Newt and Mitt, Stocks and Bonds
Over a drink yesterday evening, yours truly, Rob Long and several friends, including Charles Kesler, editor of the Claremont Review of Books and a legendary professor at Claremont McKenna, spent about 90 minutes trying to decide whether we preferred Newt or Mitt. (We had all just attended the annual dinner of the Pacific Research Institute in San Francisco, happily settling ourselves, after dinner, in the bar just off the lobby of the Ritz-Carlton Hotel.) Newt versus Mitt, Mitt versus Newt. We couldn't decide. (At least I couldn't.)
Summing up, Charles observed that Newt and Mitt presented a neat case study in risk/reward analysis.
Whereas Newt might at almost any moment say or do something unbalanced, sinking his campaign (the risk), as president he would prove much more likely than Mitt to govern as a true conservative, articulating a compelling and constitutional vision while enacting radical reforms (the reward). Mitt, of course, presents just the opposite profile: He's unlikely to make a mistake during the campaign (the risk, such as it is), but just as unlikely to govern as a true conservative (the reward, or, rather, the lack thereof).
Although my business school education never really took--after getting my MBA I tried business for all of a year before going right back to writing--as I listened to Charles a dim memory of a long-ago finance class began to stir. "I've got it!" I suddenly cried. "Newt's a stock and Mitt's a bond!"
Charles looked at me for a moment, then said simply, "Well put."
I'm still glowing.
Oh, yes. Rob. He merely shook his head, chuckling.
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Sep '11
Re: Newt and Mitt, Stocks and Bonds
So, what's the underlying risk that Mitt ends up ideologically bankrupt like Greece? Or that Newt's corporate governance is AWOL, and by that I mean, can he keep focused and from making any blunders?
To continue with the metaphor, I think Newt responds to incentives just like a firm. Before his campaign, Newt was on the speaking circuit and in think-tanks, where nuance, and provocative pragmatism are very highly valued. As he transitioned into his campaign, he had to adjust his business model to demand. Demand for solid, articulate conservatism. Naturally, there were bumps in that transition. Those blunders have slowed since and haven't really cropped up again. I think it will stay that way - Newt does what's best for Newt. Stirring up trouble isn't in his interest now. During a Gingrich presidency, our task would be to keep up the demand for that articulated conservatism.
Mitt, on the other hand, is low-risk and fixed rate, and if events in his presidency demand that we cash in early on having a steadfast conservative in office, there's no guarantee but his word that he'll pay out - that's sovereign individual debt.
Edited on December 2, 2011 at 8:13amJun '10
Re: Newt and Mitt, Stocks and Bonds
And Hugh Hefner is a dealer in gilt-edged, negotiable blonds.
Oct '11
Re: Newt and Mitt, Stocks and Bonds
If Romney's a Bond, then Gingrich is a Blofeld.
"Representative Bachmann proposes two fences on the border. Well I've got a better idea. An industrial economy that can make a ring out of diamonds for Tiffany's, a great store, should have no problem making a laser out of diamonds. And the same country that put a man on the moon can surely put a laser in orbit around the moon. And if UPS can track a package to your doorstep, then I don't see why American ingenuity couldn't target that laser to hit violent illegals who disrespect our laws and cause havoc in our communities. It's an American solution, and the kind that will guarantee this country's greatness through the 21st century."
Edited on December 2, 2011 at 11:39amRe: Newt and Mitt, Stocks and Bonds
Newt Gingrich supported all of the following during the Bush years:
TARP
Medicare Part D
No Child Left Behind
Comprehensive immigration reform
The Harriet Miers nomination
My impression was that conservatives were very angry about all those things and determined to never again back he sort of man who would favor them. Yet here we are. He is surging.
Newt isn't a stock or a bond, he's a credit default swap: everyone forgets about him until the whole system is imploding due to foolish-in-hindsight investments in overvalued quantities. And he doesn't save the system so much as reveal its fundamental corruption.
Mar '11
Re: Newt and Mitt, Stocks and Bonds
If Newt has ten new ideas, one will be brilliant, two will be interesting, four will be meh, two will be deeply weird, and one will be teh stoopid. Your mileage may vary on the first three and the last three. About 60% of the ideas will be utterly impractical. These are independent variables. The next ten ideas will contradict some or all of the previous ten.
