Obama: Too Popular to Be Unpopular?
At The New Republic, Jonathan Chait makes a mystifying 'argument':
Right now, President Obama's approval rating is hovering just below 50%, about even with his disapproval rating. Given the state of the economy, that's not low. (I don't have any models handy.) In other words, writing a Noonan-esque column about why Americans are uncomfortable with Obama does not actually make much sense. If Obama were at 30%, then there would be a lot to explain. Alternatively, if the economy was booming and unemployment was plunging and Obama had the same approval rating, then it would make sense to ask what he's doing that Americans don't like. But right now, there's really nothing to explain.
Chait begs all the obvious questions: what if Obama were at 40%? Or 45%? Do we need a statistician to tell us when we can begin to speak in qualitative generalities? Chait's own unwillingness to name a numerical threshold suggests not. Then why not a column on American discomfort with Obama? Isn't it possible that even some Americans who would not describe their attitude toward Obama as one of 'disapproval' are nonetheless uncomfortable with his performance?
Yes, Peggy Noonan veers into narrative mysticism. But Chait's complaint isn't just with Noonan -- it's with anyone who would ask aloud why Obama and his works are not the delight of the nation. Any such person, Chait tells us, is "Noonan-esque" -- because unless Obama's approval ratings fall to some number between 31 and 49 per cent, which nevertheless must not be named, there is nothing to explain about public opposition to the sitting administration. Who's indulging in qualitative mysticism, again?
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Comments :
May '10
Re: Obama: Too Popular to Be Unpopular?
It's important to note one key factor that makes Obama's approval ratings somewhat more difficult to analyze than previous presidents: his approval among African Americans is seemingly impervious to events. This means that he is starting with a nearly 10% baseline, which skews all the figures. Among the 90% of the population among whom Obama's approval rating is actually volatile, his approval is likely touching 40% at this point. With understandable African American pride and support such as it is, I think it is unlikely that this president could ever slump in overall approval to, say, Bush levels.