Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
In the GOP nomination fight, Mitt Romney’s viability has been considered almost a foregone conclusion. Columnists such as David Brooks, Ann Coulter and David Frum have touted Romney as the only candidate capable of unseating Obama. Even Romney’s more conservative supporters have usually relied on Romney’s electability to win supporters away from more conservative alternatives. However, Romney’s electability is not as certain as it seems. For one, Romney has not been able to win a large amount of support within his own party. Despite hitting the campaign trail well before his opponents, Romney’s support still hovers at 25%. For all of his efforts, Romney’s nomination is still opposed by 75% of his own party, not a great number for a candidate who is supposed to unite his party come general election time and hardly proof positive that he has the nomination locked up.
Romney’s supporters usually argue that Mitt is the only candidate capable of winning over Independents and beating Obama in the general election. Romney does have good poll numbers against Obama in a hypothetical general election match-up. Unfortunately, such polls this early are usually meaningless. In January of 2008, John McCain was leading Barack Obama by as much as 12 points in a hypothetical match-up. Early polling in 2004 showed John Kerry ahead of George W. Bush by as much as 7. Furthermore, the idea that more liberal Republicans can win over Independents better than conservative Republicans is empirically denied. The Tea Party influenced GOP won 55% of moderate votes in 2010. The GOP only earned the support of 43% of Independents when the “electable” John McCain was running in 2008. In swing states, Tea Party candidates do very well among self described Independent/Other voters. In 2010, Tea Party candidates in the swing states of Florida, Colorado, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio captured a majority of self-described Independent/Other votes. In Florida, conservative Tea Partier Marco Rubio trounced liberal Republican turned Independent Charlie Crist among Independents 51% to 38%. The equation that moderate Republican=Independent support simply does not add up.
The biggest problem I see with Romney’s supposed electability is his inability to fire up the conservative base of the party. If the base decides it won’t knock on doors or make phone calls for Romney, he will have a very hard time getting elected. Worse, if the base flat out refuses to vote for Romney like it did in for McCain, Romney won’t stand a chance. Maybe this won’t happen and Romney could still win. Unfortunately, counting on the base to hold their nose didn’t work for John Kerry in 2004, it didn’t work for John McCain in 2008. Can it work for Mitt Romney in 2012?
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Comments:
Jul '10
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Ken Sweeney
All politicians are phonies. · Jan 2 at 8:30pm
Thatcher. Phony. Reagan. Phony. Stalin. Phony. Lenin. Phony. Hitler. Phony. Walesa. Phony. Bin Laden. Phony. Churchill. Phony. Cornwallis. Phony. Wellesley. Phony. Peel. Phony. Jefferson. Phony. Washington. Phony.
Do you care to reassess your statement?
Dec '11
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Michael Tee
EThompson
Michael Tee:
Who cares if you drive off the cliff at 200 or 20 mph? As Mark Steyn pointed out this unsustainable debt will cause "Mad Max on I-95" in ten, twenty or thirty years. I'd rather it happen sooner rather than later. Then we can rebuild.
Perhaps you do not own an established business or a stock portfolio? ·
There are bigger issues in America than my stock portfolio... Because I find in my experience that there are causes greater than my own self.
Karl Marx couldn't have said it more astutely (oh wait- he did!)
A true conservative knows there is nothing more important than the property and prosperity of the individual.
Oct '10
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Michael Tee
Ken Sweeney
All politicians are phonies. · Jan 2 at 8:30pm
Thatcher. Phony. Reagan. Phony. Stalin. Phony. Lenin. Phony. Hitler. Phony. Walesa. Phony. Bin Laden. Phony. Churchill. Phony. Cornwallis. Phony. Wellesley. Phony. Peel. Phony. Jefferson. Phony. Washington. Phony.
Do you care to reassess your statement? · Jan 2 at 8:44pm
I spent a few moments on the google machine to reassess my statement. And I stand by it.
Thatcher: her accent was phony (per Claire Berlinski)
http://www.berlinski.com/?q=node/165
Reagan and his opposition to the Panama Canal treaty = Phony
All politicians dissemble and spin on certain issues to get the results they want. That was my only point.
Jan '11
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Frozen Chosen: I
"Romney's nomination is not opposed by 75% of Republicans..." Right, they just strongly prefer someone, anyone, else.
