Newt Redux, or, the Robinson Response
I'm posting from the road, so I'll keep this brief, but here's my concise response to Peter's questions re: Newt:
1) Yes, I did envision Newt getting near the lead or taking it outright. What surprises me, however, is how quickly it happened. I suspected that Cain would gradually trail off as his suitability for the job was called into question on substance. Having to spend a few weeks combatting the sexual harassment allegations, however, seems to have catalyzed that process. This is a mixed blessing for Team Gingrich, as more time at the front of the pack means more time for frontrunner-level scrutiny. That is going to be the last great test for whether Newt can endure as a major contender -- and it's going to be far and away the most difficult challenge he's faced thus far.
2) Like most GOP primary voters, I'm a rent-to-own guy at this stage in the race. Newt is the most attractive figure in the field right now and the only one I've seriously considered supporting apart from Rick Perry (that is, until Rick Perry actually began running for president). If we were voting today, I'd cast my ballot for the former speaker, but having the field set isn't the be all and end all of my judgment. Seeing how Newt performs under scrutiny over the next few months will be highly instructive.
3) I agree with 90 percent of Peter's reasoning as to why Newt could be in this for the long-haul. I'd only add two points: the substance of Newt's past transgressions are known; the details are not, necessarily (particularly outside of the conservative base). How he handles them will be the acid test of whether his candidacy has legs.
Also, it's salient that Peter cites Patton as an example of a great leader with a somewhat jarring personality. He's completely right, as per usual, but Patton never faced an electorate. One of the things I noticed about Newt while working for him was that it was easy to get audiences to respect him, but much more difficult to get them to like him on a personal level. Normally, that would be a definitive strike against someone in a presidential race, but perhaps not this time. If Newt's the nominee, the question becomes whether the American electorate is more in the mood for erratic brilliance or predictable failure.
If Newt endures, the fight for the nomination comes down to whether the GOP is in a betting mood. Gingrich is the ultimate high-stakes wager; his nomination either results in a decisive victory or a Goldwateresque defeat (and it's how he performs, not the substance of his message, that will be dispositive). With Romney, I suspect we're talking about much narrower margins -- and it's not clear which side of them he ends up on.
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Jun '10
Re: Newt Redux, or, the Robinson Response
I completely agree with you. As a thought experiment, take away Bill Clinton and we would still have surpluses and welfare reform and many other things. Take away Newt and none of these things would have happened. He was, I realize now, the essential ingredient. As soon as he was gone the Republicans betrayed us -- I was shocked how callow and money-grubbing they were. It seems over time that the credit is going more to Newt than Clinton. This is as it should be because the Congress is more responsible for the deficit and debt.
Jun '10
Re: Newt Redux, or, the Robinson Response
Yet another reason to support Newt. Can you imagine the fights he had to endure from both sides of the aisle to get the congress to flip to the Republicans in 1994. He made enemies even when he was raised to minority whip. Too bad. He must have hated those hacks but had to put up with their condescension and nay-saying. He proved them all to be fools.
This is not true -- it is calumny to spread such liberal-manufactured hate against Newt. Just because he was not liked by lowlifes does not mean it was disgraceful.
May '10
Re: Newt Redux, or, the Robinson Response
Troy's characterization of Newt's erratic brilliance could be a strong point in his favor if the fit is the one required to improve our existential crisis. Churchill fit the same mold and was the perfect man for the time. Grant, Sherman, Petreus, Patton, Reagan, Bismark and a cascade of others, were perhaps less erratic, but men for their times.
I am not sure that Newt really is the person, despite his brilliance, that can lead the country down the path required.
I worry less about the electability versus Obama than I do re. whether I really believe he has what it takes to get us moving down the correct path. I a not yet convinced.
I am significantly more bearish than the Ricochet norm (Mr Dellingpole clone). I believe that if we don't get this one right, we are in for a nightmare. The electability issue becomes less relevant in this paradigm. Picking a candidate for his possible success in the election could well lead to a slightly slower version of catastrophe rather than a real improvement of our condition. We simply can't screw this one up. the stakes are too high.
Jun '10
Re: Newt Redux, or, the Robinson Response
Mendel
...
First point: I think you guys don't appreciate how easily independents can be scared by tough conservative talk back to Obama.
...
I just don't know about this. You might be confused by the last two decades or so but since we have not seen a real defender of conservative principles in presidential races since Reagan, I really wonder if you are wrong.
