My Thoughts On Last Night's Debate. What're Yours?
Three months ago, I was convinced the Republican nominee wouldn't be Mitt Romney. Two months ago, I was convinced that it couldn't be anybody but Romney.
And now?
I know nothing.
That said, a few thoughts:
Item: Going into the debate, all the polls showed Newt ahead in Iowa by double digits. That meant the debate amounted (to borrow Tim Groseclose's wonderful metaphor) to a NASCAR race. Anybody could argue about whether a certain candidate handled this or that line of argument better or worse than other candidates, but there were really only two questions that mattered:
Would Newt do anything so dramatic that it would cost him first place? Would he spin out? Would he slam into a barrier?
He didn't.
Would Mitt do anything dramatic enough to break away from the pack of candidates in the rear, overtaking Newt?
He didn't.
Newt didn't spin out and Mitt didn't overtake him. On that analysis alone, the debate belonged to Newt.
Item: The debate might--might--have done subtle but serious damage to Romney.
Mitt used to be seen as the inevitable nominee. Now he's trailing Newt by double digits in three of the first four primary states, namely, Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida.
Mitt used to be seen as the only Republican who could beat Obama. Now polls have shown that Newt could beat Obama.
Mitt used to be seen as cool, disciplined and utterly unflappable. Now? Well, he had some very rough moments last night. He permitted himself to become visibly annoyed by Rick Perry. He talked at much too much length about his continued devotion to RomneyCare, permitting himself to be placed on the defensive for minutes at a time. And he took a couple of swings at Newt that were simply undisciplined. Attack Newt for saying schoolchildren might one day perform science projects on the moon? Giving Newt the chance to reply with a passionate, compelling defense of the space program? Really? This could hardly have astonished me more, but Mitt looked less disciplined than Newt, not more so. (I hasten to admit that this is a purely subjective impression, reminding you that, as I have said, I know nothing, and I invite FrozenChosen and BThompson and anyone else among the Ricochetoise to disagree just as full-throatedly as they'd like.)
Maybe Mitt's support is firm--if his ceiling is 26 percent, maybe his floor is 24 percent. Maybe. But if his poll numbers now started to dwindle--in particular, if his lead in New Hampshire began to sink from the low double digits to, say, the middle single digits--I wouldn't be terribly surprised.
Item: That said, Mitt had some wonderful moments. In a couple of answers, he attacked Barack Obama, displaying more cogency and passion than ever before--something I doubt he ever would have done if he hadn't found himself in his present struggle with Newt. If Mitt does somehow manage to turn this campaign around--and, Lord knows, anything is still possible--he'll have Newt to thank for making him a tougher, more conservative, and more impassioned candidate.
Item: Which leads to one of the best lines of the evening. During our live blog, Ricochet member Pseudodionysius wrote this:
Mitt would make a great president if Newt would go into his office every three hours and holler at him.
Come to think of it, I take it back. I do know something. Pseudo's a genius.
Those, as I say, are my thoughts.
Yours?
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Comments:
Apr '11
Re: My Thoughts On Last Night's Debate. What're Yours?
What polls have shown that Newt could beat Obama? I haven't seen one, except one Rasmussen poll that has now flipped back this week to a 5 point Obama lead.
Edited on December 11, 2011 at 7:54pmJul '10
Re: My Thoughts On Last Night's Debate. What're Yours?
Three words that doomed Mitt: Ten Thousand Dollars.
May '10
Re: My Thoughts On Last Night's Debate. What're Yours?
I think A) Romney showed his patrician nature with the $10K is betting money. Stooopid.
B) Newt came out unscathed even though the questions were stacked against him
C) Diane Sawyer was:
Caught at the "pharmacy."
Re: My Thoughts On Last Night's Debate. What're Yours?
wmartin: What polls have shown that Newt could beat Obama? I haven't seen one, except one Rasmussen poll that has now flipped back this week to a 5 point Obama lead. · Dec 11 at 10:53am
Edited on Dec 11 at 10:54 am
Look up last week's Quinnipiac University poll. It shows Gingrich and Romney beating Obama by an identical, if tiny, one percent in Ohio. Gingrich isn't blowing Obama away in any polls. But he's doing well enough to suggest that Romney isn't, after all, the only Republican who could beat Obama.
Jun '10
Re: My Thoughts On Last Night's Debate. What're Yours?
