Newt?
Peter Robinson ·
March 14, 2012 at 6:53am
From the New York Times wrap-up of today's primaries in Alabama and Mississippi:
The biggest question hanging over the Republican contest is whether Mr. Gingrich will stay in the race.
Should he?
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Comments:
May '11
Re: Newt?
Does Newt withdraw from the winner-take all contests but stay in the proportional contests (at least those where he is likely to meet the threshold)?
That seems to be the best chance to torpedo Romney if:
1) Newt is unlikely to win a winner-take all; and
2) Newt draws more supporters away from Santorum than Romney (but not exclusively from Santorum).
Jun '10
Re: Newt?
If Newt gets out in the next few days I believe he has a chance to be Secretary of State (if Bolton isn't offered the job first). If he takes his campaign and dwindling funds to the convention he diminishes his chances of serving in some capacity in a Romney administration particularly if he continues to attack Romney rather than Obama on the stump. After Illinois, California and New York it's difficult to see how the math does not favor Romney.
Even though the job is rather junior just imagining Newt as White House Press Secretary, even for a day, would be most entertaining.
Jun '10
Re: Newt?
Peter - Why isn't this post about Ron Paul getting out?
Edited on March 14, 2012 at 3:43pmJan '11
Re: Newt?
Nobody new is entering the race, there will be no Superman. Santorum would lose terribly in a general election. I used to get mad at people saying that they wouldn't vote for someone because s/he wasn't conservative enough. However, Santorum is too socially conservative, and many would stay home rather than vote for him - and I wouldn't blame them. Newt vs Romney is fine, because Newt speaks well, but I hope it would end in a coronation for Romney. I mean really, what are people looking for? Romney has a spotless personal life. He has experience. He sometimes goes way off message and is a bit cringeworthy on occasion, but he's better than the rest.
Jan '11
Re: Newt?
This is what I find so depressing about politics and voting behavior: that it takes money to win the hearts/minds of voters. Imagine if a true founding-father type politician (a classical liberal) were to just say, "Keep your money! Help my campaign by simply spreading the word -- the word that I want to limit the size and scope of government. You really want to help me, pool together and make a campaign commercial on my behalf and give testimonials about how and why you think I'll govern, putting liberty at the forefront and actively championing the repeal of stupid legislation."
If this type of campaign by a true liberty-extolling leader cannot win then it is already too late for this country. [/pessimism off]
May '11
Re: Newt?
Not to defend Santorum, but most self-proclaimed moderates are leftists in denial. It makes them feel incredibly morally superior to claim that they are moderates who would have voted Republican if the Republican candidate was not an extremist. But, when push comes to shove, they will use any pretext (my favorite word when it comes to describing leftist motivations) to not vote Republican no matter how liberal the nominee.
Jan '11
Re: Newt?
Lowcountryjoe, I agree, it's quite disappointing that great ideas don't sell themselves. If T Pawlenty had more money, maybe he'd be the Santorum right now, and perhaps a little more accepted by a broader swath of the population. And ctlaw, I agree, good point.
Aug '11
Re: Newt?
Erik Larsen:
Santorum would lose terribly in a general election.
Depends on the week. Some weeks the polling averages suggest he would (and so would Mitt). Others, that both Mitt and Santorum have a good chance of beating Obama. I don't think polls relating to the general election will mean much until after the nominee is determined. But I think if you look at Obama's approval numbers, he has a lot of work ahead if he wants to get back all the support he's been losing.
Dec '10
Re: Newt?
If Newt wants to defeat Romney, he's got to get out now. If he waits until Louisiana, he will just split the delegates three ways again, rather than give Santorum a chance to win a majority and take most of them. To be nominated at the convention, you need to have won five states. Newt has two and Louisiana, Arkansas, and Texas seem to be his best chance at getting five. I suspect that he'll quit after Louisiana, but Romney will have extended his lead by then and it will be too late to stop him from reaching the magic number (honestly, I think it is already too late, but it's going to be hard to convince candidates who have put so much time and effort into this that their time is up).
