Obama-Clinton '12
Well, Robert Reich is predicting it, which means it's probably not going to happen.
But it would be a good move for Obama. Dump, somehow, Joe Biden, and replace him with Hillary Clinton. The 2012 presidential campaign is going to be a battle for the American moderate -- or for those who describe themselves that way. In order for the Republicans to win, they have to appeal to and convert former Obama voters. And for Obama to win, he has to retain his voters, especially in the center.
Everybody hates to hear this, of course, on our side, but Hillary Clinton is the most popular politician in America.
Read that sentence again. It's astonishing, I know, but it's true.
So put yourself in his shoes: you get to dump some dead weight, re-energize your re-election campaign, hitch your wagon to the most popular political figure in America, and appeal to the center. (Because whether you think she really is a centrist or not, a non-trivial number of Americans think she is. And to win, Obama needs to recapture the center.)
Here's how I'd do it: I'd do it in June.
I'd have Joe Biden resign, to take over at State. Then I'd appoint Hillary Clinton to the vice presidency. I'd need the approval of both houses to do it -- the Senate would be easy, under Harry Reid -- and it might be a tough thing for House Republicans to refuse to do, considering Hillary Clinton is the most popular politician in America.
For her, it's a can't-lose proposition: either way, she's positioned to walk into the nomination in 2016.
For the right, it's a little trickier.
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Jul '11
Re: Obama-Clinton '12
Easy choice if I'm Obama. Egads that felt awful, but anyway I could see this happening but more likely letting Biden out to pasture at Gaff Acres after his term is up and announcing Clinton come June. She still feels this was to be her presidency and the glass ceiling awaits 2016.
Do we get to hear her dodging sniper fire stories again? What an American hero.
Apr '11
Re: Obama-Clinton '12
Whoa, whoa, whoa Rob, Robert Reich predicts Hillary and Biden will swap jobs, making him the Secretary of State, a prospect just too deliciously hilarious to pass up. Except for the armageddon that would result.
May '11
Re: Obama-Clinton '12
Joel Goldstein argues over at Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball argues the opposite.
That aside, there are certain problems with your particular scenario, Rob.
1) Biden probably wouldn't resign for a job at State unless he was actually sure he'd be confirmed, which remains in doubt. Biden's not a popular figure, and he's made numerous diplomatic gaffes, making him relatively easy for the Republicans to oppose. It would also be difficult for Obama to argue for replacing Clinton with Biden, given his record.
2) Even if he knew he would be confirmed, I'm not sure Biden would take the job. Goldstein points out in his article that the vice presidency is one of the best positions for future presidential ambitions. Secretary of State, meanwhile, has been a non-starter since James Buchanan. Biden still harbors presidential ambitions for 2016, and I doubt he would give those up.
Sep '10
Re: Obama-Clinton '12
I predicted this here quite some time ago - I'm not blowing my own horn, it's a no-brainer. Look, The Democrats need someone to promote for 2016. Biden is a dead end and they know it. Biden going to State is a nice out for him. He's going to be given a choice: take the Sec State job or nothing. But Hillary is next in line no matter what. And she WILL have credibility and experience. I can't think of any single thing that will energize key Dem voting blocks than an Obama/Clinton ticket.
Are we ready for four more years of Obama and 4 or 8 years of Hillary?
Sep '10
Re: Obama-Clinton '12
Hillary is considered a centrist because she can be hawkish on foreign policy. From what I've been reading, Obama is considering more international gambits, not fewer, and Hillary could extend the 3 a.m. meme as cover for that. (And, you know, it might not be such a bad thing, to my mind, anyway.) She had a good rep as a senator, which I take to mean that she was a team player who could compromise, so perhaps like Cheney she could help get things through the Congress—like a budget (the implication being that the legislation would be less ideology and more workable compromise, perhaps even in the area of health care). They would be unbeatable, I'm afraid. Most people who call themselves independents aren't actually independents but muddled-thinking liberals who would love the visuals and easily fall into the receiving line.
May '10
Re: Obama-Clinton '12
She's old now, and the job at State has really taken a toll on her (she looks nothing like that photo). I think her time has passed.
Jun '10
Re: Obama-Clinton '12
Did EJ photoshop that picture of her? Why is her head at such an odd angle with her neck? Something is not right there. EJ, am I wrong about this? Love to get your opinion. Does she need to go to a chiropractor?
Dan, I kinda think that a former senator like Biden would have no trouble getting confirmed.