The usual Democrat suspects have been putting out the word that they'd "love" to run against Newt. I don't believe that for a second.
They were planning to run against Wall Street Mitt (whether that's a fair characterization or not,) and now, if it's Newt Gingrich, first they have to pin Newt down to one stereotype--the only thing they know how to run against--and then they have to rhetorically overpower him. Good luck. They're scared of Newt. Running against someone they can't easily pin down to a stereotype (or just plain intimidate) scares them to death. They'd have to go back to the drawing board. And if they go after him personally, for his womanizing, they'd just be running against Bill Clinton with an R after his name.
Dec '11
Re: My Thoughts On Last Night's Debate. What're Yours?
I was too fascinated waiting to see if Diane Sawyer was going to break into projectile vomiting to pay much attention to the rest of it.
May '10
Re: My Thoughts On Last Night's Debate. What're Yours?
I thought the debate left a huge whole that Perry drove a pick-up right through. This is where money comes into play. Steadily improving and stellar last night, he provides a refuge from Newt "Oh God we can't possibly be doing this" Gingrich. That outlet is needed. Because we can't possibly be nominating Newt Gingrich.
And Perry can keep things open long enough to change the flavor of a particularly bad idea of a month. Mitt, I fear, is dying the death of a thousand cuts. I supported him as the conservative alternative to McCain and Huckabee, but, eh. Not sorry to see him go.
May '10
Re: My Thoughts On Last Night's Debate. What're Yours?
Newt's "in the zone", his mania being perfectly channeled, and if that continues, there isn't a doggone thing Mitt can do to save himself. It's all about Newt now.
Ironically, Newt-types are most likely to self-destruct once they're out of crisis. The letdown of the "battle having been won" leaves them wanting more and, often, inducing the next crisis. Think Patton looking over that battlefield thinking, "God, how I love it so", and then longing for WW III just as WW II ends.
A big, boring lead by the stimulation-craving Newt could be Romney's only hope.
May '10
Re: My Thoughts On Last Night's Debate. What're Yours?
I'd nominate Christine O'Donnell ahead of Newt. If we've just given up on winning, why not lose big?
Re: My Thoughts On Last Night's Debate. What're Yours?
Scott Reusser: Newt's "in the zone", his mania being perfectly channeled, and if that continues, there isn't a doggone thing Mitt can do to save himself. It's all about Newt now.
Ironically, Newt-types are most likely to self-destruct once they're out of crisis. The letdown of the "battle having been won" leaves them wanting more and, often, inducing the next crisis. Think Patton looking over that battlefield thinking, "God, how I love it so", and then longing for WW III just as WW II ends.
A big, boring lead by the stimulation-craving Newt could be Romney's only hope. · Dec 11 at 11:12am
Yup. I'd pretty much agree with every word of this.
May '11
Re: My Thoughts On Last Night's Debate. What're Yours?
It was a strange debate. Ron Paul almost seemed presidential (the scariest thing of all), Michelle Bachmann seemed to be able to focus her crazy eyes and smile at the same time, Santorum almost went a full hour without whining and Rick Perry completed a few sentences. Newt was Newt and Romney was Romney except when he wasn't, which was when he tried to say anything substantive about policy. I fear all of them will be voted off the island.
Re: My Thoughts On Last Night's Debate. What're Yours?
Scott Reusser: Newt's "in the zone", his mania being perfectly channeled, and if that continues, there isn't a doggone thing Mitt can do to save himself. It's all about Newt now.
Ironically, Newt-types are most likely to self-destruct once they're out of crisis. The letdown of the "battle having been won" leaves them wanting more and, often, inducing the next crisis. Think Patton looking over that battlefield thinking, "God, how I love it so", and then longing for WW III just as WW II ends.
A big, boring lead by the stimulation-craving Newt could be Romney's only hope. · Dec 11 at 11:12am
Your analysis may well be right.
Apr '11
Re: My Thoughts On Last Night's Debate. What're Yours?
They may have to go back to the drawing board, but the drawing board is filled with devastating material for that $700 million+ ad campaign. Fat southern republican, long paper and video trail of controversial statements, an angry attitude, sleazy marital history, etc. For Democrats, it's an all-you-can-eat buffet that never stops.
