Obama - The Test
Regardless of its merits, the proposed Obama-McConnell “tax deal” is turning into a major clarifying point for Barack Obama and his presidency – clarifying, specifically, for whether Obama can meet the real test of leadership, which is getting people to do things they don’t particularly want to do. A President who cannot persuade or force his own party in Congress to do what they are disinclined to do, on an issue of major importance, is not a leader; he is a wounded duck. Recall Jimmy Carter, circa 1977 – it was Carter’s inability to get the Democratic-controlled Senate to endorse his comprehensive energy program that first gave rise to the widespread perception that Carter was not a very effective leader – and just possibly in over his head.
Can Obama get the votes on this? The track record to date is not inspiring. Despite an 18-month record of legislative “accomplishment” invariably trotted out by his defenders, it’s not clear that he has yet persuaded anyone to do anything they didn’t already want to do. He certainly hasn’t persuaded Congressional Republicans in any numbers to support any of his major initiatives. And while Democrats in very large numbers have supported all of them, it’s pretty clear that no persuasion was needed. The Reid/Pelosi crowd wanted health care reform; they wanted the bailouts; they wanted the stimulus. And although some wanted more, the limiting factor has always been what could get 50 votes, or 60 votes, or 218 votes – not what the President wanted or didn’t want.
So I think this is shaping up to be the first real personal test of Obama’s presidency – a test not of the Democrats’ strength collectively, but of Obama’s own ability to lead. If he pulls it off, he’ll be well-positioned to be the “broker” – if he wants to be – among the different factions in Congress for the next two years, and he will be the decider of what gets brokered and what doesn’t. If he can’t pull this off, he’s likely to be reduced, at least for a while, to sideline-player status, chipping in every once in a while with a, “Hey, I’m still relevant here. Hello? Somebody?”
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Comments :
Nov '10
Re: Obama - The Test
What it clarifies is that, judging by his recent public pronouncements concerning the tax deal, Obama is a puling, petulant little putz — utterly unfit to be President.
May '10
Re: Obama - The Test
For all McCain's flaws, it was a bizarre election cycle that had Obama -- who has never talked anyone into doing anything politically in his life -- treated as the obvious negotiator and compromiser, while McCain -- who worked so often to put through bi-partisan and compromise legislation, sometimes spending years grinding away to get others on his side -- was treated as the inflexible extremist who could never "reach across the aisle."
President Bush, in Decision Points, repeatedly discusses the importance of not letting your opponent define you. Obama has been the master of both defining himself and his opponents, with no particular connection to reality.
The $64k question: Now that Obama has a record, and now that the country knows him and his rhetoric, can he do that again for 2012?
Re: Obama - The Test
I'm checking in late in the day--was in bed with the flu--but at this point, if I'm reading the news correctly, it looks as though Obama will indeed pull this off. Which actually sort of worries me. This is the first political act in his administration that I'd term deft. Even--and I shudder at the thought--Clintonesque.
Steve?
Jul '10
Re: Obama - The Test
Peter, I hope you don't have what I've suffered with for two weeks. Dreadful.
I don't think this was particularly deft on Obama's part. He simply calculated that to drag out the tax issue wasn't going to help him on the Left or with independents. Too much noise, too much heat.
So he gave in, as he was going to have to eventually, anyway. And then he came up with the payroll tax thing as a cherry on top of a big heaping of brussel sprouts.
He gets to look like a bit of a working-class hero for the unemployment benefits extension, but let's face it - that was going to happen anyway.
Don't give him credit for smarts he doesn't have.
Re: Obama - The Test
Peter -- "deft" is relative. Compared to the ideological ham-handedness of most of his first two years, this has been fairly deftly handled. (Note that in the latest poll 66% think the deal should be approved -- when was the last time 66% approved of anything Obama -- however reluctantly -- supported?) And I continue to believe there is ample room for Obama to stake out "the center" over the next two years. But the real question is -- how much stomach does he have for this? It's been obvious from his presser & statements that this is a bitter pill he's forced himself to swallow. Clearly, he felt he had no real choice. I suspect that his instincts will overwhelmingly pull him back in the direction of ideological rigidity going forward -- but who knows? Perhaps he will find broad-based popularity as a compromiser more to his liking than the adoraton of a minority. I doubt it, but the option remains open to him for now.
Re: Obama - The Test
Steve and Kenneth,
Hm. We've looked at the same events--and drawn opposite conclusions. I thought Obama spoke so testily about the left wing of the Democratic Party during his news conference yesterday because he's made a conscious decision that he'd like a second term. Who appears to be in charge in Washington? Barack Obama. Who's huffing and puffing with discontent? Nancy Pelosi, Barney Frank, Harry Reid, Dick Durbin--the very people from whom Obama needs to distance himself.
I grant, though, that your construction fits the facts about as well as mine. Time will tell. But if he keeps this up, you both may be willing to grant me the use of "deft" and then some.
Thanks for asking about my health, Kenneth. Pounding headache all day, darn it. About all I could do was sleep and flip through magazines. Couldn't focus well enough to read. Better this evening, though. And so to bed.
May '10
Re: Obama - The Test
I agree with you Peter to a point. I think that by the time the next election rolls around, Obama will be in full class warfare mode. Full of talk of what is fair and the need to reduce the deficit and making the Republicans look like hypocrites for not wanting to raise taxes.
In formulating this plan he is banking on Republicans operating in status quo mode. However, if over the next two years the Republican can articulate a case for making major cuts in how government operates, if they can make a case for how jobs are really created AND if they can refrain from nominating a retread LOSER from the last election cycle, then this narrative will prove hollow.
Obama has already shown us his game plan -- and it's a good one, but there is now the opportunity to mount an effective counter strategy provided Team R can get its act together.
May '10
Re: Obama - The Test
Peter Robinson: Steve and Kenneth,
Hm. We've looked at the same events--and drawn opposite conclusions. ...10:48pm
2B or not 2B? Is Obama an ambitious guy with socialist beliefs, smart enough to not leave a paper trail? Or Is he an ambitious guy who saw the left as a convenient pony to ride? I lean towards the first, but once you're POTUS it's easy to morph into the second. Where else can you get free helicopter rides?
Sep '10
Re: Obama - The Test
I sense a night of the long knives coming. He's throwing his left wing friends under the bus and will find few friends on the right. 6 months from now, he could be reciting Shakespeare alone in the Lincoln bedroom.