Nectar for Those Hoping for a Brokered Convention
As Ben rightly noted in his post last night, RealClearPolitics' Sean Trende is a man apart in his electoral exegesis. Analytical, empirical, and not prone to hyperventilation, he's almost temperamentally incapable of going anywhere the numbers don't lead him. That's why it's so interesting that Trende -- who has long been dismissive of the prospects of a brokered Republican convention this year -- is starting to change his tune. From his RCP piece this morning:
If this split continues -- Romney in the West and Northeast, Gingrich in the South, and Santorum in the Midwest -- we could easily find ourselves in a scenario where no candidate crosses the 1,144-delegate threshold by the time voting ends. Consider this: Right now, Romney barely has a majority of the delegates. If Gingrich successfully contests the winner-takes-all allocation in the Florida primary (based on the RNC’s rule against such a format before April), no one would have a majority of the delegates as of today.
Welcome, ladies and gentleman, to the jungle.
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May '10
Re: Nectar for Those Hoping for a Brokered Convention
I'll mention what I heard in 2008-- that Ron Paul's people were organizing to try to get themselves in as delegates in as many locales as possible, to get the advantage in case of a brokered convention, where, after the failure of the first vote or several votes where they would be bound by the results of their states' primaries, they would be free to vote their own way. I've heard it said they are still up to the same strategy in 2012.
So for those wishing for a brokered convention, think twice.
Better to have a clean majority. With Santorum as the winner, of course. ;-)
Edited on Feb 9 at 10:37amMar '11
Re: Nectar for Those Hoping for a Brokered Convention
Chris Deleon: I'll mention what I heard in 2008-- that Ron Paul's people were organizing to try to get themselves in as delegates in as many locales as possible, to get the advantage in case of a brokered convention, where, after the failure of the first vote or several votes where they would be bound by the results of their states' primaries, they would be free to vote their own way. I've heard it said they are still up to the same strategy in 2012.
So for those wishing for a brokered convention, think twice.
Better to have a clean majority. With Santorum as the winner, of course. ;-) · 1 minute ago
Edited 0 minutes ago
Hmm, intriguing.
Thinking twice...
Done. At this point I do believe I'm willing to risk it.
May '10
Re: Nectar for Those Hoping for a Brokered Convention
Roberto
Hmm, intriguing.
Thinking twice...
Done. At this point I do believe I'm willing to risk it.
What do you hope will result from a brokered convention?
Re: Nectar for Those Hoping for a Brokered Convention
I don't completely grasp how a brokered convention would work. Can someone flesh this out for me? Who does the brokering?
May '10
Re: Nectar for Those Hoping for a Brokered Convention
My main concern with a brokered convention is not that Paul will sneak in delegates, but rather that it will result in an inability to make a wise decision on the VP choice. I suspect if any one of the four remaining candidates does not meet the threshold, the result will be that two of the candidates make a grand bargain to reach the threshold. Thus we'll end up with a Romney-Gingrich, or a Santorum-Romney ticket, or so on. We'll end up saddled with two of these guys that many of us don't really like instead of just one.
Edited on Feb 9 at 11:16amJun '10
Re: Nectar for Those Hoping for a Brokered Convention
If it happens I think the delegates would end up picking one of the current candidates.
And even if they did pick (insert name of your favorite candidate here), would he really have a chance of winning in November? Is there enough time for a "drafted" candidate to put together the state-by-state ground game, the fundraising network, to refine his message, and so on?
To use a sports analogy: if you put together an all-star team and they skipped training camp, the preseason, and the regular season and played their first game together in the playoffs, they would get creamed by another team with less talent that had been playing together all season.
Bottom line: Paul Ryan, Mitch Daniels, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, any of them might have made great candidates if they had run. But if a brokered convention drafts any of them I predict a landslide Obama victory.
