Nothing Inevitable About American Decline
Type the words “Decline of America” into Google and it produces 103 million results. Authors, classical historians, international economists, European allies, Chinese generals, and the wider blogosphere pronounce and repeat the idea. Some welcome it, others express deep concern, but -- contrary to a wave of fashionable pessimism at home and abroad -- there is nothing inevitable about American decline.
The U.S. remains a populous, rich, and powerful country with a unique capacity for innovation and renewal. Despite the lagging recovery and stubbornly high level of unemployment, our economy remains twice the size of China’s (in terms of GDP at market exchange rates – the preferred indicator for international comparisons according to the IMF). We hold major advantages in the scale of our financial markets, in scientific research and technology, and in competitiveness.
America’s armed forces, and military power projection are unmatched by any other actor. Despite sustaining 100,000 troops in Afghanistan, the cost of the defense budget, at 4.7% of GDP, remains well below the proportion during any of the Cold War decades.
The U.S. retains a unique attractiveness for talented immigrants. It has a favorable
birthrate, a growing population (the world’s third largest), and a demographic balance better not only than those of Europe, Russia, or Japan, but even of China, which will grow old before it gets rich. And not to be forgotten are America’s immense natural resources, including
an extraordinary renaissance in the production and recoverable reserves of oil and natural gas.
Alexis de Tocqueville wrote in his 1830s work, Democracy in America, that the virtue of Americans lay not in being more enlightened than others, “but in being able to repair the faults they commit.” These words point to a fundamental characteristic of the United States – its unique flexibility and adaptability. Throughout its history, the country has repeatedly faced and overcome daunting challenges. Whether America will avoid serious decline is not a question of whether we can afford to do so. Our future is a matter of the choices we make, of policy, leadership and will.
- Comment (30)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (3)
- Pages:
- 1
- 2
Comments:
May '12
Re: Nothing Inevitable About American Decline
Welcome to Ricochet Dr. Lieber.
Outstanding article. I agree, our decline is not inevitable and we are truly Blessed with the resources and virtue to grow and prosper. I think one challenge holding us back is a general failure to understand the magnitude of the challenges we face - specifically our national debt.
I have no doubt that once we admit the problem we will solve it in bold fashion.
Dec '10
Re: Nothing Inevitable About American Decline
Professor, with the welfare state threatening to consume our national budget, food stamp usage soaring, disabilities growing faster than jobs, and debt/deficits as far as the eye can see (or the CBO can calculate), what evidence exists that we are still a people willing and capable of repairing these faults? Where does that American character still shine?
Apr '11
Re: Nothing Inevitable About American Decline
Unfortunately, that is the unanswerable question. Decline isn't measured by statistics, but by the loss of faith in our civic traditions and institutions.
Jun '10
Re: Nothing Inevitable About American Decline
Does it worry you that the average American is much less self-reliant than they were even fifty or sixty years ago? As recently as the 1950s, I think most people still had some family tradition of farm life, either in America or in the "old country." Even if you didn't know how to milk a cow or plant a crop, Grandpa did. Even if you didn't know how to knit a sweater or patch up a pair of pants, Grandma did. They knew, because if they didn't do it, it didn't get done. Those were people that over the years learned to like government help, but they didn't need government help. I'm afraid we're turning into a nation of people that both like it AND need it.
Dec '10
Re: Nothing Inevitable About American Decline
billy
Unfortunately, that is the unanswerable question. Decline isn't measured by statistics, but by the loss of faith in our civic traditions and institutions. · 0 minutes ago
I'd say the statistics argue strongly that such a loss of faith has occurred. Government is quickly becoming the only civic institution we have.
Re: Nothing Inevitable About American Decline
Decisive action to cope with America's problems of national debt, deficit, and entitlements is critical. Solutions and reforms are feasible, but the longer we wait, the more difficult they become. Winston Churchill once said that, "Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities.” There are reasons for cautious optimism about our ability to tackle these problems, but this requires leadership and resolve that are not yet evident.
Jul '12
Re: Nothing Inevitable About American Decline
Can we go forward as a entitlement society? I think the market will correct that but, as divided as we are, could we emerge whole from a financial collapse?
Can we go forward with the family unit in such bad shape? If not, how to repair that?
Is a country that aborts unwanted children worth saving?
Thanks.
May '10
Re: Nothing Inevitable About American Decline
When my grandma was diagnosed with emphysema, she quit smoking. A lot of good it did her at that point.
America's looking pretty weak, and still smoking.
It's nice to think we always have a choice. But sometimes past choices make present choices purely symbolic.
Edited on August 6, 2012 at 10:17pmJan '11
Re: Nothing Inevitable About American Decline
Since the question isn't whether we're capable of success (we are), the only real question is ... what's holding us back?
The Left argues that it's the inequality of society that's holding us back. They claim that the rich are taking away resources from the middle class.
