Obama: A "Slight Favorite" to Win in November
Over at Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, a pretty sobering -- and clear-headed -- analysis of the November possibilities, with an additional data point folded in:
...my previous research shows that we can greatly improve the accuracy of our November forecast by including two additional predictors along with the incumbent’s approval rating: the growth rate of the economy during the first two quarters of the election year and the “time for change” factor, which indicates whether the incumbent’s party has held the White House for only one term or for two or more terms. Incumbents whose party has held the White House for two or more terms do significantly worse than those whose party has held the White House for only one term, even after taking into account the incumbent’s approval rating and the condition of the economy.
So if you factor in the May approval rating -- which is, apparently, a pretty good indicator for November's outcome -- and GDP, and the "time for change" data point, you get this:
So what does our improved forecasting model indicate about President Obama’s chances of winning a second term in the White House? That depends of course on the growth rate of the economy during the first two quarters of the year. The government’s initial estimate of real GDP growth during the first quarter of 2012 was about 2%, and growth during the second quarter is expected to be similar. If we assume that real GDP will grow by 2% during the first half of 2012, the full forecasting model predicts that Obama will end up with 51% of the major party vote in November, not much different from what the simple approval-based model predicted.
In other words: this is not going to be a cakewalk.
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Mar '11
Re: Obama: A "Slight Favorite" to Win in November
Romney just isn't a very good candidate. I think there's a good chance the GOP wins the Senate and still loses the POTUS. Prepare yourselves, and pray that no one on SCOTUS dies.
Sep '10
Re: Obama: A "Slight Favorite" to Win in November
I believe every election is different - and this one is especially different - and while polls and stats are somewhat useful, it really is like using your rear-view mirror to drive. Every once in a while you are going to crash. Just ask Nassim Nicholas Taleb
In this case, we have the first black (swan?) President, who ran on hope and change (and only provided the latter - for the worse) who seems to be running out of gas and has already blown his credibility, being propped-up by a fickle media who will turn on him (or at least try to salvage some of their credibility) once it becomes questionable if he's going to be re-elected (which is about now), who won against a chump of a candidate in 2008. And he's presided over the worst economy in modern times.
So, I really can't put too much stock in these numbers.
Jun '10
Re: Obama: A "Slight Favorite" to Win in November
I posted a couple of days ago that I was thrilled to be mildly (make that "tentatively") optimistic at this point, instead of in a state of complete despair.
It's going to be a slog, but I'm choosing to believe we can open up some time for Obama to write the third volume of what appears to be a series of autobiographies longer than the Aubrey-Maturin books (though of infinitely less quality).
Edited on May 24, 2012 at 7:55pmSep '10
Re: Obama: A "Slight Favorite" to Win in November
Less quality and probably more fiction but this bit of tid from Sabato reminds of the bogus stats quoted by Football announcers when they say this or that team hasn't won against this or that team on Monday night or in November or under a full moon...each team is different and there are too many variables but these people get paid to say things even when there is nothing to say...a predicition that it will be close is not too far out on a limb.
May '12
Re: Obama: A "Slight Favorite" to Win in November
Agree with Franco that this kind of analysis is like driving using the rear view mirror.
The conclusion is important - this election is going to be a slog and it will be hard, near impossible, to win with an anybody but Obama strategy.
We need somebody that stands for something and quick.
May '10
Re: Obama: A "Slight Favorite" to Win in November
Here's a quote for you regarding Mr. Sabato's ability to predict November's outcome this early:
Who said that? Larry Sabato in the NYT this past January.
Jun '10
Re: Obama: A "Slight Favorite" to Win in November
I don't imagine that Sabato's crystal ball has factored in the results of the democratic primaries in West Virginia, Arkansas, and Kentucky where 40% of Democrats wouldn't support their incumbent president.
Jul '11
Re: Obama: A "Slight Favorite" to Win in November
I have this sorted out much simpler. Eric Holder gets punished somehow=GOP win. Eric Holder walks=GOP loss.
Obama is doing his best to band aid the economy until November. His deceptive power is astounding and the complicit media will lap up false good news like a 4 year boy on the teat of an attachment deluded mommy.
Re: Obama: A "Slight Favorite" to Win in November
I keep hearing this repeated in the conservative press and I'm a little confused as to exactly why Republicans are crowing about it. These three states will go to Romney in the Electoral College under any circumstances short of a declaration that he'll be forcibly converting the nation to Mormonism on Inauguration Day.
I think the national press sometimes loses sight of the fact that there are still parts of the South where ideology doesn't track well with partisan affiliation. These voters are vestigial Democrats who -- in every other respect -- look, sound, and think like Republicans.
Sep '10
Re: Obama: A "Slight Favorite" to Win in November
#1 It's not enough for Romney/Repubs/conservatives to say over and over again that Obamanomics hasn't worked. We've got to say clearly and succinctly why our stuff has a chance of working. I sure haven't heard it yet.
#2 There's NOW no a reason why Romney and his advisers can't spend hours a day on debate prep.
#3 Romney supporters need to have a three tier approach to advertising. First, the Romney campaign itself should be positive; see #1 above. Second, Rove needs to rlentlessly attack the admin for stuff they've said and done. For example, remember the woman in the DOJ's who said the Civil Rights Division didn't exist to protect the civil rights of white people. The amount of boneheadedness like this beggars the imagination. Third, at the lowest level, there's the really down and dirty stuff like the Rev. Wright, Obama's made up girlfriends, his birth in Kenya, etc.
Sep '10
Re: Obama: A "Slight Favorite" to Win in November
The better rule is that incumbents usually win. Every subset of that rule seems too clever by half.