If Romney has ten new ideas, that would make a total of eleven - lifetime. Mitt is kind of like Richard Nixon...all the animal magnetism, with perhaps a little bit less warmth and charm.
Aug '10
Re: Newt and Mitt, Stocks and Bonds
Having been traded on the Massachusetts Exchange , Romney is a very dubious commodity . Can anyone recall any conservatives from Mass. ? Cranbrook and Harvard do not produce radical reformers . Anyone sharing a birthday with James Taylor and Liza Minnelli might be ill-starred ( I know because it's my birthday too ).
Jan '11
Re: Newt and Mitt, Stocks and Bonds
So, were Cain and Perry residential & commercial properties while Santorum the money market fund?
Re: Newt and Mitt, Stocks and Bonds
Flippy vs Floppy.
While I see two flawed conservative candidates, I note that in 1980 I probably would have called Reagan a flawed conservative candidate for passing an abortion law as governor of California (but I was too busy learning to drive that year to care).
Since he started as a Democrat, Reagan is proof that a guy can continue to perfect himself into a reliable conservative right through the time he becomes President.
I would love, LOVE! to see Newt vs Obama in debates. But a talking contest isn't governing.
Newt carries with him a despise by Democrats, liberal media and pop culture (Saturday Night Live) from when he was Speaker that Mitt doesn't suffer.
While I think Newt is politically smarter, I give Mitt a particularly interesting advantage:
Mitt is the "The Wolf" from Pulp Fiction. "Winston Wolf. I solve problems."
Mitt has a history fixing troubled organizations. He did it in business. He did it with the Olympic Committee. USA is a troubled asset, or if you will, "a car with a body minus a head."
Mitt is The Wolf (now if we can just give him the swagger):
(LANGUAGE ALERT)
Aug '10
Re: Newt and Mitt, Stocks and Bonds
In your conversations, Peter, did the fact that Newt has been sucking off the government teat for the past 30 years come up? In light of the tremendous corruption uncovered in DC by Peter Schwiezer and others and the fact that Newt has been making millions selling his rolodex connections, aka lobbying, did it give any of you pause that Newt is part of the problem and not the solution?
If by governing as a conservative Charles means Newt will continue the crony capitalism which has become so entrenched in DC and at which Newt has become so adept than I agree with him.
Jun '10
Re: Newt and Mitt, Stocks and Bonds
Mitt is a convertible bond that may change to a stock at a future date.
Dec '10
Re: Newt and Mitt, Stocks and Bonds
It's a perfect analogy. What with all the local and federal debt accumulated, it isn't just Greek bonds which are considered a risky investment. This is why we're balking at choosing Mitt. Big changes are needed before we feel safe with bonds again.
One other observation about the two. Newt isn't trying to convince us he's perfect. Mitt is. We know Gingrich is flawed. We have an expectation that he'll overstep at some point. Mitt has himself completely boxed in.
The contrast could be another manifestation of Newt's political intelligence. It might even be a type of wisdom. Maybe even an unexpected humility? Nah. Now I've overstepped.
Dec '10
Re: Newt and Mitt, Stocks and Bonds
Tommy De Seno:
I could never see Romney driving a car like that, being that smoothe with women, or hosing down gangsters on a suburban lawn. I don't think the analogy fits.
Side thought: is it time to reconsider another one of the conservatives in the race?
Re: Newt and Mitt, Stocks and Bonds
The King Prawn: Tommy De Seno:
I could never see Romney driving a car like that, being that smoothe with women, or hosing down gangsters on a suburban lawn. I don't think the analogy fits.
Side thought: is it time to reconsider another one of the conservatives in the race? · Dec 2 at 5:41am
That's why I said we need to teach Mitt the swagger. But there is no denying that like the Wolf, Mitt solves problems.
Is there?
Jun '10
Re: Newt and Mitt, Stocks and Bonds
Jim Geraghty has been replaying some golden oldies of Newt. Bottom line: the man's ideas are like the veritable pile of horse manure (with, to be fair, the occasional pony in there). We're talking some serious cognitive dissonance here (though I'm convinced there are some parts of Newt's brain that've never been introduced to each other). The golden oldies also demonstrate that Newt has never been a true conservative: he's an idea man (many of which are not on conservative charts) and occasionally a deal-maker.
