Jonathan Tobin, writing at Commentary Contentions, does a nice job of looking underneath Obama's approval/disapproval ratings. Yes, in the aggregate, they have improved somewhat lately, but they still languish in the high 40s. But we don't elect presidents by a nationwide popular vote. We do it state by state. And when you look state by state, Tobin identifies a serious problem for Obama:
"The spectacle of the GOP’s internecine warfare and slightly better, though by no means encouraging, economic statistics have led some to believe the president may have an easier time this fall than many had thought just a few months ago. But the latest Gallup survey of the president’s approval ratings tells a very different story. Breaking down the job approval numbers state by state, Gallup presents a picture that ought to be deeply distressing to the White House.
If you add up the states where the president has a net positive approval rating in 2011, you only get a total of 215 electoral votes, while those where he has a net negative rating amount to 323. If these numbers remain unchanged through the fall that would mean a decisive loss in the Electoral College for Obama."
In states that Obama won in 2008, many have lower than average approval rates: IN 40.1; NV 41.3; CO 40.4; NM 41.7; FL 43.6; NC 43.7; VA 44.5; PA 45.0. Tobin is quick to concede that we have a long time before election day and a lot of things can change (though a seriously improving economy seems less and less likely). Bottom line: whomever our nominee may be, let's not give up hope. Obama has done a nice job making himself unpopular, and we'll have a chance to let voters remember his sorry record a lot between now and November.
My state, Utah, has the lowest approval rating, 28.6. In only ten states is Obama's approval rating higher than 50 percent.
- Comment (19)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (3)
Comments :
Nov '10
Re: Obama's Approval Ratings (Even Though Improving Slightly) Mask a Serious Problem for His Reelection Campaign
Here I was thinking that it is a serious problem.
Apr '11
Re: Obama's Approval Ratings (Even Though Improving Slightly) Mask a Serious Problem for His Reelection Campaign
He's back down to 44% in Gallup today, and dropping in Rasmussen again.
Feb '11
Re: Obama's Approval Ratings (Even Though Improving Slightly) Mask a Serious Problem for His Reelection Campaign
This poll is against "Republican candidate" with no history, no record, no previous mud-slinging opponents, no dumb answers to dumber questions, no unforced errors and no third party candidate.
Show me the poll that is taken on 17 December.
Apr '11
Re: Obama's Approval Ratings (Even Though Improving Slightly) Mask a Serious Problem for His Reelection Campaign
I confidently predict his approval rating will remain above 80% in the District of Columbia.
Nice link.
Jul '10
Re: Obama's Approval Ratings (Even Though Improving Slightly) Mask a Serious Problem for His Reelection Campaign
Glenn the Iconoclast: I confidently predict his approval rating will remain above 80% in the District of Columbia.
Nice link. · 11 hours ago
You realize that the current crisis in DC is black flight. Blacks are abandoning the horrible schools, the corrupt government, the stench and decay of Washington to seek a better life.
Now we just need to go to work on the Parties of Washington so they will follow that excellent example.
Edited on Feb 2 at 1:53pmDec '10
Re: Obama's Approval Ratings (Even Though Improving Slightly) Mask a Serious Problem for His Reelection Campaign
The devil is in the details. I hope this is a strong tell on how people will actually vote.
Mar '11
Re: Obama's Approval Ratings (Even Though Improving Slightly) Mask a Serious Problem for His Reelection Campaign
Similar analysis, along with some other concerns, front page over at politico today:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0212/72329.html
Jul '10
Re: Obama's Approval Ratings (Even Though Improving Slightly) Mask a Serious Problem for His Reelection Campaign
My state, Utah, has the lowest approval rating, 28.6.
Well done Utah.
Here are all of Barry's ratings over time, per Rasmussen.
Mar '11
Re: Obama's Approval Ratings (Even Though Improving Slightly) Mask a Serious Problem for His Reelection Campaign
Mr Tobin is a good antidote to Rob's pessimism.
Nov '10
Re: Obama's Approval Ratings (Even Though Improving Slightly) Mask a Serious Problem for His Reelection Campaign
How did this post, along with comments 22 hours old, get placed again at the top of both the Main and Member feeds and marked less than an hour old?
Apr '11
Re: Obama's Approval Ratings (Even Though Improving Slightly) Mask a Serious Problem for His Reelection Campaign
I thought eveyone was familiar with that phenomenon: when posts get "promoted" from the member page to the main, they start life anew.
Jun '10
Re: Obama's Approval Ratings (Even Though Improving Slightly) Mask a Serious Problem for His Reelection Campaign
Israel P.: This poll is against "Republican candidate" with no history, no record, no previous mud-slinging opponents, no dumb answers to dumber questions, no unforced errors and no third party candidate.
Show me the poll that is taken on 17 December. · 14 hours ago
I agree that it is far from predictive. But, all things being equal, I'd rather have only 4 to 4.5 of ten voters in swing states approving of Obama. It will then be the Republican's job to close the deal.
Dec '10
Re: Obama's Approval Ratings (Even Though Improving Slightly) Mask a Serious Problem for His Reelection Campaign
No worries, Obama's gonna help ya' pay off yer mortgage, forgive yer student loan, pass out free condoms, and fill yer gas tank using the fruits of his magic money tree. Who loves ya', baby?
Aug '10
Re: Obama's Approval Ratings (Even Though Improving Slightly) Mask a Serious Problem for His Reelection Campaign
Last six weeks of the news cycle before the election will be the deciding factor if something happens. Otherwise it will be the usual, oil will dip with the unemployment numbers, as the MSM tidies things up.
Aug '10
Re: Obama's Approval Ratings (Even Though Improving Slightly) Mask a Serious Problem for His Reelection Campaign
"Just a reminder, in June of 1992, Bill Clinton had a 16 percent favorability rating. Six-teen." @SeanTrende
Jul '10
Re: Obama's Approval Ratings (Even Though Improving Slightly) Mask a Serious Problem for His Reelection Campaign
Okay, but Bubba was an obscure governor at that point, not the President.
He was still working on his messaging regarding rickets.
Apr '11
Re: Obama's Approval Ratings (Even Though Improving Slightly) Mask a Serious Problem for His Reelection Campaign
Obama may be very popular in blue states like California, and they may be the voters who stick with him regardless of his success in office because they can never abandon an African American President. But in purple states like Ohio and Florida and Missouri, people are more likely to look past his race to his performance. And alot of people who now say that they have a favorable view of the President will ultimately vote him out of office because, on election day, they cannot avoid the conclusion that his administration has been a total and complete failure.
Apr '11
Re: Obama's Approval Ratings (Even Though Improving Slightly) Mask a Serious Problem for His Reelection Campaign
flownover, we need a high-res version of the silver-dog. It must be pre-1912, but probably post-1892, and that cartoon doesn't match any election in that period, does it?
Apr '11
Re: Obama's Approval Ratings (Even Though Improving Slightly) Mask a Serious Problem for His Reelection Campaign
Courtesy of flownover, that cartoon appears here.