it won't take much spin to make him appear thus.
I am feeling less confident of a Romney win and republican wave.
Jun '10
Re: Obamacare Ruling -- Happily Pessimistic or Pessimistically Happy?
I'm quite sure the Serpent of Socialism will win the day. Eventually. Plato warned us that a democracy of poor people (aka government dependents) would never work. Tocqueville predicted the American republic would fall when politicians figured out how to bribe citizens with their own money. Well, we've arrived!
I was hoping that Europe might implode before the American election as a warning and a lesson. This morning the Europeans announced they would recapitalize failing banks. The can is kicked down the road once again, the day of reckoning postponed. We could repeal Obamacare on January 21st of next year, and I doubt it would matter in the end. We passed the point of critical mass awhile back, and Mitt Romney isn't the man to initiate the radical reforms we need anyway.
Prepare you well, brothers and sisters. There will be dark days ahead. And I think Western Chauvinist has it about right; only Providence can save us now.