As an early skeptic, I've come around to Mitt. I believe he'll govern more conservatively than his flip-floppy record would indicate. If there are any skeletons in his closet they would have been found. Yes, he's a manager, but look what four years of being governed by a managerially incompetent ideologue have brought us. And he has the gravitas to stare-down a Sarkozy when he starts dissing Bibi. He'll be the better president, and the better conservative.
Finally, moral character still matters to me. Mitt by a knock-out on that one.
Double finally: Mitt and Peter have similar hair. QED
Edited on December 2, 2011 at 2:50pmDec '10
Re: Newt and Mitt, Stocks and Bonds
Tommy De Seno
That's why I said we need to teach Mitt the swagger. But there is no denying that like the Wolf, Mitt solves problems.
Is there? · Dec 2 at 5:43am
Mitt strikes me as more of the super nerd that fixes your computer when it gets a nasty virus. The Wolf was The Wolf not because of what he did but because of who he was. What he did flowed from that. With Mitt it is exactly backwards. This may be the rabbitiest rabbit trail yet...
Dec '10
Re: Newt and Mitt, Stocks and Bonds
I have to disagree. Peter's hair doesn't carry any inherent meaning; Mitt's always does. In '08 it said, "look at how perfect I am." Now with the few deliberately stray hairs in the front say, "I'm a regular guy." I think that fact is part of what drives people crazy about him.
Jan '11
Re: Newt and Mitt, Stocks and Bonds
I'm not sold on anyone yet. Newt sounds like the kind of guy I'd like to see as a leader. He challenges assumptions in conventional thinking, which forces subordinates to explain themselves. Good CEOs do that, and the result is usually an effective group of people who don't get settled into group-think, which is this country's most common flaw in every level of management.
That's great as a manager, in an environment in which he's surrounded by others. When he's on his own, unleashed from the counter-criticisms of others, he has no discipline whatsoever.Newt is great, but he needs to be among people who can keep him in line. He needs to be constantly monitored with the same critical eye that he brings to others.
Newt is less likely to fall into group think. Romney strikes me as a guy who's absolutely positively going to create a group-think in the Oval Office.
Jul '10
Re: Newt and Mitt, Stocks and Bonds
Tommy De Seno
The King Prawn: Tommy De Seno:
I could never see Romney driving a car like that, being that smoothe with women, or hosing down gangsters on a suburban lawn. I don't think the analogy fits.
Side thought: is it time to reconsider another one of the conservatives in the race? · Dec 2 at 5:41am
That's why I said we need to teach Mitt the swagger. But there is no denying that like the Wolf, Mitt solves problems.
Is there? · Dec 2 at 5:43am
I don't want a 'problem solver' as the POTUS. That starts with the liberal/leftist assumption that government is there to solve the problem. I want the next POTUS to undo liberal fascism. That doesn't take a Olympic Committee Organizer, which sounds somewhat like "Community Organizer." It takes a conservative.
As Krauthammer points out today; Mitt has no conservative accomplishment to point to. Which is why he is waning in support; he's not a conservative. He says conservative things, but he has not been a conservative.
Mar '11
Re: Newt and Mitt, Stocks and Bonds
Conor Friedersdorf:
Newt isn't a stock or a bond, he's a credit default swap
Conor, you absolutely nailed it. Thanks.
Jun '10
Re: Newt and Mitt, Stocks and Bonds
The King Prawn
I have to disagree. Peter's hair doesn't carry any inherent meaning; Mitt's always does. In '08 it said, "look at how perfect I am." Now with the few deliberately stray hairs in the front say, "I'm a regular guy." I think that fact is part of what drives people crazy about him. · Dec 2 at 5:58am
I meant it primarily as hair envy, being challenged that area. Peter and Mitt have nice grown-up hair. Newt's makes him look like a refugee from a mid-1960s rock band who recently allowed it to be cut above the ear.
Edited on December 2, 2011 at 4:26pm