Newt Takes to the Airwaves
Given the coverage over the past few days, you'd think Newt Gingrich was about to launch a full-on kamikaze mission against Mitt Romney. As Ricochet member Franco noted in the member feed yesterday, some of the more breathless coverage (including this gem from Politico) makes it sound like the former speaker's promised showdown with the former governor will stop just short of Newt setting fire to one of Romney's palatial homes. But Newt's new anti-Romney ad is now up in New Hampshire and South Carolina and ... well, judge for yourself:
This is far from a scorched earth attack. Personally, I don't think it works. Does Team Newt really think there's a substantial part of the electorate that's unaware of Romney's measured nature? In point of fact, it's probably a significant part of his appeal for the 25 percent of the GOP electorate that seems to be perpetually in his palm.
This is not a blistering attack. It's just an attempt to make the same argument at a louder volume. Thus, I think it's unlikely to move the needle for the Gingrich campaign.
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Dec '10
Re: Newt Takes to the Airwaves
Whether this ad works depends on whether the viewers will give credence to the idea that Romney will only tinker with the government's regulation of and interference with the economy.
I think Gingrich strikes a resonant note by emphasizing the need for bold action on the economy: a lot of GOP voters will agree with that proposition. The question then becomes whether those voters believe that Romney can and will be bold in action, and if not, whether Gingrich is the best alternative to take bold action. (I note that the Paul Gigot quote in the ad in support of Gingrich's plan calls it "ambitious," not "bold.")
Dec '11
Re: Newt Takes to the Airwaves
Yeah it is sort of weak sauce.
Mar '11
Re: Newt Takes to the Airwaves
The ad is fair and ineffective. I think little can be done to resuscitate Gingrich’s waning campaign, but perhaps a more fruitful tack would have been to make a virtue of necessity and acknowledge that boldness and even irreverence is what’s needed to overcome political inertia and that Gingrich has overcome that inertia before.
Dec '10
Re: Newt Takes to the Airwaves
It taps perfectly into the decision we face in the primary: how hard do we yank on the tiller? Romney wants a gentle course correction, others want to reverse course completely. The ad summarizes the difference well without being hyperbolic.
Re: Newt Takes to the Airwaves
Beautiful, Jack. My thoughts exactly.
Apr '11
Re: Newt Takes to the Airwaves
Someone's Tumblr page is going to have a lot of material to work with over the next couple of weeks.
Jan '11
Re: Newt Takes to the Airwaves
I think it's obvious what Newt's up to here.
So far, this campaign has been Romney v. The Latest Frontrunner. Give the LF a little time in the spotlight, and let gravity bring them back down. The same is likely to be true for Santorum. As each rises and falls, Romney also falls a little ... because it shows that the majority really doesn't trust him and doesn't want him.
The trick is to hang around. The wheel will turn. Sooner or later the electorate will come back to re-evaluate Newt. The trick is to be ready when the electorate turns.
What Newt needs is a win. Somewhere. Anywhere. My guess is he'll focus on Florida. If he can win one somewhere, he can turn that into a fighting chance.
Apr '11
Re: Newt Takes to the Airwaves
KC Mulville: I think it's obvious what Newt's up to here.
So far, this campaign has been Romney v. The Latest Frontrunner. Give the LF a little time in the spotlight, and let gravity bring them back down. The same is likely to be true for Santorum. As each rises and falls, Romney also falls a little ... because it shows that the majority really doesn't trust him and doesn't want him.
The trick is to hang around. The wheel will turn. Sooner or later the electorate will come back to re-evaluate Newt. The trick is to be ready when the electorate turns.
What Newt needs is a win. Somewhere. Anywhere. My guess is he'll focus on Florida. If he can win one somewhere, he can turn that into a fighting chance. · Jan 5 at 11:22am
Same scenario could work for Perry too, if not more so.
Re: Newt Takes to the Airwaves
KC, I think that's exactly what Newt is hoping for (and Billy is right to note that the same analysis holds for Perry). There's a big assumption built in there though: that, when Santorum falters, the search begins anew. There is another alternative: that the conservative electorate -- fresh out of candidates and having witnessed a streak of strong performances from Romney -- reconciles itself (albeit uncomfortably) to Mitt's inevitability. It's an open question, but I think the latter scenario slightly more likely.