Jun '10
Re: Nectar for Those Hoping for a Brokered Convention
I'm not sure where the term "brokered" came from, I think all it means is that after the first round of voting all the pledged delegates are free to vote for whomever they wish.
Jul '10
Re: Nectar for Those Hoping for a Brokered Convention
The pipe dream of some is that a white knight unsullied by the primary process will ride in to accept coronation, er, nomination. This anti-democratic usurpation of the rights of vetted candidates contesting the nomination somewhat honorably on the field of battle for an anointed one untested and unvetted through the process is, to my thinking, a recipe for disaster. A disaster multiplied by the choice, as some have murmured, of a third Bush.
Whatever we may think of the current selection, like Clinton in 92, they are the ones who stepped forward to grasp the brass ring, the rest are miserable Houldon Caulfield's. For this cycle at least.
The choir of insiders putting forth fresh names at this stage are not doing their party or the American people any favors.
May '11
Re: Nectar for Those Hoping for a Brokered Convention
Am I the only Ricocheteer old enough to remember real political conventions? Not these beauty pageants where we already know the candidate will be but conventions where real floor fights broke out?
(Added from Wikipedia)
Here is a clip from the 1976 convention where Reagan gave his impromptu speech. A commentator has a telling line, "you can just feel...the palpable sense that we've nominated the wrong guy."
I remember watching the machinations in both the Republican and Democratic Conventions. I found it fascinating.
Edited on Feb 9 at 11:56amDec '10
Re: Nectar for Those Hoping for a Brokered Convention
Here's the party rules.
If there is no victory on the first ballot, the delegates get to vote their conscience (rather than the candidate they pledged to represent) on subsequent ballots.
If there is no victory on a second ballot, then you have a free market for the delegates' votes. The only rule is that the roll call of the states repeats until there is a nominee.
That means any candidate, any agent of a candidate, and any representative of an interest can make deals with one another for support, and can canvass the delegates for their support. Any elegible Republican can be nominated at that point if the nominating rules are observed.
Candidates with dedicated followings -- delegates who will vote as the candidate directs out of a belief in the candidate's leadership -- can trade their delegates for other considerations (like a VP slot). Candidates whose delegates are fickle have no such trading power because no one will obey their directions.
Money, media and organization are the other trading chips.
Jun '10
Re: Nectar for Those Hoping for a Brokered Convention
Pilli: Am I the only Ricocheteer old enough to remember real political conventions? Not these beauty pageants where we already know the candidate will be but conventions where real floor fights broke out?
Here is a clip from the 1976 convention where Reagan gave his impromptu speech.
I was born in 1976. So no, in my memory the GOP nominee has usually been decided well before I even get to vote (California has a late primary).
Oct '10
Re: Nectar for Those Hoping for a Brokered Convention
Ryan and Rubio have no executive experience..Mitch Daniels was W's Budget Director. Bush is a Bush.
I don't see why any of them would be popular with people who had already rejected the current candidates.
And I was born in 1966, so while I remember the 1980 Primaries to some extent ("I'm paying for this microphone"), I don't remember the 1976 Conventions at all.
Mar '11
Re: Nectar for Those Hoping for a Brokered Convention
Chris Deleon
Roberto
Hmm, intriguing.
Thinking twice...
Done. At this point I do believe I'm willing to risk it.
What do you hope will result from a brokered convention? · 1 hour ago
If Ford at the last minute had not secured the necessary support to edge out Reagan the result would have been a brokered convention. There existed the real possibility that the GOP could have had Reagan in '76 and the disastrous Carter Presidency could have been completely avoided.
Just put in Romney for Ford and Carter for Obama and you see where I'm going with this...
Exactly so, that commentator echoes my thoughts today as the 'inevitability' of Romney is still being touted even after his three recent losses.
Dec '10
Re: Nectar for Those Hoping for a Brokered Convention
Roberto
Chris Deleon
Roberto
Hmm, intriguing.
Thinking twice...
Done. At this point I do believe I'm willing to risk it.
