Obama's Next Move
The next two or three weeks should be interesting. Barring some sort of last minute compromise, the sequester will come into effect. Given the size of the federal budget, the actual effects of cutting a few billion -- not from the budget as it existed in 2012 but from its projected increase -- should be trivial. But it is in the power of the President to make it painful; and, if this President is true to form, he will make it as painful as possible.
Everyone has seen this before at the state level. The legislature trims the projected budget, and the Governor, intent on expanding patronage, responds by declaring an emergency and by cutting access to state parks, library hours . . . you name it. The point is to rally the public against the legislature by cutting popular items while carefully protecting the pork that sustains the Governor's political party.
This sort of irresponsibility is, I suspect, what we will soon see at the federal level. The difference is that Obama will be more brazen and audacious than any Governor has ever been. I will be flying to New York on Friday to give a talk at the annual meeting of the National Association of Scholars. I would not at all be surprised if there is a shortage of TSA personnel managing the security lines and if the Air Traffic Controllers are in such short supply that things grind almost to a stop. If my guess is right, it will be Obama's calculation that he can soon bring John Boehner, Mitch McConnell, and the Republicans in Congress to their knees. If he makes the attempt and they cave, you can kiss even the most modest attempt at fiscal responsibility goodbye. The name of the game for our President is to force a crisis that will eventuate in massive tax increases -- first on high earners and then on the middle class more generally.
The Republicans are at a disadvantage. Obama commands the bully pulpit and our partisan press will make sure that he is heard loud and clear. The Republicans do not have a standard-bearer. There is no one authorized to speak for them, and their leadership in Congress, while canny, is anything but eloquent. Senator McConnell, whom I greatly admire, is the master of mumbling, and John Boehner, whom I also admire, is quiet and plain-spoken.
That is one problem. There is another. CNN, NBC, CBS, ABC, and MSNBC are not going to give the Republicans a platform. They will broadcast Obama's remarks over and over again. They will shut out our representatives.
What this means is that it will take courage for the Republicans to stand their ground. They and everyone who supports their stand must speak up or much will be lost. The common thread should be simple: "The sequester cuts nothing from last year's budget. It cuts very little from the projected budget for 2013. The President has it in his power to keep things running smoothly, and the misery being inflicted on our fellow citizens is entirely his doing."
If the Republicans can weather the crisis that Barack Obama has manufactured, if they can stand their ground, Barack Obama's second term will be like most Presidents' second terms -- dreary. Step by step, the malfeasance of his first term will become visible, and he will twist slowly, slowly in the wind.
If, on the other hand, the Republicans cave, conservatives may well lose heart and sit on their hands or vote Libertarian in November 2014; and our side may even lose the House of Representatives. A party that stands for nothing, a party that becomes synonymous with weakness, will not attract support. A great deal is at stake in this little tempest in a teapot. In the next few weeks, the Republicans can lay the foundation for a resurgence. Or they can demonstrate their fecklessness and their worthlessness.
Stay tuned.
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Re: Obama's Next Move
Paul, a question please sir: While I endorse your prescription, I've heard conflicting analysis of sequestration. One is that the President retains some flexibility in determining how these "cuts" play out, hence his determination to slice first-line functions rather than the balding functionary in charge of closing coal plants at EPA. The other is that these are across the board cuts that allow no flexibility or manageability. Any insights into this?
Sep '10
Re: Obama's Next Move
Its just my opinion based on the tiny ammount of this information I can gleen before nausea sets in, but, I believe he is on a campaign to show those of us ignorant enough to still believe in the relative unimportance of government versus the private sector that we are wrong and he can do this best by showing us what real chaos ensues when we get our wish of tiny cuts in government spending. Because this is born out of deep ideology and also happens to be the only thing he knows how to do which is campaign. I believe it will happen just as he wants it to. Someone on Bloomberg radio this morning said that hapless Republican Congressmen like Scott Rigel of Newport News are attempting to craft a compromise that will give the President flexibility...yes, and those are all ethnic Germans seeking freedom in the Sudetenland.