KC Mulville:
The trick is to hang around. The wheel will turn. Sooner or later the electorate will come back to re-evaluate Newt. The trick is to be ready when the electorate turns.
Jan 5 at 11:22am
Feb '11
Re: Newt Takes to the Airwaves
A la Mark Steyn's comments on Gingrich loving adverbs, I thought he might say something at the end like, "This is Newt Gingrich, and I wholeheartedly support this message," or, "This is Newt Gingrich, and I unreservedly support this message."
Edited on Jan 5 at 11:43amDec '11
Re: Newt Takes to the Airwaves
Wouldnt that first require a strong performance by Romney? He hasnt moved the needle at all in 5 years. He got nearly the exact same voters in 2012 as he did in 2008 in Iowa.
Apr '11
Re: Newt Takes to the Airwaves
Troy Senik, Ed.: KC, I think that's exactly what Newt is hoping for (and Billy is right to note that the same analysis holds for Perry). There's a big assumption built in there though: that, when Santorum falters, the search begins anew. There is another alternative: that the conservative electorate -- fresh out of candidates and having witnessed a streak of strong performances from Romney -- reconciles itself (albeit uncomfortably) to Mitt's inevitability. It's an open question, but I think the latter scenario slightly more likely.
KC Mulville:.
Jan 5 at 11:22am
Jan 5 at 11:34am
I just don't see your alternative scenario happening. The Republican electorate is deeply frustrated and wary of being saddled (again!) with a second-rate, "most electable" candidate who turns out to be a bust in the general election.
Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but in the end, I think the nominee is going to be one of the three "not Romney" candidates.
Unless they simply run out of funds and can't continue.
Jan '11
Re: Newt Takes to the Airwaves
I'm sure this is Romney's strategy. Sooner or later they're just going to have to accept him. It's funny, though ... we haven't, so far.
I'll vote for Romney only if I have to. (Hardly the messiah complex from four years ago, is it?) But it will mean that Romney will have no mandate for anything. No ambitious programs. And so, if anything is going to happen, it'll come from Congress.
Hey, come to think of it, this might just work out ...
Edited on Jan 5 at 12:11pmAug '10
Re: Newt Takes to the Airwaves
One thing I look forward to at the end of this election cycle is for the adjective "bold" to fade away back to its normal level of usage. I'm tired of how much that word is used in ads, debates, and interviews. Maybe it works well in focus groups, but when I hear it used it's reminiscent of nails on a chalkboard.
Dec '10
Re: Newt Takes to the Airwaves
Boldness for its own sake is rarely a good idea, even in barbecue sauces.
But when one is in extremis, boldness is really the recognition of the extraordinary minimum effort necessary to survive extraordinary circumstances. Capt. Bligh is set adrift in a longboat in the South Pacific and has to navigate 1000 miles of open ocean to reach safety, because he must. Shackleton's ship breaks up in Antarctic pack ice so he marches his crew a year across ice to the sea, then rows 400 miles and mountaineers across an island to get help, because he must.
Voters want to see that their next President will do what he must to rescue America. They already have a President too timid to do it.
Jul '10
Re: Newt Takes to the Airwaves
KC Mulville: I think it's obvious what Newt's up to here.
What Newt needs is a win. Somewhere. Anywhere. My guess is he'll focus on Florida. If he can win one somewhere, he can turn that into a fighting chance. · Jan 5 at 11:22am
You mean South Carolina.
I think the ad works, but I think the Northeastern sensibility is to be contrary.
Plus, the debates will then remind people why Newt bubbled up in the first place.
Edited on Jan 5 at 1:32pmJul '10
Re: Newt Takes to the Airwaves
Oh, and this ad is great.
Apr '11
Re: Newt Takes to the Airwaves
Mmmmm...pie (0:24)...
Sorry, what was the question again?
Dec '10
Re: Newt Takes to the Airwaves
That is going to leave a mark.
Apr '11
Re: Newt Takes to the Airwaves
I think it's a sensible ad for this reason. This is why I put up the post pointing out that on spending (the area we need radical change), Romney has a far more radical record than the other candidates. If Newt successfully persuades people that Romney's jobs plan is like Obama's, he (or Perry or Santorum) would become the nominee. I don't know the specifics of the charge, though. Has he outlined them elsewhere?