Diane Ellis, Ed. · Dec 15, 2010 at 6:06pm

This is happening 10 miles south of the U.S. border in Juárez:

Now as Christmas approaches, mobsters have chosen a new target, turning their sights on humble schoolteachers.

Painted threats scrawled outside numerous public schools demand that teachers hand over their Christmas bonuses or face the possibility of an armed attack on the teachers—and even the children.

To make the point clear, assailants set fire to a federal preschool in the San Antonio district a week ago, leaving the director's office in smoldering ruins.

Scribbled on the wall in gold paint was the reason: "For not paying."

The targeting of teachers in Juarez's 1,270 preschool, primary and secondary schools is a sign of the depravity that rules in a city whose name has become synonymous with homicide.

Gangs already have shaken down other parts of the municipal social fabric—doctors, dentists and even ambulance drivers.

Now with the targets being teachers, parents have pulled thousands of children from schools where heightened security already had turned them into seeming prisons, enclosed with coils of barbed wire atop concrete walls.

Three schools have closed for fear they might come under armed attack. "We are scared," admitted Maria de Jesus Casio, principal of the Ramon Lopez Velarde Elementary School. But she also said teachers don't want to pay. "Teachers don't have much money. The salaries are just enough for survival."

Teachers in this city earn an average of $650 a month. Christmas bonuses vary but the average is about a month's pay.

Casio, 53, a veteran teacher with close-cropped reddish hair, said teachers arrived at school one day in late November to find this graffito painted on the outside wall:
"For the well-being of everyone, and the children, pay 50,000 pesos."

That same day, assistant principal Jorge Alberto Palacios said that he found a notice on his pick-up truck that "talked about a massacre of children" and indicated where to drop the money.

A third message came in a school telephone bill. The threats arrived at a dozen schools, perhaps more, according to news reports, though a senior school official would speak only in general terms.

Mexican President Felipe Calderon maintains that the federal government has control over the entire country -- a laughable assertion indeed, if the situation were not so darned serious. 

Anyone care to venture a prediction as to what will happen with Mexico in 2011?  Does the situation simply continue to get worse?  Or does the mayhem become so intolerable that the United States government intervenes?

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Kenneth
Joined
Jul '10
Kenneth

In the United States, it's the other way around.  The teacher's unions extort the populace.

Edited on Dec 15, 2010 at 6:09pm
anon_academic
Joined
Aug '10
anon_academic

Interesting issue in light of the frequent discussions here on Ricochet about whether drug legalization would solve crime. Mind you, I'm not necessarily saying that if we had legalization every narco in Mexico would switch to shaking down school teachers rather than hang up his spurs, but it is interesting.

Also, Kenneth, I don't feel right picking on Mexican school teachers at a moment when they are being threatened by gangsters, but the Mexican public school teachers make Randy Weingarten look like Milton Friedman. Most notoriously, being a school teacher is hereditary. That's right -- tenure that extends beyond a single lifetime.

Kenneth
Joined
Jul '10
Kenneth

anon_academic:

Also, Kenneth, I don't feel right picking on Mexican school teachers at a moment when they are being threatened by gangsters, but the Mexican public school teachers make Randy Weingarten look like Milton Friedman. Most notoriously, being a school teacher is hereditary. That's right -- tenure that extends beyond a single lifetime. · Dec 15 at 6:34pm

Kind of like being the kid of a black Congressman in a gerrymandered district, huh?

Misthiocracy
Joined
Aug '10
Misthiocracy

One detail really stuck out for me.

It's bad enough that the gangsters are burning down day care centres, but the building was described as a "federal day care centre".

Is it a good idea for a federal government to run day care centres? That's not really the point.  That's Mexico's business to decide, not mine.

What jumps out at me is:

  1. The gangsters are not afraid of attacking federal government buildings.
  2. The federal government is unable to defend its own buildings.

Yikes.

Jason Hart
Joined
May '10
Jason Hart
Diane Ellis, Ed.: Anyone care to venture a prediction as to what will happen with Mexico in 2011?  Does the situation simply continue to get worse?  Or does the mayhem become so intolerable that the United States government intervenes? ·

Given the lengths to which our "leaders" will go to avoid securing the southern border, I have trouble imagining a scenario where the US government does more than throw money at Mexico. But, maybe in 2011 the US government will stop throwing money at every problem and then do something responsible about Mexico. Followed by a reasonable corporate tax rate, and steam-powered flying cars for all!

Lady Kurobara
Joined
Nov '10
Lady Kurobara
Diane Ellis, Ed.:  Anyone care to venture a prediction as to what will happen with Mexico in 2011?  Does the situation simply continue to get worse?  Or does the mayhem become so intolerable that the United States government intervenes?