What do you hope will result from a brokered convention? · 1 hour ago
If Ford at the last minute had not secured the necessary support to edge out Reagan the result would have been a brokered convention. There existed the real possibility that the GOP could have had Reagan in '76 and the disastrous Carter Presidency could have been completely avoided.
Just put in Romney for Ford and Carter for Obama and you see where I'm going with this...
Great. Just one thing: there's no one to put in for Reagan.
May '10
Re: Nectar for Those Hoping for a Brokered Convention
Chris Deleon
Roberto
Hmm, intriguing.
Thinking twice...
Done. At this point I do believe I'm willing to risk it.
What do you hope will result from a brokered convention? · 2 hours ago
DRAFT PAUL RYAN Ryan-Rubio 2012
Edited on Feb 9 at 1:38pmMay '10
Re: Nectar for Those Hoping for a Brokered Convention
Stuart Creque
Here's the party rules.
If there is no victory on the first ballot, the delegates get to vote their conscience (rather than the candidate they pledged to represent) on subsequent ballots.
If there is no victory on a second ballot, then you have a free market for the delegates' votes. The only rule is that the roll call of the states repeats until there is a nominee.
That means any candidate, any agent of a candidate, and any representative of an interest can make deals with one another for support, and can canvass the delegates for their support. Any elegible Republican can be nominated at that point if the nominating rules are observed.
Candidates with dedicated followings -- delegates who will vote as the candidate directs out of a belief in the candidate's leadership -- can trade their delegates for other considerations (like a VP slot). Candidates whose delegates are fickle have no such trading power because no one will obey their directions.
Rent The Best Man
Feb '11
Re: Nectar for Those Hoping for a Brokered Convention
Keith Preston
Chris Deleon
Roberto
Hmm, intriguing.
Thinking twice...
Done. At this point I do believe I'm willing to risk it.
What do you hope will result from a brokered convention? · 2 hours ago
DRAFT PAUL RYAN Ryan-Rubio 2012 · 1 minute ago
Edited 0 minutes ago
Agreed.
And spare me the sanctimony about a brokered convention violating the democratic nominating process. Most people don't even get to vote to select the nominee because they don't live in the 10 to 15 states that have their primaries or caucuses first.
And as for Santorum, if you are voting for him because he's a social conservative, then fine, not my cup of tea, but at least you are voting for him for the right reason. But if you think he's a fiscal conservative, think again. He's more of a Huckabee type, evidently motivated by his faith to vote for big govenment spending.
Re: Nectar for Those Hoping for a Brokered Convention
Stuart Creque
Here's the party rules.
If there is no victory on the first ballot, the delegates get to vote their conscience (rather than the candidate they pledged to represent) on subsequent ballots.
If there is no victory on a second ballot, then you have a free market for the delegates' votes. The only rule is that the roll call of the states repeats until there is a nominee.
Thanks for the explanation, Stuart. But this all seems so undemocratic to me — it would be as though the primaries and the electorate didn't matter an iota. Why should anyone favor this?
Apr '11
Re: Nectar for Those Hoping for a Brokered Convention
I apologize in advance for asking what is probably a really stupid question, but...
Let's say there is a brokered convention and Paul Ryan/Marco Rubio/Mitch Daniels/Other GOP Rock Star is "drafted" at said convention.
Is it written in stone somewhere that the draftee has to accept? Why does anyone think this scenario would change Ryan's (for example) mind?
Nov '11
Re: Nectar for Those Hoping for a Brokered Convention
Diane Ellis, Ed.
Thanks for the explanation, Stuart. But this all seems so undemocratic to me — it would be as though the primaries and the electorate didn't matter an iota. Why should anyone favor this? · 5 minutes ago
Technically, aren't we only voting to select delegates? So they would be representing us, more or less.
Wouldn't it most likely end simply with the delegates from the 3rd- and 4th-place candidates choosing between the candidates in 1st and 2nd?