Obama's Up. Pawlenty's Swinging.
Gallup reports that Obama's approval rating is surging to its highest number in a year and a quarter:
President Obama’s current job approval rating for May 22-24 is 53%. That’s his highest since Feb. 12-14, 2010 -- more than 16 months ago. His previous high this year was 52%, reached at several points earlier this month after the May 1 announcement of the successful raid in Pakistan that resulted in the death of Osama bin Laden.
Gallup offers an interesting piece of analysis:
Looking ahead, the magic number for Obama is 48%. That is, if he can manage a 48% or higher job approval rating in the fall of 2012, then his chances for re-election are better than 50-50. If his job approval rating in September and October of 2012 is 53%, where it is today, then his chances of being re-elected would be very high. Stay tuned.
I don't really know why the magic number is 48%, but that seems about right to me. Here's what his approval numbers look like in a pretty graph:
He's spent about half the time under the 48% number, the other half above, and now he's moving up again. So, whatever else 2012 is, it'll keep us guessing for at least another year.
On the other hand, at least one candidate out there is readying for a brawl. From Tim Pawlenty's Twitter feed:
The only way to get him below 48% and keep him there is to hammer him daily.
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Comments :
Sep '10
Re: Obama's Up. Pawlenty's Swinging.
Pawlenty's learnt from when Trump went -- as Steyn phrased it -- "Full-Birther". Hit him hard, hit him often, and don't stop hitting. Obama will eventually go full "Steve Martin when he hears cleaning woman in Dead Men Don't Wear Plaid."
Apr '11
Re: Obama's Up. Pawlenty's Swinging.
Your right Rob, Trump gave us a taste that Obama can't take a full court press.
Pawlenty or whomever may emerge need to keep exposing his failures, false promises and lack of leadership. Victor Davis Hanson's recent piece was a great list of his weaknesses and inconsistencies.
I heard Hugh Hewitt and Mark Steyn discussing the fact the he has never been truly challenged and does not have what it takes have to defend himself with real positions or effective policies.
Mar '11
Re: Obama's Up. Pawlenty's Swinging.
Probably an over-sampling of the Irish vote.
May '10
Re: Obama's Up. Pawlenty's Swinging.
Yabbut, like Jim Geraghty, I question the wisdom of this attack. T-Paw won't be able to set foot in a bar now for the entire campaign.
Aug '10
Re: Obama's Up. Pawlenty's Swinging.
What the heck happend a week ago? Did they kill Osama bin Laden again?
May '10
Re: Obama's Up. Pawlenty's Swinging.
People like him best when he's not around. That sounds flippant, but it's actually true. The idea of Obama is better than the reality.
Oh wait. That makes no sense. He wasn't abroad last week. Maybe it was all the pantless people, while he remained blessedly bepantsed.
Edited on May 26, 2011 at 6:49pmDec '10
Re: Obama's Up. Pawlenty's Swinging.
You have to be careful how you hit Obama. You don't want him to have an opening to use the Charlie Brown Gambit (The Coasters, not Peanuts): "Why's everybody always picking on me?" The hits have to be the kind that force a response by making the casual observer say, "You know, I've wondered the same thing myself. How about it, Mr. President? What's your answer?"
Jun '10
Re: Obama's Up. Pawlenty's Swinging.
"T-Paw won't be able to set foot in a bar now for the entire campaign."
No, he'll be fine at pubs in the US.....it's the idea of popping off for a European jaunt with all the accompanying fanfare while our country is such a mess that looks bad. Pawlenty just needs to keep some quips on the ready for when a reporter asks him why it's ok for him to have a pint but not Obama. Something that conveys that he is enjoying a beer to relax after working hard & putting forth innovative plans and making hard decisions --- not using the pub as an escape from reality.
This twitter message makes me think he'll handle it quite well.....it was very funny & very apt.