Obama Can't Lose? Ask George H.W. Bush
With at least one poll showing President Obama’s approval rating reaching 60 percent, there’s a growing sense of inevitability on the Democratic side and a deepening sense of foreboding in GOP circles. Before the emotions of either camp get too far out of hand, I’d like to offer a bit of recent historical perspective. At very nearly the same point in George H.W. Bush’s first (and only) term, a well-prosecuted Gulf War had moved his approval ratings to just a tick under an incredible 90 percent. Things looked so hopeless for the Democrats, nearly all the so-called first-tier candidates announced they would not be running for the nomination, leaving the field open for virtual unknowns such as Bill Clinton.
At my first (and, yes, only) State Dinner at the White House just after the war, President Bush asked how my show was doing. I told him things were pretty good, but I wished we had his ratings. The President gave a wink and a nod and said, almost wistfully, “Don’t worry. Mine will go down a lot quicker than yours.” George Bush understood the transient nature of politics and had a sense of his own frailties. I can’t know for sure, but I certainly don’t get the feeling the current Chief Executive and those around him share those insights. So buck up, gang.
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Jan '11
Re: Obama Can't Lose? Ask George H.W. Bush
I say that dozens outweigh one.
The "invincibility of Obama" is the liberal attempt to rig the game. When the news media belittles the GOP field and promotes Obama as unbeatable, they're just trying to intimidate Republicans by threatening them with savage coverage.
Sep '10
Re: Obama Can't Lose? Ask George H.W. Bush
I for one don't believe this. In fact the more they crow about Obama's re-election chances the more weakness I see because they are quite desperate to create the appearance of invincibility.
The reaction to Obama's getting Bin Laden was very revealing. All that jubilation wasn't expressed because we are safer and we got a bad guy - it was relief from very scared Democrats desperate for good news. I couldn't believe how giddy they were and how they so quickly went political with this.
Our candidates are flawed for various reasons within our own squabbling, but Obama is far from invincible.
May '10
Re: Obama Can't Lose? Ask George H.W. Bush
I'd say it's ours to lose at this point. Primarily due to gas prices. His solution: tax oil. Genius.
The whacking of bin Laden does something very important for him, however. It removes the feeling of out of his league over his head incompetence that had been building for so long. However, I have every confidence that he'll be able to restore that image.
Jun '10
Re: Obama Can't Lose? Ask George H.W. Bush
I challenge anyone to predict the circumstances and issues that will be germane to an election still 18 months away. To paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, what about the "unknown unknowns?" The Middle East alone is a gigantic joker in the deck. What about Iran? Syria? And then there's the economy. Inflation? The price of gas at the pump? Unemployment? Conservatives would be well-advised to keep their powder dry. We have a long, long way to go.
Aug '10
Re: Obama Can't Lose? Ask George H.W. Bush
Ed Morrissey has the breakdown on the 60% poll you reference. The split Ed thinks is best is 35 Dem, 18 Repub, and 26 Indy and 20 Don't Know.
The money line, "It’s pretty easy to get Obama to 60% when Republicans are undersampled by almost half."
Yes, he ordered the Seals to get bin Ladin. But he had knowledge that this might happen 6 months ago (when he should have thought the "go" decision through), solid intel a week prior (dude, gotta think about that go-no go criteria) and he still dithered for 16 hours prior to giving the go-ahead (16 hours!! - somehow it must have sunk in that if he didn't give the "Go" order it would get out.)
The post-game endzone dancing will be enough to sink him from there. We just need more 'random citizens' to coax him into more self-praise.
Nov '10
Re: Obama Can't Lose? Ask George H.W. Bush
David Kahane's piece over at NRO is supposed to be tongue-in-cheek (I hope). However, it does ring true. The only real contenders on the GOP side are Ryan and Daniels. They are both accountants. Don't get me wrong, I love accountants. After all, I am one myself but we are notorious for our lack of charisma.
May '10
Re: Obama Can't Lose? Ask George H.W. Bush
Hey! Speak for yourself, pal.
Nov '10
Re: Obama Can't Lose? Ask George H.W. Bush
@Kennedy Smith,
While numbers give us accountants "thrills running up our legs", the majority of the population's eyes glaze over. After all, 50% of the population really does have an IQ under 100 and a large percentage of those above 100 are too smart for their own good (Dr Sowell's beloved "Intellectuals").
Apr '11
Re: Obama Can't Lose? Ask George H.W. Bush
I actually think Paul Ryan has some charisma. Maybe it's because of his youthful appearance more than his speaking style, but he seems to have a pretty good sense of humor and 'dumbs things down' enough for most people to understand his sometimes complex messages. Daniels, on the other hand, bores me to tears in just about every possible way.
Dec '10
Re: Obama Can't Lose? Ask George H.W. Bush
Republican candidates who purport to uphold our commonly shared principles lose elections when they betray them. When their ambition compromises integrity, when it advocates ends justify means, then their dishonor repulses the voters who adhere to principles without attracting the voters who don’t.
Leftists take for granted that campaign promises are nothing but a ruse, full of distracting props and soothing insincerities designed to deflect attention away from their collectivist intent. They mislead the public and coax the votes from the inattentive, apathetic, and naïve.
Assuming that reelection is for the incumbent to lose and the challenger to win, the Carter years have more in common with our current environment leading into the reelection campaign of POTUS 44 than the circumstances contributing to Bush 41’s reelection loss to candidates Perot and Clinton—but even those similarities end for so long as we have no candidate approaching the strength of Reagan.
Our historic first Islamic apostate president’s policies weaken the middle class in order to exacerbate greater dependency on Washington and legitimize government intrusion into economic activity (and inactivity). He causes panic and penury to win votes.
Who will confront and defeat his culture of corruption?
Nov '10
Re: Obama Can't Lose? Ask George H.W. Bush
My concern is that Obama's approval ratings never really crashed; his lowest scores (in 2010) came in at 42% with an 8% unsure. This suggests that among a significant percentage of the American populate, he can- regardless of the economic stats, social misery index, and foreign policy mishaps- do no wrong.
Feb '11
Re: Obama Can't Lose? Ask George H.W. Bush
Excellent post all the way through.
I wanted to add, though, that in 1980 there was a lot of debate over whether Reagan was even electable to begin with - no matter who was the opponent. His qualities as a president didn't become obvious until well after he was inaugurated. His qualities as a campaigner were usually dismissed - even by many on the right - as "good acting skills".
Obama may look to be hanging in there vs. "the field". At some point he is going to have to run against "a party nominee".
I agree wholeheartedly that this would be a poor time to nominate a lousy one, though.