As Ben rightly noted in his post last night, RealClearPolitics' Sean Trende is a man apart in his electoral exegesis. Analytical, empirical, and not prone to hyperventilation, he's almost temperamentally incapable of going anywhere the numbers don't lead him. That's why it's so interesting that Trende -- who has long been dismissive of the prospects of a brokered Republican convention this year -- is starting to change his tune. From his RCP piece this morning:
If this split continues -- Romney in the West and Northeast, Gingrich in the South, and Santorum in the Midwest -- we could easily find ourselves in a scenario where no candidate crosses the 1,144-delegate threshold by the time voting ends. Consider this: Right now, Romney barely has a majority of the delegates. If Gingrich successfully contests the winner-takes-all allocation in the Florida primary (based on the RNC’s rule against such a format before April), no one would have a majority of the delegates as of today.
Welcome, ladies and gentleman, to the jungle.