My Advice to Turkey, For What it's Worth
We don't know yet whether the world is going through a worrying time or a true convulsion that will lead to a massive reordering of the international order. If the latter, we all know an immense amount of blood will be spilt before anything stable emerges again. I know that in America this can seem abstract, but sitting here in Istanbul, it feels very proximate and very real.
It's easy to be Apocalyptic given the collapse of Western economies and with them the prestige of the West and its values. You better believe that the rest of the world is looking at the West now and thinking, "Democracy? Independent judiciary? Freedom of the press? Doesn't seem to work."
I'm chilled by the news from Russia, predictable though it was. The Middle East is wildly unstable, and I suspect we're about to enter a period much like the Cold War, but with a new nuclear balance. Entirely likely the NPT will be torn up.
As for Turkey, all political power in Turkey is now consolidated in the hands of the AKP, and it's really all in Erdoğan's hands, with no rival power centers. It doesn't seem to me that there's much demand for democracy, as we think of it, in either Russia or Turkey. Elections, sure. But an internal balance of power? No, not really. The longing for a strong leader is greater by far. When naive nitwits write that there's nothing wrong with permanent one-party rule in Turkey, why, Japan has done just fine with it, I think, "Just wait for an earthquake here. Then you'll see the difference between Turkey and Japan."
The long-simmering conflict in the southeast of Turkey is a real war now, with heavy casualties reported daily. Every day, the Ergenenekon investigation expands: It sounds as if they're going to lock up another 355 officers. The KCK trial is also metastasizing; 368 people have been detained since September 12, including mayors and provincial heads, and I have no doubt the jurisprudential standards of this trial are as political and lamentable as the others.
Some people say it's the same as before, just different people in the maw. Some say it's better than before. Some say it's worse than before. I offer this as a small bit of anecdotal evidence: People used to be afraid to talk on the record about politics because of Article 301. Now they're afraid to talk on the record about politics because of Ergenekon. It's different people in the maw, I reckon.
I used to wonder why the United States didn't speak up about these trials--I'm certain we're well aware that they have nothing to do with rule of law, as Americans think of it. I've asked myself this question many times. My best guess is not that we're naive or on the side of the AKP. It's because there's no credible opposition. The CHP, MHP and fringe parties have been far more interested in defending their own small piece of the pie than in winning elections, and so have the people who don't find the AKP all that palatable. For all they scream about the danger posed to Turkey by the AKP, they don't act like it. "Acting like it" is not "sitting around cafes and bitching," and it's not "wearing a Che Guevara T-shirt" and it's not "sighing passively and saying it's hopeless." It is certainly not violence. It's thinking intelligently about winning elections, looking at what the AKP has done right to win them, and doing it yourself.
The opposition is so sunk in self-absorption, lunatic conspiracy theories, anti-Semitism, Leftist dogma and obliviousness to the world--and to the rest of Turkey--that it has rendered itself completely irrelevant. So I suppose the United States has come to the cynical but perhaps correct conclusion that if the Turkish people can't come up with anything better than the AKP, and don't seem to want to, we might as well not offend them, because they're here to stay. That's what we're going to be dealing with for a very long time, and we have bigger things to worry about. That's probably what everyone thinks, including Europe--not that there's such a thing as "Europe" these days.
I wrote this piece (in two parts) in 2008. All of it remains true, and should be kept in mind whenever you read about Turkey's "vibrant democracy." I also wrote this piece about Turkish foreign policy last year. I'm horrified to see exactly what I predicted playing out.
There are a lot of people here who do see this. They also see that the AKP's policy toward the Kurdish issue--genuinely existential for Turkey--has been disastrous. The people who didn't vote for the AKP (and remember, that's half the electorate) is demoralized. Well, I understand: The whole world's demoralized.
But let me give you some advice, not that I imagine you'll take it. The conspiracy theories get you nowhere. The obsession with Israel and the CIA is exactly why you're in this position. If you can't think straight, if you're not living in the real world, you're destined to obsolescence. There are seven million Israelis. They are not controlling everything. Simple math will suggest that this must be so. Stop blaming America for the rise of the AKP, for the PKK, for Ergenekon, for the Gülen movement. Use your God-given ability to reason, read and think to figure out that every one of these theories is illogical, and if you can't see that, why do you expect anyone in Turkey to see that the Ergenekon prosecutions are illogical? If you don't like the Gülen movement, figure out why other people do and offer them something better. You want liberal democracy? It starts at home. Literally, at home. The authoritarianism is built into the families, the political parties, everything. The antidote to authoritarianism is thinking for yourself. Getting a tattoo is not thinking for yourself.
The AKP came to power because they were organized, focused, and they learned how to win elections. They figured out how to say what Americans like to hear, and Americans don't think much about Turkey, so that was okay with them. America is busy, a point that seems to have evaded most people's notice, and it doesn't have a "Greater Middle East project," in fact, it hasn't got much of a strategy at all. The AKP will be in power until you embrace reality, and the reality is that it's not all a big conspiracy--it's a series of complex, contingent events. Learn to win an election, or else I have to helplessly concur with America's judgment: You're not all that interested in democracy, so you've got the government you deserve.
As for Turkish liberals who are still supporting the AKP, despite knowing perfectly well that it is not delivering anything liberal? Well, you rolled over easy, didn't you.
I reserve judgment on the question of whether liberal democracies can survive in the long term. Too soon to tell. But they had a real run of luck for a long time, and I wish them the best.
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Comments :
May '11
Re: My Advice to Turkey, For What it's Worth
Thanks for that Claire, I learn something each time I read your latest post.
The problems you bring into focus are very complex, I have to admit that I sometimes wonder if the normal situation for man is to be oppressed and ruled by a totalitarian government. Puts a strong light on the fact that the USA is the exception, not the rule.
BTW, I love this.....
..... I think that because I don't smoke, drink too much, love my wife and kids, nor do I have any tattoos that I'm the rebel.
Domo
Feb '11
Re: My Advice to Turkey, For What it's Worth
So at what point does the Turkish government make life uncomfortable for foreign press people. Surely you see that on the horizon.
Mar '11
Re: My Advice to Turkey, For What it's Worth
"I reserve judgment on the question of whether liberal democracies can survive in the long term. Too soon to tell. But they had a real run of luck for a long time, and I wish them the best."
Always a friend, never a flatterer.
Oct '10
Re: My Advice to Turkey, For What it's Worth
this all feels very familiar. Claire is right about having a credible opposition. but what if most of the potential opposition leaders are in jail?
Re: My Advice to Turkey, For What it's Worth
If it's that easy to intimidate Western journalists, the West deserves whatever it gets.
Re: My Advice to Turkey, For What it's Worth
They're not. They're just incompetent.
Jan '11
Re: My Advice to Turkey, For What it's Worth
A cri de coeur written with passion and reason - not often combined, but here it is.
I wish I could believe that your advice will be taken, or even considered, but I am among a growing number of people who have come to believe that, in distress, the dominating human imperative, to act rather than think, is common, and, sad to say, in this regard you are obviously in the minority.
If reason is not persuasive, what than will most likely motivate the crowd? Mark Steyn has addressed that case rather well, I think.
Feb '11
Re: My Advice to Turkey, For What it's Worth
Claire, you seem to asking the non-AKP people to wake up, wise up and work together. If that near-miracle occurs, it won't affect things in the near term. So the rest of us are left with how to deal with Erdogan's demagogic stirring up of the Middle East masses to war on Israel, defy the EU and ignore the positions of the USA. He can easily start a bonfire by accident. As you observed some time ago, Erdogan is "playing with fire."