Obama Likely to Win?
Paul A. Rahe ·
October 19, 2012 at 9:12pm
Not according to Gallup, the most experienced of the pollsters. Not according to the latest RealClearPolitics map. Not according to Susquehanna in Pennsylvania. Not in Virginia. And not in Florida. And not if you judge things by favorability ratings.
And consider how the Obama campaign is flailing. Binders of women? Horrors! What will this demonic Mormon say next?
It will not be over until the fat lady sings, but the trend right now appears to be Romney's friend.
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Comments:
Mar '11
Re: Obama Likely to Win?
I think we're all getting a case of what a friend of mine calls the "twisties". How 'bout we call a moratorium for one day on any political discussions. Do you think we have the discipline to do that?
Nov '10
Re: Obama Likely to Win?
I had posted in response to Mollie's (much appreciated) daily polls post that we'd like to see some movement in the smaller states like Iowa and NH. Well, a newly published PPP (D) poll shows Romney +1 in New Hampshire and that pushes the RCP NH average to Romney +1.
Would still like to see more movement in Iowa, Nevada, and especially Ohio, but this NH boost shows the Romney momentum is carrying into smaller battlegrounds, not just VA, FL, and NC.
Dr. Rahe, you may be right, sir.
Nov '10
Re: Obama Likely to Win?
No (just being honest).
Jun '12
Re: Obama Likely to Win?
Thanks Paul, for the brighter analysis and from saving me from bleeding to death ( after banging my head against the wall all morning).
Dec '11
Re: Obama Likely to Win?
If you look at the current RCP map. If romney wins the states that he is currently trailing by 3% or less he wins 301-237.
Final answer regis.
Oct '10
Re: Obama Likely to Win?
The fat lady has not yet sung, but the dress rehearsal is underway.
Mar '11
Re: Obama Likely to Win?
Copperfield
No (just being honest). · 0 minutes ago
I'm afraid you're right. This is turning into the Final Four, where there's usually a drop-off in productivity; I wonder how much of a drop-off there'll be as we go through the next 18 days. I know it's down pretty heavily in this office.
Mar '11
Re: Obama Likely to Win?
I wish that I could bask in Rahe
But I must bet the other way
Oct '12
Re: Obama Likely to Win?
Would that Romney were ahead for reals real in either Penn or Ohio and I would be optimistic. Without that, alas, I feel we're going to have to fight for inch of electoral college ground we can get.
Obama's popularity has peaked, that's for sure, and it's not coming back. Even if he manages to get another term out of this.
Oct '10
Re: Obama Likely to Win?
Get real, Paul. (to coin a phrase from another thread, with tongue firmly planted in cheek)
Apr '11
Re: Obama Likely to Win?
Obama just retook the lead in the RCP national poll average. So now he is back ahead in the popular vote, and ahead in almost all of the important swing states.
This is a center-left country.
Edited on October 19, 2012 at 9:42pmOct '10
Re: Obama Likely to Win?
And by that, I mean it's over for Obama. Put a fork in him, he's done.
May '11
Re: Obama Likely to Win?
Concern trolls appear to have discovered Ricochet
This is not the time for assuredness or despair, this is the time to work hard.
I don't understand this need to make declarations about what will happen a few weeks from now, when it's out of our control.
We need less posts about why Romney will/won't win, and more posts about why voters should pick him.
May '11
Re: Obama Likely to Win?
Copperfield
No (just being honest). · 23 minutes ago
Nor should we. I agree that it's a very close race and it's all going to be about enthusiasm and get out the vote efforts. i believe Mitt will win because ALL the enthusiasm is on our side right now. There will be plenty of time for political breaks once we've gotten the job done.
Jul '12
Re: Obama Likely to Win?
You know I can do that easily.
Edited on October 19, 2012 at 9:58pmOct '10
Re: Obama Likely to Win?
More horrible news for Romney. O tempora, o mores!
May '12
Re: Obama Likely to Win?
The fat lady certainly has not yet sung but the guy in the funny viking hat with the horns is starting to think it's definitely time to beat the crowd and head for the stage door.
May '10
Re: Obama Likely to Win?
Ningrim: Concern trolls appear to have discovered Ricochet
This is not the time for assuredness or despair, this is the time to work hard.
I don't understand this need to make declarations about what will happen a few weeks from now, when it's out of our control.
We need less posts about why Romney will/won't win, and more posts about why voters should pick him. · 0 minutes ago
Agreed. I don't see the point of anyone but the campaigns paying attention to the polls. They are completely out of our control, have no meaning in the actual world, and lead only to either worry or overconfidence, neither of which is productive.
For regular constituents and voters, these polls are a perfect place to apply the Serenity Prayer.
Jul '12
Re: Obama Likely to Win?
I don't buy, for one second, that Obama is going to win. Most polls are all over the place. I think when you dig deeper and look at the favorability ratings (as Paul Rahe noted) and internals, Obama doesn't look like a winner at all. The style of his campaign today is not that of a winner. All I see is desperate stabs at Big Birds and "binders".
The Dem sample in some of the polls is ridiculous. I've seen polls with higher Dem samples than the '08 turnout. I see no reason to think that we can expect that kind of turnout.
Romney in a landslide.
Edited on October 19, 2012 at 10:05pmOct '10
Re: Obama Likely to Win?
RightinChicago: I don't buy, for one second, that Obama is going to win. Most polls are all over the place. I think when you dig deeper and look at the favorability ratings (as Paul Rahe noted) and internals, Obama doesn't look like a winner at all. The style of his campaign today is not that of a winner. All I see is flailing at Big Birds and "binders".
The Dem sample in some of the polls is ridiculous. I've seen polls with higher Dem samples than the '08 turnout. I see no reason to think that we can expect that knid of turnout.
Romney in a landslide. · 0 minutes ago
A-freakin'-men!