For me, this is like watching a horror movie where the main character just insists on going down into the dark, creepy basement. The Republican base is so possesed by magical thinking and (to take Ross Douthat's formulation) "conservative revenge fantasies" that probably nothing can be done about it now. It's too bad the country will have to suffer for it.
Re: My Thoughts On Last Night's Debate. What're Yours?
Peter, your take seems sound to me. Mitt Romney made a truly terrible blunder when he decided to stick with Romneycare and not reposition himself on the question. He would be in much better shape now -- if his theme were that he had rethought his earlier positions on a number of issues and if he had re-emerged as a limited-government conservative. Yes, he would been charged with flipping and flopping. The proper answer is that the only proof that one has a mind is that one changes it when faced with evidence contrary to one's expectations.
I do not think it over for Romney by any means. I still think it likely that he will be the nominee. But Gingrich has the advantage right now. And if he is genuinely deft, he may keep it.
I do not think the polls mean much at this point -- except those with regard to Obama himself. He is a known quantity, and people have formed fairly strong opinions. His opponents are far less well known, and opinion is fluid.
Re: My Thoughts On Last Night's Debate. What're Yours?
You know, you just might be onto something here. I doubt it, frankly--the polls indicate that most ordinary voters don't share the aversion to Newt that you (and Ross Douthat, Ramesh Ponnuru, George Will, and other pros) display. And then there's the question of time. Iowans will vote in less than a month now. But Perry performed darned well last night. And just take a gander this profile of Rick Perry in Vanity Fair. The author, Bryan Burrough, presents Perry in the worst light he can--but even at that you can feel that he ended up admiring the guy.
I'm not as anti-Newt as you, Kennedy. But if by some miracle Perry staged a comeback, I wouldn't be at all displeased.
Edited on December 11, 2011 at 8:34pmMar '11
Re: My Thoughts On Last Night's Debate. What're Yours?
I found the debate to be rather boring, and I think that is a good thing.
There have been enough debates for the electorate to get a good picture of how each candidate can argue their case. Last night's debate was an accurate reflection (except possibly for Perry's newfound eloquence) of all the previous ones.
Now it is time to look closer at criteria other than debating skill. I would encourage everyone who has not yet given up on Ross Douthat to read his latest column. Most important point: winning presidential debates does not translate into winning presidential elections, as John Kerry aptly demonstrated.
The debates have been useful tools this season, but I think they are starting to run their course.
Jul '10
Re: My Thoughts On Last Night's Debate. What're Yours?
Glenn Beck is so inflamed over Newt's rise that he is accusing him of being a white Obama, and suggesting that Tea Partiers supporting Newt but denouncing Obama are simply racist. The accusation comes from a deeply limited government place, his argument is that Newt is just another big government progressive, but he's put out a sound bite now that will serve as an evergreen for the drive by media and that no Tea Partier will appreciate.
I liked the part where her head spun like a top and she spewed pea soup.
Sep '10
Re: My Thoughts On Last Night's Debate. What're Yours?
I argue in the Member Feed that the $10,000 bet shows how flawed Romney is. In fact, if I had more time, I would have written a longer post and called it "None of the Above." None of the candidates on that stage--Newt included--have what it takes to defeat Obama. None.
If the GOP doesn't draft someone else--either now, or at the convention--it will lose.
Re: My Thoughts On Last Night's Debate. What're Yours?
Now that we've got you, Paul, when can we expect your full analysis of Newt? (I ain't fer nobody until I know who Paul's fer.)
Nov '10
Re: My Thoughts On Last Night's Debate. What're Yours?
Neils Bohr once attended a physics seminar in which a colleague proposed a radical new theory. Afterwards a friend asked, "Neils, everyone is saying this guy's theory is crazy. What do you think?"
Bohr nodded. "I agree that his theory is crazy. But not crazy enough to be true."
Newt is crazy. Running for the Republican campaign after crashing and burning on the moral front. Leaving behind the wreckage of a broken campaign team, who walked out on him at the start. Wearing the most outrageous statements on his sleeve and shooting from the hip in every discussion, not mincing words like politicians must, and laying out specific plans to take on Obama once nominated like nobody else.
I've begun to think he's crazy enough to be the one. Crazy may be what it will take. Romney, Bachmann and Perry are also crazy in their own ways, but I think not crazy enough to get the nod.
Romney's big mistake was the bet, but not because of the dollar amount, but because it was irredeemably childish. So much for his "presidential" patina.