November Predictions: Dems Up in House; Reps Up in Senate
A relatively simple model incorporating four predictors — the number of seats the Republican Party holds going into an election, whether it is a presidential or midterm election year, the net approval rating of the incumbent president, and the standing of the parties on the generic congressional ballot — can be used to forecast the seat swing in House and Senate elections well before Election Day. The model accurately predicted the Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives and Senate in 2006 and the Republican takeover of the House in 2010...
Based on the most recent polling results, which show a near tie on the generic ballot and a net presidential approval (approval minus disapproval) of close to zero, the House forecasting model predicts a very small Democratic seat gain (2-3 seats) in the House but not nearly the 25 seats Democrats would need to take back control of the House. On the other hand, the Senate forecasting model gives Republicans a good chance to regain control of the Senate with an expected pickup of 6-7 seats. That is due almost entirely to the fact that Republicans are defending only 10 Senate seats this year while Democrats are defending 23 seats.
Of course, it's borderline insane to make any confident calls about November. There is still lots of time for the usual stuff to happen, turning that 2 to 3 seat Dem gain into a 30 seat gain, and that 6 to 7 seat gain for the Reps in the Senate into a standstill.
But for now, interesting, no?