Yesterday I taped an episode of Uncommon Knowledge with the Claremont Institute's William Voegeli, the author of Never Enough:  America's Limitless Welfare State.  Meticulously researched and carefully argued, Never Enough proves compelling--and horrifying.

never-enough

With us for more than seven decades now, Bill argues, the welfare state just keeps on growing.  In the early nineteen-seventies, welfare spending first overtook defense spending as the biggest component in the federal budget.  Today welfare spending is three times more than defense spending.

Have Republicans managed to shrink the welfare state?  Ever?  No.  Never.  Not for so much as a single year.  Reagan slowed the growth of welfare spending dramatically.  But still it grew.  While Gingrich was Speaker, Republicans once again slowed the growth rate, but this time only modestly. As Bill writes:

Adjusted for inflation, per capita federal welfare state spending was 77 percent higher in 2007 than it was when President Reagan took office....Liberal victories advance liberalism; conservative ‘victories’ postpone liberalism."

How can this be?  Because, Bill explained, Republicans persistently underestimate the political costs of taking on the welfare state.

Which brings us to this morning.  Rep. Eric Cantor, the House Majority Leader, held a news conference announcing the budget cuts that House Republicans are now formally proposing.  Billions

cantor

in reductions across dozens of agencies.  (The plan excludes defense spending.)  Cut, cut, cut.

I applaud Cantor and his colleagues.  I believe they're doing the right thing--the necessary thing.  But I wonder whether they realize what they're getting themselves into.

Are Republicans underestimating, once again, the political costs of taking on the welfare state?

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Paul A. Rahe

No, they do not underestimate the political costs. This time, however, they recognize the political costs of not cutting. Bill Voegeli may be right about the 1980s and the 1990s. Thanks to Obama, Pelosi, and Reid, however, those strictures no longer apply. The existence of the Tea Party and the results of the 2010 election are clear signs that the public is aware that there are limits and that Obama and the Democrats have crossed the boundaries. This time, if the Republicans are faithful to their base, it can be done. In 2012, we will face a clear choice: budget reductions vs. much higher taxes -- and Americans have already signaled that they prefer budget reductions.

Jimmy Carter
Joined
Jul '10
Jimmy Carter

If Our side goes down, I'd prefer They go down swinging (an axe).

Edited on Feb 10, 2011 at 10:31am
Chris Deleon
Joined
May '10
Chris Deleon

I'm sorry, but even $100 billion in cuts is a pittance compared to a $1.5 trillion deficit.  And they're having a hard time even getting $100 billion in cuts?!?  Not to mention I'm sure it will be reduced in further negotiations with the Senate and the President-- they will never sign onto $100 billion in cuts without a fight.

I am increasingly doubtful we'll ever turn around this Titanic before it hits the looming iceberg.

But as I've said before, the (somewhat) good news is that life will go on.  The crisis will be very difficult for many people, but it will accomplish what is currently politically impossible: cutting the government down to size, out of pure necessity.

Is it the most ideal way for that to happen?  Of course not.  But our political system and environment doesn't seem to make it possible to do the sane, necessary and correct things, long-term.

Bryan G. Stephens
Joined
May '10
Bryan G. Stephens

If they can start reducing the welfare state in Europe, we can do it here.


Joined
Jan '11
Aaron N. Coleman
Paul A. Rahe:  In 2012, we will face a clear choice: budget reductions vs. much higher taxes -- and Americans have already signaled that they prefer budget reductions. · Feb 10 at 10:26am

If  we face a clear choice.......it isn't clear yet if we will (sadly).

Chris Deleon
Joined
May '10
Chris Deleon
Bryan G. Stephens: If they can start reducing the welfare state in Europe, we can do it here. · Feb 10 at 10:34am

Just starting won't be enough.  It will have to be slash-and-burn.

raycon
Joined
Oct '10
raycon
Chris Deleon: Above   · Feb 10 at 10:33am

Sadly, Chris is all too correct.  The major issue missed however, is that we will not have a United States to protect us.  That is the wild card.  When the really hard times come, there will be black knights on black horses, and too many struggling and disappointed Americans will be seeking a savior.  Will we have the opportunity to rebuild America, or will we simply be co-opted into the black nations?

My built-in cynicism ways it will be so, but if we, (I), allow despair, we assure the outcome.  There has never been an honorable surrender.  We should, rather, lose the battle honorably.

wilber forge
Joined
Oct '10
wilber forge

The Brits may have begun cost reductions in the welfare state. Far too late, when immigration is factored in. A true welfare abyss was created there. 

One of the real issues is that the system here has no meaningfull oversight.    

The same apples to Social Security... This should have been policed long ago.

Kenneth
Joined
Jul '10
Kenneth

To me, it's not just about spending and deficits, it's about rolling back the encroachments of the Federal government. 

I realize there's only so much that can be accomplished, given the current distribution of political power, but I really think the Republicans will be remiss if they don't at least try to eliminate the Department of Education.  There's a powerful case to be made:

  • It's a Jimmy Carter invention
  • It's unconstitutional
  • It's been a complete failure
  • It's an instrument for feeding children the very worst sort of propaganda
Edited on Feb 10, 2011 at 11:28am

Joined
May '10
Mike Riscili

Isn't the problem that Republicans have never really taken on the welfare state. They've tried to tinker around the edges making no real difference.  This puts them at a political disadvantage because opponents can portray them as against the poor while not moving the economic needle back to sanity.