Aug '11
Re: Newt?
Brian Watt
Even though the job is rather junior just imagining Newt as White House Press Secretary, even for a day, would be most entertaining.
Remember when the President ducked out a press conference because Michelle was tapping her foot and late for her dinner party? He invited Bill Clinton to fill in for him, and the press LOVED it.
I think they'd be just as keen to talk to Newt.
Though my prediction is that Newt drops out, commits his delegates to Rick Santorum, and in exchange is offered the Veep position.
(Though I would prefer Newt become president over any of them.)
Edited on March 14, 2012 at 4:14pmAug '10
Re: Newt?
Yes.
Because I still think he's awesome.
And that's the only endorsement that should matter.
Re: Newt?
Help me out folks, please. Didn't we get McCain in 2008 as a result of the more conservative vote being split amongst other more conservative alternatives? Isn't that happening this time around as well? With the conservative vote split between two primary alternatives, doesn't Romney benefit even as Bill Clinton benefitted from Ross Perot's dogmatic presence?
Apr '11
Re: Newt?
CTLaw has the right idea. In proportional states, newt + Rick get more delegates than Rick alone. In WTA states, dropping out is better. If Newt had dropped out at the beginning, Mitt would have had about ten more delegates going into MS/AL. Now, though almost all remaining states are modified proportional allocation states and Gingrich helps Romney by staying in. Last night, for instance, Rommey would have gotten far fewer delegates if Newt wasn't keeping Rick below 50% in all districts. Newt is doing this because he has a ridiculous fantasy about being chosen on the tenth ballot by people who hate him.
May '11
Re: Newt?
That was more an artifact of the 2008 emphasis on winner-take-all contests, combined with name recognition and other psychological subtleties.
McCain had a decent share of the conservative vote. Neither Romney, nor Rudy were conservatives.
The 2012 switch toward proportional contests totally changes things.
Feb '12
Re: Newt?
Mitt's a businessman, so I'll put this in terms he can understand: Mitt hasn't yet closed the sale. We're the potential customers, and we're not sure about the product or the eventual long-term costs. We have doubts and concerns and we want to avoid buyers' remorse. Mitt has yet to convince us of his value proposition. I know what's in it for Mitt, but What's In It For ME?
Edited on March 14, 2012 at 11:21pmMar '11
Re: Newt?
In the words of other southerners... "Surrender, Hell!"
Mar '11
Re: Newt?
DrewInWisconsin
Erik Larsen:
Santorum would lose terribly in a general election.
Depends on the week.
Depends on the economy. If the economy gets much better, Obama wins, period. If the economy continues to be bad, Vermin Supreme could beat him.
Bottom line: vote for who you want, not for who you think other people will vote for.
Apr '11
Re: Newt?
KC Mulville:
Gingrich didn't win last night, but he wasn't that far behind. He was 2% behind Santorum. Pundits argue that this was his "backyard" and he should have done better, but that strikes me as an insider canard that really doesn't work. After all, if he loses his home state, that's one thing, because he's run there before ... but if he loses in a state where he hasn't run, that doesn't tell very much.
You're right that geography doesn't always mean that a candidate wins near the state he held office in. Pennsylvania's neighbors, for instance, are generally Mitt states. Still, for Newt to do well, he's going to need to win somewhere. Can you think of anywhere he's favored that's not bordering Georgia? Was your answer Louisiana? And that's the issue. What Newt does now is unclear, but it is very clear that the answer is not "win states".
Oct '11
Re: Newt?
Yes, long enough to school Rick Santorum on immigration. Newt's idea of local "draft-board type" reviews for those who have worked and striven to assimilate - or something very much like it - is critical. Not even Rubio will be able to overcome a adamantine "send 'em back" position at the top of the ticket.
Dec '11
Re: Newt?
Dave Carter:
With the conservative vote split between two primary alternatives, doesn't Romney benefit even as Bill Clinton benefitted from Ross Perot's dogmatic presence?
Yes indeed, Dave, and as an AAR (All About Romney), I'm delighted! Newt Gingrich is my best friend.