One thing most conservatives really got their fill of was the long term slide in our party's reputation. GWB and Rove's were absolutely unwilling to defend themselves and the party brand. Unforgivable. I think independents will respond to strong and clear traditional American (conservative nowadays) values.
Dec '10
Re: Newt Redux, or, the Robinson Response
This is a center right country. Conservatism wins every time the message is clear and articulated well. Newt is the most capable of conveying this and therefore electable. He is in my prayers.
Aug '10
Re: Newt Redux, or, the Robinson Response
So I am driving home after a long day day at he office, it's too late to cook, so I pick up a chile verde and rice burrito and head to the house.
Flipping the AM dial, I land on KFI (home to El Rushbo) and hear some folks talking about this very subject.
Imagine my surprise when I learn that the latest Not-Romney to blossom once said that Spanish is "the language of living in the ghetto".
¡Ay Carramba!- y ¡Que Lastima tambien!
I mean, my burrito is right there on the back seat, still hot, and I want to beat President Obama too.
Seriously, if this is your guy more power to you, but go in with your eyes wide open, not wide shut.
Newt is the Comstock Lode of opposition research, big shining nuggets of oppo gold are just lying around everywhere, it's like the farging Pirates of the Caribbean ride over there.
Cain imploded today, made Perry look like Good Will Hunting, so tick-tock on that. I'll bet folding money we get to both Santorum and Huntsman before this thing is over.
Jul '10
Re: Newt Redux, or, the Robinson Response
Larry Koler:
This is not true -- it is calumny to spread such liberal-manufactured hate against Newt. Just because he was not liked by lowlifes does not mean it was disgraceful. · Nov 14 at 8:41pm
It is not a calumny to have a different interpretation of Newt's resignation from yours Larry.
There are people who find adultery disgraceful.
Mar '11
Re: Newt Redux, or, the Robinson Response
Larry Koler
Mendel
...
First point: I think you guys don't appreciate how easily independents can be scared by tough conservative talk back to Obama.
...
I just don't know about this. You might be confused by the last two decades or so but since we have not seen a real defender of conservative principles in presidential races since Reagan, I really wonder if you are wrong.
I don't doubt that a conservative with a Reagan-like gift for communication could win over today's independents. But take those same principles and combine them with an "eat your cold vegetables" attitude and you have a loser. Maybe Newt has the gift, we shall see, but Cain and Perry certainly do not.
Dec '10
Re: Newt Redux, or, the Robinson Response
Squishy Blue, Santorum maybe. I will bet that folding money against Huntsman rising to the top tier. I hope Newt proves you wrong and stays at the plate. We shall certainly see. I think he has weathered a lot of slings and arrows and now may be coming back like a lion.
Jun '10
Re: Newt Redux, or, the Robinson Response
Palaeologus
Larry Koler:
This is not true -- it is calumny to spread such liberal-manufactured hate against Newt. Just because he was not liked by lowlifes does not mean it was disgraceful. · Nov 14 at 8:41pm
It is not a calumny to have a different interpretation of Newt's resignation from yours Larry.
There are people who find adultery disgraceful. · Nov 14 at 9:23pm
Were you confused about what the disgraceful behavior was? It seems to change depending on which NPR show you listened to. I'm not sure that Pessimist was talking about this disgrace but one of the unspecified ones that we are told about all the time about his unstable character, his RINO tendencies, his (fill in blank here), etc.
Aug '10
Re: Newt Redux, or, the Robinson Response
I am very often wrong so, there is hope in that.
Oct '10
Re: Newt Redux, or, the Robinson Response
Squishy Blue RINO: So I am driving home after a long day day at he office, it's too late to cook, so I pick up a chile verde and rice burrito and head to the house.
Flipping the AM dial, I land on KFI (home to El Rushbo) and hear some folks talking about this very subject.
Imagine my surprise when I learn that the latest Not-Romney to blossom once said that Spanish is "the language of living in the ghetto".
¡Ay Carramba!- y ¡Que Lastima tambien!
And he's supposed to be one of the more moderate candidates on Immigration and a strong advocate of Hispanic outreach.
Here's newt being asked by jose diaz balart on immigration. Does he sound non-moderate, Squish?
May '10
Re: Newt Redux, or, the Robinson Response
Troy, brilliant analysis. I'm with you on all counts, except that I suppose if I were to pull the lever today, I'd pull for Mitt.
Jonah said somewhere (I think it was Johah, maybe Jim Geragty) that at this rate Santorum might win by being the last man standing after all the other not-Romney bubbles have burst.
I could live with that. In fact, if he could get traction and get happier, I think Santorum be the best of the lot.