In a different way, Clinton took on the welfare state and was able to make some meaningful reforms.  That momentum was left to die and now the welfare state has exploded.

It seems to me the political risk is in hedging on welfare rather than taking it on.

Jaydee_007
Joined
Jul '10
Jaydee_007

Who was it Reagan was quoting when he siad, "If you pay people to be poor, you're going to find that you have a lot of people willing to be poor." ?

In the old testament Proverbs tells us that 'the leech has two daughters, Give and Give!'  and that 'Fire never says Enough.'

For this reason liberalism can be compared to Leeches and Fire.  They take and take and burn it to no avail.


Joined
Sep '10
liberal jim

Little more than a month ago Sec. Gates announced a proposal to eliminate a command that is little more than a bunch of government bureaucrats engaged in duplication.  Within five minutes Cantor was in front of a microphone decrying the proposed cuts as threatening the security of the nation.  The command is located in VA and the waste Cates was proposing to eliminate was Virginia ham, better known as Republican pork.   I think that anyone who has been in Congress for more than 10 years has either been corrupted or was corrupt when they got there.  I realize I may not be 100% correct, but I am seldom surprised.  Dems would be eager to cut defense, but the GOP keeps saying , “not my pork.”  

The King Prawn
Joined
Dec '10
The King Prawn

If we zeroed the budget for discretionary spending and defense we would still barely be able to make ends meet with current tax revenue. If all the other stuff is untouchable, the only logical way to eliminate the deficit would be to have no military and no various federal services. I believe the liberal plan would be to zero the military budget and just raise taxes (on the wealthy...lol) to cover the various spending needs. Why is the one explicit constitutionally directed function of government the one that gets in the back of the line?

Aaron Miller
Joined
May '10
Aaron Miller

The standards of success for Republicans now and their standards of success in 2012 must be different.

For now, Republican politicians must merely prove to voters that they're serious about stopping government growth and proposing budget cuts. They're not powerful enough to enact the necessary reforms (nor even to prevent Obama from continuing to abuse the nation with executive orders), but they must retain the Tea Party's confidence until 2012. What must be shown now is initiative more than action.

Most voters do not expect the sort of action now that they would expect under a Republican President and Republican Senate in 2012. If Republicans make those gains in 2012, then nothing less than a wrecking ball to the national budget and bureaucracy will be acceptable.

Michael Labeit
Joined
May '10
Michael Labeit

The problem, as usual, is with the American people. They want social security, medicare, and medicaid. They want to be the beneficiaries of income redistribution but not the benefactors. This explains why they clamor for tax cuts and "social spending".

Aaron Miller
Joined
May '10
Aaron Miller

You're right, Michael, which is why Jimbo is also right.

Jimmy Carter: If Our side goes down, I'd prefer They go down swinging (an axe).

It would be a miracle if conservatives actually made substantial and lasting gains in the next decade. Assuming they don't, it's just a matter of standing for a principles until the whole house of cards comes tumbling down and we start over.

CJRun
Joined
Dec '10
CJRun

 Where are we now, roughly 49% not paying federal income taxes?

What are the political costs of waiting any longer, until there is a clear voting majority that does not pay into the system?  This is the brink.


Joined
Jan '11
Margaret Ball
Kenneth: I realize there's only so much that can be accomplished, given the current distribution of political power, but I really think the Republicans will be remiss if they don't at least try to eliminate the Department of Education.  There's a powerful case to be made

Yeah, but it's my best counter-argument. When a gaggle of my liberal friends start spouting forth on the virtues of big government, I always ask, "You mean, like the Department of Education?"

Instant crickets.

Oh well, I'm willing to sacrifice for the common good.

The King Prawn
Joined
Dec '10
The King Prawn

CJRun:  Where are we now, roughly 49% not paying federal income taxes?

What are the political costs of waiting any longer, until there is a clear voting majority that does not pay into the system?  This is the brink. · Feb 10 at 2:41pm

This year the gov kept less than $700 of what they withheld from my check in federal taxes. They kept all of the over $5K they took in social security and medicare. They're still extracting the pound or so of flesh even from the poorest, but they disguise it as "insurance" that each will receive back at some point. This is, of course, a big steaming pile of something the word filter would delete. I'd let them keep all of what they withheld for income tax if it meant that what I pay into the other programs actually went to them.

fullfrontal
Joined
Jan '11
fullfrontal
Michael Labeit: The problem, as usual, is with the American people. They want social security, medicare, and medicaid. They want to be the beneficiaries of income redistribution but not the benefactors. This explains why they clamor for tax cuts and "social spending". · Feb 10 at 1:31pm

This is absolutely correct.  And I also think that it is telling that Ronald Reagan, the patron saint of modern American conservatism, was not able to beat back the entitlement beasts that we thought he would.  This is one of the reasons I would hesitate waiting for the next Reagan to come around.  

In a democracy, the fault lies not with our leaders but with ourselves.


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