Rob, I think this might be a good idea for Obama. It would definitely energize his reelection.
Interesting how her big negatives of a few years ago are now gone. Must be nice to be a Democrat where rehabilitation is always possible when you own the media.
Sep '10
Re: Obama-Clinton '12
Well, I don't think she's all that old ... sixty-two, -three? But I agree she doesn't look good these days. (The preceding sentence was not meant to be uttered in a snarky tone. It would be unwise of me to disparage another woman's looks. But because her looks have been the subject of discussion for so long, her seeming not to care at all what she looks like is worth commenting on.) Ever since she hurt her arm or shoulder she has looked tired, even haggard, and I sometimes wonder if she's not still on pain medication. ... Obama might need to do something really big to get back into the limelight. His boomlet, as Powerline suggests (h/t Instapundit), seems to be leaking air, and it's only gonna get worse unless the economy enters into a suddenly miraculous period. ... It would serve Biden right for being such a putz.
Jun '10
Re: Obama-Clinton '12
She'll be 65 in 2012 and 69 in 2016.
Aug '10
Re: Obama-Clinton '12
I thought the VP didn't drive the ticket as much as the top slot? This may keep some Dems and indies from abandoning Obama but probably not enough to save his job.
Nov '10
Re: Obama-Clinton '12
A terrifying prospect:
Obama, who does not like the job of President, steps aside and invites Hillary to take his place, with the statement: "I know what I want for America. Hillary knows how to do it."
Obama is afraid, on the level of self-esteem, to lose the election. Better that he just quit the contest.
Mar '11
Re: Obama-Clinton '12
I don’t think an Obama-Clinton ticket would sail smoothly into the Oval Office. Before there was RomneyCare and ObamaCare there was HillaryCare, a proposal so unpopular that Bill couldn’t get it through a Democratic House and Senate. If much of Obama’s current political troubles stem from his attempt to take over the healthcare industry, it’s hard to see how Hillary helps with any voters other than those Obama was going to get again anyway. (Nobody ever said you can’t fool some of the people all of the time.)
May '10
Re: Obama-Clinton '12
Leslie, my comment about how she doesn't look good meant "unwell" as opposed to "unattractive.". The daughter of my daughter's academic advisor works for her, so I have seen a very recent pic. I suspect you are right about the meds. She seems exhausted, and her skin is thin and lined. But you never know. Some people just cannot walk away. But I stand by my feeling that her time is past.
Dec '11
Re: Obama-Clinton '12
She does seem tired and disinterested. I figure if she wanted to run for President, she would have resigned sometime in the past year to rest up, and either sign on for Veep, challenge O, or lay the ground work for 2016.
Oct '10
Re: Obama-Clinton '12
Obama Clinton looks unbeatable in 2012. Only Chance for Romney is to get Christie for VP. And hope that Ron Paul doesn't run as an independent.
Edited on December 30, 2011 at 6:27amDec '11
Re: Obama-Clinton '12
Is it a good move for Hillary? Why would she want to damage her popularity by being more tied to Obama? It's one thing to be in his cabinet, its another to have "Obama-Clinton '12" signs on display from coast to coast. Lastly, if they win and his second term is as bad (can be worse?) than his first, she is now tied to those policies and will have to defend Obama's record in way that she's not obligated to do she leaves the State Department. Assuming that she would want to run in '16, there's not a lot of upside for her by hitching her star to Obama next year.
Is Hillary the best pick for Obama in 2012? If he can get rid of Biden, would Hillary help him the most and/or be the person he would want to set up as the front-runner for 2016? Don't tell the Democrats I said this, but if I'm Obama, I'd pick Gabrielle Giffords for my running mate.
You heard it here first (I think).
Oct '10
Re: Obama-Clinton '12
gabby giffords? what if obama is incapacitated while in office? president giffords?
Dec '11
Re: Obama-Clinton '12
Fully agree, John. I'm assuming that she makes huge strides in her rehab and is able to campaign. She has some great things going for in that she's young, liberal, and nationally recognized. I think she would excite the Dems in a way Clinton won't.
Oct '10
Re: Obama-Clinton '12
Rob Long
Here's how I'd do it: I'd do it in June.
Before or After the Supreme Court decides on Obamacare? (in June too)
Jul '10
Re: Obama-Clinton '12
Do we really want Obama's campaign to be re-energized? Isn't it enough that he's on track to raise One Billion $$$? Obama might already have figured out that with Biden as VP, his life isn't in danger, but with Clinton as VP, the secret service will have to be on high alert.