Obama Popularity Surging (Among Democrats)
This morning brings the news that President Obama's popularity is at a 2-year high! Wow! A 2-year high. That's impressive, isn't it? Here's NPR:
"President Barack Obama's approval rating has hit its highest point in two years — 60 percent — and more than half of Americans now say he deserves to be re-elected, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll taken after U.S. forces killed al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden."
All the media outlets are highlighting this news, since it's so dramatically different from Obama's regular numbers.
Wait, what's that you say? There's a problem with the polling numbers that hasn't been noticed by any of these mainstream media outlets?
What? That sample (which is of "adults" as opposed to any type of voter) skews Democrat by 17 points? Did you say 17 points? Jim Geraghty at The Campaign Spot notes that the AP's immediate preceding poll was 45 percent Democrat, 33 percent Republican. In October, the poll sample was 43 percent Democrat and 40 percent Republican:
With a poll sample that has a 17 percentage point margin in favor of the Democrats, is anyone surprised that these results look like a David Axelrod dream?
It's almost like the Associated Press chose a poll sample in such a way as to ensure unrealistic numbers for President Obama.
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Comments :
Jan '11
Re: Obama Popularity Surging (Among Democrats)
When they play these games, the AP (or MSNBC, etc.) act merely as "niche" news outlets, pandering to specific audiences. They flatter their audience, however, by trading on the assumption that they're really reporting on "national" opinion.
In other words, it's journalistic fraud.
May '10
Re: Obama Popularity Surging (Among Democrats)
You have to wonder. Most news anchors are rock stupid, so they may not even get the concept of a skewed sample. But then you get people like say Chuck Todd, who knows damned well the sample is meaningless, and doesn't bother mentioning it, treating it as a serious news item. Either he's (just to use him; plenty of others) politically biased, or is heavily invested in the integrity of the polls, so doesn't want to sow doubts.
Geraghty the Indispensible did have another fun observation from that poll. Even with a 17-point skew, Dubya's approval rating splits 50-49.
Re: Obama Popularity Surging (Among Democrats)
The poll's skewed even worse -- worse! -- than I thought.
Edited on May 11, 2011 at 7:52amMay '10
Re: Obama Popularity Surging (Among Democrats)
Chuck Todd is a prime example of Incestuous Media Syndrome. He has, as they say, skin in the game. His wife, Kristian, is a co-founder of Maverick Strategy and Mail, a Democrat and Progressive campaign consulting firm. Her bio on the site boasts about how she flipped the US Senate to the Democrats with her work on the Jim Webb campaign. As long as Democrat politicians are putting money in his family's pocket I wouldn't trust him as far as I could pick him up and throw him.
Here's how you take a survey.
May '10
Re: Obama Popularity Surging (Among Democrats)
EJHill
Here's how you take a survey. · May 11 at 7:47am
That Yes, Prime Minister clip is exactly why I think Rasmussen provides a better result with their touch-tone system. It simulates a voting booth, where you're not trying to impress anyone or avoid offense. You can say what you really think. I'd guess Obama overpolls by about 2 points, simply by being black. Wouldn't want the young lady on the phone to think you're a racist by opposing Obama.
Re: Obama Popularity Surging (Among Democrats)
No problem. Give them a false sense of complacency. All the more shocked they'll be when he loses.
Feb '11
Re: Obama Popularity Surging (Among Democrats)
To put the discrepancy in perspective, Gallup, in January of 2011, listed party affiliation as 31% Democrat, 29% Republican and 38% Independent. WaPo/ABC could have argued that Americans approved of Lemurian anti-terrorism policies if they had skewed their sample a little further.
Edited on May 11, 2011 at 8:20amOct '10
Re: Obama Popularity Surging (Among Democrats)
Did you imply that the AP, and by extension, the MSM is somehop biased in their position? How could you believe such a thing?
Apr '11
Re: Obama Popularity Surging (Among Democrats)
Another example of the media messing with poll numbers: Back when Obamacare hadn't been passed yet MSNBC published an article with the headline "Poll Shows Americans Evenly Split on Healthcare Bill" (or something along those lines). You had to actually open the article before they showed the result was actually 41% for / 57% opposed.