The situation is already intolerable, and things are definitely going to get worse.  It is clear that Mexico is now a failed state, with no real internal security, and that it is rapidly becoming a grave threat to our southern border.  The only rational response to the chaos is a US military intervention, but it is also clear that no one in Washington even wants to think about opening a third front in a neighboring country.  Things will have to get a lot, lot worse before they consider that option.

In retrospect, it would have been better (for everyone) if, during the early 19th Century, the US had simply invaded and annexed all of Mexico and Central America.  That would have given us a conveniently tiny southern border with Colombia, and the Panama Canal would be securely in our hands, Jimmy Carter notwithstanding.

Personally, I am watching Mexico with something akin to morbid fascination.  We live in interesting times, indeed...

 

Kervinlee
Joined
May '10
Kervinlee

This is a nightmare that we will not awaken from for a long time, and I'm afraid we haven't yet seen the worst.

I can't imagine anything being improved by a US intervention. Don't we already have our hands full with our other interventions?

I predict that this crisis will lead to the opening of a massive aid pipeline that will sluice countless borrowed dollars to the government of Mexico, ostensibly to render aid in fighting the gangsters. The gangsters will remain unvanquished, and the money will never be seen again, except in the offshore bank accounts of the top dogs of the Mexican government.

Jimmy Carter
Joined
Jul '10
Jimmy Carter

"Or does the mayhem become so intolerable that the United States government intervenes?"

Please. Our government already has..... it has sued Arizona. Which side do You think Our government is on?

Our federal government has provided cover for all of them by leaving Our border open. And trying to legalize all of them to boot. 

Aaron Miller
Joined
May '10
Aaron Miller

Threatening the children isn't new. I recall one report of a cartel lining the bodies of a rival gang in front a school parking lot.

And the problem's not just on the Mexican side of the border:

As violence continued Thursday with a highway shootout in Tamaulipas, a Senate subcommittee in Washington heard testimony that drug cartels are trying to infiltrate U.S. agencies along the border, with corruption cases among Homeland Security personnel on the rise.

In the past two years, there have been 400 public corruption cases involving federal, state and local law enforcement agents originating from the Southwest border region, Kevin Perkins, FBI assistant director for criminal investigations, told the Senate Homeland Security subcommittee on preparedness.

James Tomsheck, a U.S. Customs and Border Protection assistant commissioner, told the panel the drug cartels operating in Mexico are making a concerted effort to infiltrate CBP, and the agency is responding with more screening of job applicants with polygraph tests and background investigations. Corruption cases were opened last year on 576 CBP officers and Border Patrol agents.

Mike LaRoche
Joined
Oct '10
Mike LaRoche
Diane Ellis, Ed.: Anyone care to venture a prediction as to what will happen with Mexico in 2011?  Does the situation simply continue to get worse?  Or does the mayhem become so intolerable that the United States government intervenes? ·

I can't venture to predict what will happen in Mexico, but I can predict that even with the new Republican House majority taking office next month, there will be little to no change in the federal government's approach to the growing chaos on the border.

To but it bluntly, most federal officials (even some of those Senators and Representatives from border states and districts) don't give a damn about what happens to ordinary Americans living on the border.  It simply is not their problem.  And that is not mere conjecture on my part.  I have seen such callous disregard first-hand.

Stuart Creque
Joined
Dec '10
Stuart Creque
Diane Ellis, Ed.: Anyone care to venture a prediction as to what will happen with Mexico in 2011?  Does the situation simply continue to get worse?  Or does the mayhem become so intolerable that the United States government intervenes? ·

Unfortunately, we can no longer call on Yul Brynner, Steven McQueen, James Coburn, Charles Bronson, Robert Vaughn, Brad Dexter or even Horst Buchholz.

If the United States government were to intervene, would Mexico's government welcome the help or resist the encroachment on Mexican sovereignty?

Lady Kurobara
Joined
Nov '10
Lady Kurobara

Stuart Creque

 

If the United States government were to intervene, would Mexico's government welcome the help or resist the encroachment on Mexican sovereignty?

They would squawk like scalded hens, of course, and probably send the regular army against us.  Such an intervention would be pointless if we did not intend to overthrow the Mexican government — which is hopelessly corrupt. 

Stuart Creque

 

Unfortunately, we can no longer call on Yul Brynner, Steven McQueen, James Coburn, Charles Bronson, Robert Vaughn, Brad Dexter or even Horst Buchholz.

You have stimulated my imagination.  Here is an interesting future scenario:

American citizens continue to be massacred by drug gangs while Washington sits on its hands.  Out of sheer desperation, Texas, Arizona and New Mexico pool their resources and hire a Blackwater-type mercenary force to make "pacifying raids" into Mexico.

Too far-fetched?  I would love to see them do it, if only to watch Washington throw a screaming fit about it.

Joseph Eagar
Joined
Oct '10
Joseph Eagar

We'll either see intense border crackdowns or a Mexican intervention next year, I suspect.