"When polls showed Mccain [sic] leading Obama by 12 pts in January 2008 Obama was a candidate and not the president. Worse, actually, if one considers Obama's performance as president. McCain's lead would have been even greater under those circumstances.
"Comparing independent vote totals from 2008 to 2010 is truly comparing apples to oranges as the circumstances of those elections were completely different." op cit.
"John Mccain [sic] - not exactly a conservative's dream - had no problem firing up the base in 2008 when it came to voting. He received a higher number of conservative votes than any previous GOP candidate so the whole 'firing up the base' meme is a real canard." You ignore the enormous Palin influence, which is convenient for your argument, but not up to high school term paper quality.
"Better luck next time, young man!" As a general rule, if one is going to lord it over someone, it's prudent to do so without embarrassing oneself by offering up silly arguments.
Edited on Jan 02 at 07:57 pm
Dec '11
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Since when do 'safe' candidates when elections? 'Safe' candidates are losers for both parties.
Feb '11
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Ken Sweeney:
Remember 2008 when all of the other Republican candidates hated Romney because of his bare knuckle campaign commercials?
No, I remember 2008 because Romney and his pals couldn't stop whining about the media focus on his religion. I'm sure we'll hear them singing that same song again just as soon as Romney wins the nomination, because I'm sure the media will pick up right where they left off back then.
Plus, one thing I've never doubted about Romney is his willingness to wage bare-knuckled attacks on members of his own party. I fully expect that to continue, and it's one reason why I think he'll shatter the GOP into shards.
What I absolutely do not expect is that Romney will unleash any sort of bare-knuckled attack on Obama or his party.
Know why I think that? Because none of the recent GOP candidates would make any sort of meaningful attack on the democrats. And on occasions when opportunity arose for Romney to hit Obama on at least one occasion he stepped up to defend him.
Pitiful.
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
In 2004, the Democrats thought the same thing about George W. Bush.
May '10
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
It actually almost did. That election should never have been close; I work at a public university, where Howard Dean was the enthusiasm candidate, and the lefty Base was keening all over the place just before Iowa in 2004, promising to sit it out, etc. I venture to guess that almost none of them not only didn't sit it out, they were out in droves campaiging and voting over and over again.
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
1. The early polls showing Romney leading Obama are meaningless.
2. Romney has been campaigning for a year and still has failed to earn the support of 75% of his own party.
3. I never argue that Romney is hopeless. Rather, I think his electability is not guaranteed and he has serious problems that need to be considered before he's dubbed the electable candidate.
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
To answer your first question, the difference is that Romney isn't the only thing standing between John McCain and the nomination. The conservative support for Romney in 2008 was largely a last ditch effort to prevent McCain from winning once Giuliani, Thompson and Huckabee fell by the wayside.
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Duane Oyen
It actually almost did.
Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. Kerry couldn't beat an unpopular incumbent who had the media campaigning against him. Also, relying on the base holding their nose certainly didn't work for John McCain.
May '10
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Ian Hanchett
Rather, I think his electability is not guaranteed and he has serious problems that need to be considered before he's dubbed the electable candidate. · Jan 3 at 10:08am
Ian, true, it's not guaranteed. We Romney guys argue only that he's a better bet than candidate x (insert Gingrich, Santorum, Perry, Bachmann, etc). Note there are few who argue against Romney's electability by comparing it to a named candidate x's electability. Pick one. It's tough to do.
Similarly, it's easy to regard Kerry, say, as manifestly a bad choice for Dems in 2004. But who was better? Dean? Edwards? Likely, Kerry was their best bet. He lost a pretty close race, afterall, in a year that was tougher for Dems than, hopefully, 2012 will be for us.
Dec '11
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Xennady
Ken Sweeney:
Remember 2008 when all of the other Republican candidates hated Romney because of his bare knuckle campaign commercials?
No, I remember 2008 because Romney and his pals couldn't stop whining about the media focus on his religion. I'm sure we'll hear them singing that same song again just as soon as Romney wins the nomination, because I'm sure the media will pick up right where they left off back then.
Plus, one thing I've never doubted about Romney is his willingness to wage bare-knuckled attacks on members of his own party. I fully expect that to continue, and it's one reason why I think he'll shatter the GOP into shards.
What I absolutely do not expect is that Romney will unleash any sort of bare-knuckled attack on Obama or his party.