May '12
Re: Obama's Next Move
The republican retreat began in earnest over the weekend. I recall Speaker Boehner saying regarding he debt ceiling extension to May that the House will wait on the Senate to pass a budget. The republicans are already folding on that commitment and working on more continuing resolutions.
Republicans are very good at soliciting campaign contributions becasue the Senate has failed to pass a budget for more than a 1,000 days, but then keep handing Reid and Obama a blank check in the form of ever escalating continuing resolutions.
Too bad we can't lay off IRS agents and EPA inspectors if/when the sequester hits.
Re: Obama's Next Move
Inevitably, there is an element of discretion involved. How much is unclear to me and probably unclear to nearly everyone. Even across-the-board cuts have to be administered. Do we cut the pencil budget in this office? Or do we furlough staff?
Dec '10
Re: Obama's Next Move
Obama has me over a barrel. A 10% cut really shouldn't be that big of a deal, but he'll make it as big a deal as possible. DoD is already moving forward with that by beaching carriers rather than maintaining and deploying them and preparing for a furlough of all (except the few favored) DoD employees which will equate to a 20% pay cut from April through September. What it means for me in reality is much greater than a 20% cut. There will be no overtime authorized, and overtime makes up an expected portion of my income. Everything that happens at my facility requires overtime. The place will effectively be shut down. Sure, we'll still show up and collect our 32 hours per week, but we won't move missiles. At some point SUBPAC will have to confess to STRATCOM that the U.S. Pacific Submarine Fleet simply cannot achieve its strategic mission or can only do so with reduced reliability. Welcome to Obama's back door to a nuclear weapon free United States.
Edited on February 26, 2013 at 3:56pmOct '12
Re: Obama's Next Move
The republicans will "fold like a cheap lawnchair". I do not see a leader on the Republican side who holds an informed belief in "small government". This is why Republicans are unable to make headway with the voters.
The approach is to find out what the voter wants and give that to the voter. The approach is not to "make the case" to the voter. We have slipped into that "soft despotism" predicted by de Tocqueville, as confirmed by the last election.
May '10
Re: Obama's Next Move
" In the next few weeks, the Republicans can lay the foundation for a resurgence. Or they can demonstrate their fecklessness and their worthlessness."
A betting man would bet on the latter outcome. The GOP has been an utter failure at even slowing socialism.
May '11
Re: Obama's Next Move
I cannot see an admiral accepting a reduction in the number of ships under his command. I cannot see the Secretary of Interior accepting the closing of major parks. I cannot see the Secretary of Homeland Security accepting major cuts in the TSA or in air traffic controllers. These are the center pieces, the "Gold Watches" of their kingdoms. They will do everything they can to "threaten" these cuts but if we call their bluff, they will back down. No admiral wants to be known as the admiral that "lost" the Navy.
Call their bluff. It's the only tool we have.
Dec '11
Re: Obama's Next Move
In my judgment Speaker Boehner and Senator McConnell have been worse than incompetent. They whine about the President not leading but they refuse to lead themselves. They could be passing and publicizing a bill that specifies cuts to Energy, Agriculture, Commerce, Housing, Education, SBA, EPA, IRS, etc, and restores the defense cuts. But they don't want to take responsibility for the cuts. The want to hide behind a bi-partisan agreement and give President Obama the discretion to choose the cuts. Everyone knows he will chose cuts that do the most harm.
Republicans need to stay on message instead of droning on with long arguments that do a poor job of making the point.
They could simply say:
President Obama would rather cut first responders than green energy subsidies.
Or,
President Obama would rather cut daycare than export subsidies.
Or,
President Obama would rather cut the TSA than Agriculture subsidies.
And say nothing more. Apparently, Republican don't even understand that the press will choose to report only their most unintelligible, ridiculous utterances.
Edited on February 26, 2013 at 4:40pmMar '12
Re: Obama's Next Move
Perhaps the GOP should steal a base from Obama and his friends on the Left: accuse the President of "cynicism," and suggest that if anyone is harmed because of cuts Obama chose to make there will be blood on his hands.
Re: Obama's Next Move
I agree. But the Republicans, from John McCain to Mitt Romney and beyond, have been unwilling to attack the man. He has been given a free ride.