This Sunday on ABC This Week with George Stephanopoulos, Van Jones tried to "explain" the economy to Ann Coulter.
So, they explain a stagnant economy by arguing that entrepreneurs are waiting for consumers to fill empty coffers so they could then invest and expand.
Entrepreneurs have plenty of money. We have plenty of spending. Spending isn't the problem. Investors aren't investing because the government has made investment too risky. When the Left sees investors holding on to money, they stomp their feet and scream "greed!" Then, hoping to shake the cash free, they increase taxes - - which, of course, makes investors even more scared.
Feb '10
Re: Nothing Inevitable About American Decline
The layers and layers of unaccountable government bureaucracy that have accumulated make us far less flexible than in the past. Add to that a general decline in the character and morals of our people, which is (was) our true strength, and I'm not sure if there's enough cause for optimism that it can be fixed.
May '10
Re: Nothing Inevitable About American Decline
I would like to see Romney address this pessimism about America in his convention speech. It was one of Reagan's great strength. If Mitt can do a believable sales job, I think he wins. The US is thirsty for that kind of leadership. It's not a solution...but it's a start.
Jun '10
Re: Nothing Inevitable About American Decline
Count me in with those concerned about the erosion of civic virtue in our body politic. How do you restore a sense of civic duty once decadence and dependence infect a populace? I don't think it can be done without resulting in significant civil disorder. If we do what needs to be done, it's going to result in riots. Greece shows us the way ahead.
Dec '10
Re: Nothing Inevitable About American Decline
I will throw this bit of optimism out there: Romney could behave as president exactly as he behaved as a business leader. He could institute the necessary cuts and downsizing of the enterprise (the government, not the nation) that will put us on a more sound footing fiscally. Of course, all this is contingent on the people electing a congress willing to follow his lead, and that's where my pessimism creeps back in.
Jun '10
Re: Nothing Inevitable About American Decline
Why didn't we have riots everywhere in the 1930s? It was a lot worse than Greece is today. We had some bank robbers, and plenty of criminal scams, but it never devolved into complete chaos, because we Americans--the vast majority--had the character that comes from religious faith. No other type of character formation does the job. Take that away, and Greece might be the model.
Jun '10
Re: Nothing Inevitable About American Decline
Mel Foil
Why didn't we have riots everywhere in the 1930s? It was a lot worse than Greece is today. We had some bank robbers, and plenty of criminal scams, but it never devolved into complete chaos, because we Americans--the vast majority--had the character that comes from religious faith. No other type of character formation does the job. Take that away, and Greece might be the model. · 26 minutes ago
The liberal culture that infects our cities is increasingly hedonistic and atheistic. It's for this reason I think our urban areas are in big trouble. Our rural areas (aka red districts) still retain traditional values including religious faith. But then, the strength of any empire resides in the the provinces, right?
Apr '11
Re: Nothing Inevitable About American Decline
The U.S is indeed a magnet for "talented immigrants." Unfortunately, it is also a magnet for untalented immigrants as well, and that is where most of our population growth and relatively high fertility rates are coming from (and why is a growing population a good thing?Why will we be better off with 400 million than 300 million people?).
To put it bluntly, we need middle-class bourgeois white people to start having more babies, not third-world immigrants. It may be an ugly thought, but its true.
Edited on August 7, 2012 at 12:11amApr '11
Re: Nothing Inevitable About American Decline
If we do see an American revival, it will happen on the sate, not federal, level. Washington's political culture is broken beyond repair I'm afraid.
Mar '11
Re: Nothing Inevitable About American Decline
That would be the guy whose bust was removed from the Oval Office, right?
When, or if, that bust returns I will be more optimistic about the future of the US.
Apr '11
Re: Nothing Inevitable About American Decline
~Paules
The liberal culture that infects our cities is increasingly hedonistic and atheistic. It's for this reason I think our urban areas are in big trouble. Our rural areas (aka red districts) still retain traditional values including religious faith. But then, the strength of any empire resides in the the provinces, right? · 24 minutes ago
The sectors of the population that are practicing the most upright, traditional lifestyles (married, kids born in wedlock, 1950's family values) are the most "atheistic" part of the population -white college educated professionals (who usually vote Democrat). The religious rural population that you exalt are the ones who are, in Charles Murray's phrase, "coming apart" (and who usually vote Republican).
May '12
Re: Nothing Inevitable About American Decline
Mel Foil
Why didn't we have riots everywhere in the 1930s? It was a lot worse than Greece is today. We had some bank robbers, and plenty of criminal scams, but it never devolved into complete chaos, because we Americans--the vast majority--had the character that comes from religious faith. No other type of character formation does the job. Take that away, and Greece might be the model. · 1 hour ago
Another key difference is that America circa 1930 was not dependent on a centralized government for livelihood. In the 1930's private sector opportunity disappeared for all. America 2012 has too many transfer payment recipients. When the lights come on the party is over, the decline of society will be evident. And yes, I agree with Faith as virtue.