Know why I think that? Because none of the recent GOP candidates would make any sort of meaningful attack on the democrats. And on occasions when opportunity arose for Romney to hit Obama on at least one occasion he stepped up to defend him.
Pitiful.
This is what turned me off about Romney in 2008.
Mar '11
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Ian Hanchett
1. The early polls showing Romney leading Obama are meaningless.
2. Romney has been campaigning for a year and still has failed to earn the support of 75% of his own party.
3. I never argue that Romney is hopeless. Rather, I think his electability is not guaranteed and he has serious problems that need to be considered before he's dubbed the electable candidate. · Jan 3 at 10:08am
1. The early polls are certainly not conclusive but neither are they "meaningless."
2. And who else has the support of 100% of the party which seems to be your threshold? For that matter, who else beats him? When you have 7 candidates in the field it would be amazing for anyone to have a majority.
3. Nothing is guaranteed and which candidate does not have "serious" problems?
Edited on January 3, 2012 at 7:39pmMay '10
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Ian Hanchett
Also, relying on the base holding their nose certainly didn't work for John McCain. · Jan 3 at 10:34am
Every star in the universe was aligned against Republicans in 2008. I'm no McCain fan, but who would've done better? Thompson? Giuliani? Huckabee? Romney? (Ya, maybe Romney) Pick one and make a case. (And btw it was independents and soft Republicans who abandoned McCain/Palin, much more so than conservatives.)
Edited on January 3, 2012 at 7:47pmDec '11
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
(And btw it was independents and soft Republicans who abandoned McCain/Palin, much more so than conservatives.)
Do you have the slightest smidgeon of proof for that assertion?
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Frozen Chosen -
Anon made excellent points, to which I add the following:
“When polls showed Mccain leading Obama by 12 pts in January 2008 Obama was a candidate and not the president. Romney's 6% lead over President Obama is much more significant than leading candidate Obama.”
In my post, I also give the example of President Bush losing by 7 points to John Kerry in early 2004. Those early polls were not a good indicator of the final result and there's no reason to believe early polls will bear any resemblance to the final result this time.
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Part 2 of 3 of my response to Frozen Chosen:
“Comparing independent vote totals from 2008 to 2010 is truly comparing apples to oranges as the circumstances of those elections were completely different.”
You're right - the circumstances were different. In 2008, Republicans nominated a moderate and he failed to garner Independent support. In 2010, with Barack Obama in the White House, the Republicans ran far more conservative candidates and earned more Independent votes. Look to my example in Florida. With Barack Obama in the White House and the election boiling down to Obama’s policies vs. the Republican alternative, Independent voters in a crucial swing state overwhelmingly chose a conservative Republican over a moderate Republican. If all a liberal Republican needed to win Independent support is a liberal president to campaign against, Charlie Crist would be a Senator.
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
RE: Frozen Chosen Part 3 of 3:
“John Mccain - not exactly a conservative's dream - had no problem firing up the base in 2008 when it came to voting. He received a higher number of conservative votes than any previous GOP candidate so the whole "firing up the base" meme is a real canard.”
McCain only received a higher number because more people voted in 2008 than voted in the previous elections. Going by percentage McCain only garnered 78% of conservative votes. By comparison, George W. Bush won 84% of conservatives in 2004 and 81% in 2000. That means more conservatives voted AGAINST McCain than any previous GOP candidate in a two way race. The only Republican candidates since the '80s who received a lower percentage of the conservative vote than McCain had third party challengers who ate up conservative votes.
Aug '10
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Ian Hanchett: RE: Frozen Chosen Part 3 of 3:
“John Mccain - not exactly a conservative's dream - had no problem firing up the base in 2008 when it came to voting. He received a higher number of conservative votes than any previous GOP candidate so the whole "firing up the base" meme is a real canard.”
McCain only received a higher number because more people voted in 2008 than voted in the previous elections. Going by percentage McCain only garnered 78% of conservative votes. By comparison, George W. Bush won 84% of conservatives in 2004 and 81% in 2000. That means more conservatives voted AGAINST McCain than any previous GOP candidate in a two way race. The only Republican candidates since the '80s who received a lower percentage of the conservative vote than McCain had third party challengers who ate up conservative votes. · Jan 3 at 12:50pm
Are you saying more conservatives voted for Obama in 2008? Where did that other 22% go? Are you implying they stayed home because that would be impossible to measure.