Stuart Creque
Joined
Dec '10
Stuart Creque

Lady Kurobara

You have stimulated my imagination.  Here is an interesting future scenario:

American citizens continue to be massacred by drug gangs while Washington sits on its hands.  Out of sheer desperation, Texas, Arizona and New Mexico pool their resources and hire a Blackwater-type mercenary force to make "pacifying raids" into Mexico.

Too far-fetched?  I would love to see them do it, if only to watch Washington throw a screaming fit about it. · Dec 15 at 10:31pm

Better: a Mexican town is ravaged by a drug gang.  THEY pool their meager resources and hire a mercenary force to make a "pacifying raid" into Mexico.  But because the money on offer is so paltry, only seven of the security forces' personnel accept the mission....

Hey, don't knock it: it's the decade of the remake!

flownover
Joined
Aug '10
flownover

Let's outfit Richard Trumka with a battalion of fully vested senior teachers and administrators from California or New Jersey, a company of stewards, a platoon of lawyers, a squad of congressmen ,and a partridge in a pear tree.

Plus arms, booze,some motivational speakers, Joe Biden, and Barbara Boxer.

They will have the problem cleared up by Spring Break.

( a close look at my avatar is an example of what they're facing)

Edited on Dec 15, 2010 at 11:32pm

Joined
May '10
Steve MacDonald

 The situation in Mexico closely resembles Peru in the dark days of the Sendero Luminoso and MRTA, or Columbia when the cartels and FARC dominated massive amounts of the country. Both were solved or greatly improved by tough SOBs taking control of the govt. and literally going to war - and not the gentile kind. I don't think Calderon has the ability to do the same. I do not believe that the USA will/can successfuly intervene however. The Mexicans have a saying: Pobre Mexico, tan lejos de Dios y tan cerca de Los Estados Unidos - Poor Mexico, so far from God and so close to the USA. In the eqrthquake of 1985 they accepted aid from all over the world - but not the states. Relationships have improved but I can not see Mexico accepting active military presence from the states.

John Marzan
Joined
Oct '10
John Marzan

Mexican President Felipe Calderon maintains that the federal government has control over the entire country -- a laughable assertion indeed, if the situation were not so darned serious.

Anyone care to venture a prediction as to what will happen with Mexico in 2011?  Does the situation simply continue to get worse?  Or does the mayhem become so intolerable that the United States government intervenes?

Will the violence help the opposition party PRI regain it's power in 2012? One scary thought is that the next president might be a puppet of the drug cartels.


Joined
May '10
Steve MacDonald

 What Mexico will need to restore a semblance of what passes for order there, is a really tough dude that is willing to do whatever it takes to clean up the mess. Western PC sensibilities need not apply & at this stage, political party doesn't matter. Folks down there are used to elevated levels of disorder & lawlessness (the police used to be the most dangerous crooks) but the situation is getting a lot higher than tolerable. Parts of the north are turning into a war zone and you have dozens of dead guys turning up in places like Acapulco and Cuernavaca. A good freind of mine who has lived in DF all of his 80+ years, recently moved to San Luis Potosi just to get away from the chaos.

I suspect it will get a lot worse before it gets better. One of the problems in a society built on systemic corruption is that when you face a well financed internal crisis like this, who do you trust? Who won't be bought?

Squishy Blue RINO
Joined
Aug '10
Louie Mungaray

Aaron Miller: Threatening the children isn't new. I recall one report of a cartel lining the bodies of a rival gang in front a school parking lot.

And the problem's not just on the Mexican side of the border:

As violence continued ... corruption cases among Homeland Security personnel on the rise.

In the past two years, there have been 400 public corruption cases involving federal, state and local law enforcement agents originating from the Southwest border region, Kevin Perkins, FBI assistant director for criminal investigations, told the Senate Homeland Security subcommittee on preparedness.

James Tomsheck, a U.S. Customs and Border Protection assistant commissioner, told the panel the drug cartels operating in Mexico are making a concerted effort to infiltrate CBP, and the agency is responding with more screening of job applicants with polygraph tests and background investigations. Corruption cases were opened last year on 576 CBP officers and Border Patrol agents.

Dec 15 at 7:50pm

Re: corruption, these numbers are counting cases, no telling how much goes undetected..

These numbers are with a porous border, these will skyrocket with a secure border.

What a mess.

Michael Horn
Joined
Dec '10
Michael Horn
Anyone care to venture a prediction as to what will happen with Mexico in 2011?  Does the situation simply continue to get worse?  Or does the mayhem become so intolerable that the United States government intervenes? ·

Hypothetically speaking, if Mexico were to become a failed state, is this something that America would be able to isolate itself from? Even if we had a secure border? 

Is having a failed narco-state on our southern border something that America can reasonably live with, or would we be dragged in simply because of our proximity? It seems that a stable Mexico would be in America's interest.

What do you all think? Is it in American interests so ensure the survival of the Mexican government?


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