Aug '10
Re: Newt Redux, or, the Robinson Response
John Marzan
Squishy Blue RINO: So I am driving home after a long day day at he office, it's too late to cook, so I pick up a chile verde and rice burrito and head to the house.
Flipping the AM dial, I land on KFI (home to El Rushbo) and hear some folks talking about this very subject.
Imagine my surprise when I learn that the latest Not-Romney to blossom once said that Spanish is "the language of living in the ghetto".
¡Ay Carramba!- y ¡Que Lastima tambien!
And he's supposed to be one of the more moderate candidates on Immigration and a strong advocate of Hispanic outreach.
Here's newt being asked by jose diaz balart on immigration. Does he sound non-moderate, Squish? · Nov 14 at 11:30pm
Compared to Cain's giant bug zapper he sounds like Speedy Gonzalez, but the real eye opener is the groundswell of applause his proposing a law on the use of English received.
That is telling regarding how deeply rooted the differences are between some cohorts of a hoped for GOP-Latino coalition.
Edited on Nov 15, 2011 at 6:50amAug '10
Re: Newt Redux, or, the Robinson Response
katievs:
Jonah said somewhere (I think it was Johah, maybe Jim Geragty) that at this rate Santorum might win by being the last man standing after all the other not-Romney bubbles have burst.
I could live with that. In fact, if he could get traction and get happier, I think Santorum be the best of the lot. · Nov 15 at 4:45am
The Santorum rush is coming. Newt's oppo gold rush has already started. I think the Santorum Spring will hit by Turkey Day, oh my, it's already the 15th, better make that before Christmas. And if he busts too- then it's Huntsman time. His name is not Romney either.
If Huntsman gets the same generous, excuse and defend second look every else has, he will compare well with Romney. This is coming from a guy who thinks he is a either a prince-ling or a stalking-horse.
This is starting to look like closing time at Bennigans.
Edited on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:30amRe: Newt Redux, or, the Robinson Response
"This is starting to look like closing time at Bennigans." Good analogy. And still, at the end of the bar, sits Romney. And we're not going to feel very good about this in the morning.
Apr '11
Re: Newt Redux, or, the Robinson Response
John Marzan:
The Only Way the Tea Party Survives beyond 2012, OR, the danger of nominating a Romney for the Republican Party
- if mitt romney is the nominee, the only way the tea party remains relevant is to see romney defeated. if romney loses to obama, then they can blame the establishment for not nominating a true conservative, and this sets the stage for a third party movement which will hurt the repubs more than the democrats.
- OTOH, if a weak non-romney Tea Party conservative gets the nomination and still loses to an unpopular Obama (using the Reid-Angle model), what will happen to the tea party after Nov 6, 2012?
The Tea Party Caucus endorsements suggest that the two Tea Party candidates are Newt and Mitt. And have been since a long time before Newt became popular. The Tea Party is about reducing the size of government. Mitt and Newt are about reducing the size of government. Optics matter, but the Tea Party is smarter than you think.
Dec '10
Re: Newt Redux, or, the Robinson Response
Squishy Blue RINO
This is starting to look like closing time at Bennigans. · Nov 15 at 6:49am
I once had a chief of the boat who liked to say "go ugly early and get the best of the ugly." I'm not sure how that fits here, but it makes sense somehow.
Re: Newt Redux, or, the Robinson Response
The King Prawn
Squishy Blue RINO
This is starting to look like closing time at Bennigans. · Nov 15 at 6:49am
I once had a chief of the boat who liked to say "go ugly early and get the best of the ugly." I'm not sure how that fits here, but it makes sense somehow. · Nov 15 at 8:53am
I think his brother must have been a Chief Master Sergeant in Korea during the same time frame I was there.
Apr '11
Re: Newt Redux, or, the Robinson Response
The trouble is that he's not only going to be heard on debates. There will be more advertizing this cycle than in any previous cycle, and Newt has been on the other side of all of the likely issues. He's colorful and vivid, and makes good fodder for 30 second commercials. There's 30 years of whacky moments of statism to mine, and memorable, entertaining, awful statements.
The stuff about how he cheated on his 2nd wife because he was too patriotic to remain faithful is probably the funniest of his self-inflicted ad hominems, but there's a ton of them out there. Some of them would be targeted, whether the anti-colonial stuff to reinvigorate the black/ liberal vote or Squishy's hispanic thing. Some of it would be generalized, like the Libyan reversal of position.
Worse, a lot of it would harm the greater party, as it conforms with pre-existing negative stereotypes.