Mar '11
Re: Obama's Next Move
Anyone want to take bets on whether or not Obama et al. are leveraging a Hagel confirmation at DoD against cutting necessary programs vs. obvious budget bloat?
Nov '10
Re: Obama's Next Move
The worst thing possible is that sequester takes place and nothing bad happens. So Obama has to make it as bad as he can.
Dave Carter: Why would Obama care about discretion? He does whatever he wants to do, he don’t need no stinking discretion.
Nov '10
Re: Obama's Next Move
Most important words in Paul Rahe’s post:
it will take courage for the Republicans to stand their ground...
If the Republicans can weather the crisis that Barack Obama has manufactured...
If, on the other hand, the Republicans cave...
they can demonstrate their fecklessness and their worthlessness...
To sum up, we are doomed.
Dec '12
Re: Obama's Next Move
As an ex-fed employee, I’ve said this before but it bears repeating. Agencies have lots of things they can cut before they get to the essential services they provide. This sequester could be quite harmless and unnoticed.
However, the Senior Executive Service people, although they usually come up from the ranks in an organization, are selected because their values align with the party in the White House. I am quite sure that there currently is pressure on civil servants by their “leaders” to make sure the cuts are noticeable and harmful, even though they do not have to be. If this White House were actually transparent, citizens could use FOIA to find out what directions agencies were receiving. But many agencies have learned the dangers of emails and give direction only on conference calls that include only SES people.
Sometimes (rarely) there are people on those calls who are appalled by the direction they are given, but who are too intimidated to do anything to disclose it or stop it.
May '10
Re: Obama's Next Move
Whatever the formula for administering cuts, whether totally across the board or administered department by department with discretion, or whatever, Obama and his myrmidons will use their discretion to create maximum havoc: Furlough air traffic controllers, close the Washington Monument, suspend Medicare reimbursements. Whatever you can imagine.
The media will obsequiously play along.
As far as betting on Republicans, as Damon Runyon said "The race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that is the way to bet." I'm not betting on the GOP.
Re: Obama's Next Move
The King Prawn: Obama has me over a barrel. A 10% cut really shouldn't be that big of a deal, but he'll make it as big a deal as possible. DoD is already moving forward with that by beaching carriers rather than maintaining and deploying them and preparing for a furlough of all (except the few favored) DoD employees which will equate to a 20% pay cut from April through September. What it means for me in reality is much greater than a 20% cut. There will be no overtime authorized, and overtime makes up an expected portion of my income. Everything that happens at my facility requires overtime. The place will effectively be shut down. Sure, we'll still show up and collect our 32 hours per week, but we won't move missiles. At some point SUBPAC will have to confess to STRATCOM that the U.S. Pacific Submarine Fleet simply cannot achieve its strategic mission or can only do so with reduced reliability. Welcome to Obama's back door to a nuclear weapon free United States. · 3 hours ago
Edited 3 hours ago
Very interesting -- and revealing of what is to come.
Feb '11
Re: Obama's Next Move
I agree. This is also why I no longer donate to any of the national Republican organizations. My financial support is now solely targeted to individual politicians and campaigns. The national Republican leadership does not demonstrate the stomach for the existensial knife fight that we are in.
Edited on February 26, 2013 at 7:40pmFeb '11
Re: Obama's Next Move
I suspect the GOP has already doomed itself.
I found it interesting that after the left began their latest effort to disarm the American people no one rested easy, secure in the knowledge that the GOP still controlled the House of Representatives.
People cleared store shelves of guns and ammunition.
I take that as a sign that the public is simply assuming that the GOP will fail- yet again- and is acting upon that assumption.
In short, the GOP has already become synonymous with weakness. An unexpected success in the current sequester kerfluffle would do very little to change that, in my opinion. Too much damage has already been done to the party and its reputation.
May '10
Re: Obama's Next Move
Of course they will cave. They have caved at every other opportunity. It is always fight another day.
The GOP stands for being the JR partner in big government. It stands for rich white guys that want to go along to get along.
I am a middle income, married, middle aged white family man.
No party speaks for me. They just want my money and my vote and want me to shut up.