How many incumbents in the last 100 years fit the criteria for "party in power for 2 or more terms"?
I count seven.
Taft in 1912 (lost)
Hoover in 1932 (lost)
FDR in 1940 (won)
FDR in 1944 (won)
Truman in 1948 (won)
Ford in 1976 (lost)
HW Bush in 1992 (lost)
Taft and HW Bush lost in unusual 3 way races. Hoover lost because of a severe economic downturn.
The only one that can be argued to have been taken down by the weight of his predecessor was Ford.
Jun '10
Re: Obama: A "Slight Favorite" to Win in November
Troy Senik, Ed.
I keep hearing this repeated in the conservative press and I'm a little confused as to exactly why Republicans are crowing about it. These three states will go to Romney in the Electoral College under any circumstances short of a declaration that he'll be forcibly converting the nation to Mormonism on Inauguration Day.
Troy: Come on, we're not that heavy-handed. The secret plan is to give people a year to convert voluntarily, then we'll send the young guys in the white shirts and ties (and firearms) to get a little more, shall we say, "persuasive." You'll find our secret plan right next to "The Protocols of the Elders of Zion" at your local bookstore. To get an electronic copy, send me your email address written on a $20 bill and I'll send it to you.
Edited on May 24, 2012 at 8:44pmMay '11
Re: Obama: A "Slight Favorite" to Win in November
Since party affiliation is down in both parties, shoring up the base isn't as important as it once was. For the incumbent, not being challenged in their own primary was always a huge advantage . Every incumbent president since Eisenhower that wasn't challenged in their own primary won and generally won in a landslide. Every incumbent that was challenged in their own primary lost. i.e Ford, Carter, George H.W Bush. So Romney doesn't have history on his side. However, this trend could change because more people aren't affiliated with either party. It really depends on how conservative independent voters are feeling.
Mar '11
Re: Obama: A "Slight Favorite" to Win in November
DocJay: I have this sorted out much simpler. Eric Holder gets punished somehow=GOP win. Eric Holder walks=GOP loss.
Obama is doing his best to band aid the economy until November. His deceptive power is astounding and the complicit media will lap up false good news like a 4 year boy on the teat of an attachment deluded mommy. · 0 minutes ago
I hope they are prepared to go all the way with the investigations. We need to establish our narrative, not stagger around trying to correct Obama's.
The most recent example of what we can expect is the drivel out of MarketWatch that King Banaian exploded here yesterday. MSNBC was beside themselves with joy, crowing about how Obama was actually holding the line on spending. It will probably be flogged in the Sunday morning shows as well. Bandaids, smoke, mirrors, snake oil, and a compliant MSM may well carry the day.
Oct '10
Re: Obama: A "Slight Favorite" to Win in November
Blah blah blah. Obambi's losing 40% of the Dem vote to felons and blank lines. Lots of people who voted for him in 2008 won't vote or won't vote for him in 2012. NO ONE who voted for McCain in 2008 will vote for Obambi in 2012.
Romney wins with at least 325.
Dec '11
Re: Obama: A "Slight Favorite" to Win in November
Has Obama ever won against a serious candidate? Romney maybe weak but he is serious.
Re: Obama: A "Slight Favorite" to Win in November
Of course this isn't going to be a cakewalk. I'm actually surprised Sabato puts it as close as this.
To MBFan's point above -- the only elected incumbents in my lifetime who've lost have been Carter and Bush. In each case the incumbent's party was far from enthusiastic, and there was a serious challenge to the incumbent other than just the main opposition candidate (Kennedy, Perot). None of that applies today.
I don't have the data at my fingertips, but something like 40-45% of the electorate today is made up of core, overwhelmingly Democratic constituencies -- blacks, non-Cuban Hispanics, young single women, union households, urban/academic upscales.... Absent dissension in those ranks -- and there is none today -- the Dem doesn't need to carry all that many independents in order to win.
That this is immensely depressing doesn't make it any less true.
May '12
Re: Obama: A "Slight Favorite" to Win in November
The 2012 presidential election in 1 sentence. ABO = no change in the white house.
Jun '10
Re: Obama: A "Slight Favorite" to Win in November
Troy Senik, Ed.
I keep hearing this repeated in the conservative press and I'm a little confused as to exactly why Republicans are crowing about it. These three states will go to Romney in the Electoral College . . . .
I think the national press sometimes loses sight of the fact that there are still parts of the South where ideology doesn't track well with partisan affiliation. These voters are vestigial Democrats who look, sound, and think like Republicans. · 45 minutes ago
Do you suppose Democrats are defecting only in the south? It will take only a few percentage points in swing states like Ohio and Florida, and perhaps even Pennsylvania, to throw this election to Romney. How many blacks will stay home because of the president's stand on gay marriage? Again, it will take only a few percentage points. How much of the base can Obama afford to lose and still win the election? By my reckoning, not much.
Jun '10
Re: Obama: A "Slight Favorite" to Win in November
I may be mis-remembering, but I think Sabato had predicted most accurately the Congressional result numbers in '08 (or was it '10?), so he ain't no hack.
I think, though, this is going to be something of a reverse turnout election. Usually, a party tries to get the unmotivated out to vote. This time I think the parties are looking to turn out that part of the base who've actively decided to stay home.
Also, these predictions are good until...anything big. Greece drops out of the EU? The euro collapses? Europe burns? The Black Bloc around the world takes some incident as a worldwide lit fuse? The US credit rating is downgraded again? There are enough major events that are more than just "possible" that would be like like doing a cannonball in a kiddie pool politically.
Edited on May 24, 2012 at 9:55pm