Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
In the GOP nomination fight, Mitt Romney’s viability has been considered almost a foregone conclusion. Columnists such as David Brooks, Ann Coulter and David Frum have touted Romney as the only candidate capable of unseating Obama. Even Romney’s more conservative supporters have usually relied on Romney’s electability to win supporters away from more conservative alternatives. However, Romney’s electability is not as certain as it seems. For one, Romney has not been able to win a large amount of support within his own party. Despite hitting the campaign trail well before his opponents, Romney’s support still hovers at 25%. For all of his efforts, Romney’s nomination is still opposed by 75% of his own party, not a great number for a candidate who is supposed to unite his party come general election time and hardly proof positive that he has the nomination locked up.
Romney’s supporters usually argue that Mitt is the only candidate capable of winning over Independents and beating Obama in the general election. Romney does have good poll numbers against Obama in a hypothetical general election match-up. Unfortunately, such polls this early are usually meaningless. In January of 2008, John McCain was leading Barack Obama by as much as 12 points in a hypothetical match-up. Early polling in 2004 showed John Kerry ahead of George W. Bush by as much as 7. Furthermore, the idea that more liberal Republicans can win over Independents better than conservative Republicans is empirically denied. The Tea Party influenced GOP won 55% of moderate votes in 2010. The GOP only earned the support of 43% of Independents when the “electable” John McCain was running in 2008. In swing states, Tea Party candidates do very well among self described Independent/Other voters. In 2010, Tea Party candidates in the swing states of Florida, Colorado, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio captured a majority of self-described Independent/Other votes. In Florida, conservative Tea Partier Marco Rubio trounced liberal Republican turned Independent Charlie Crist among Independents 51% to 38%. The equation that moderate Republican=Independent support simply does not add up.
The biggest problem I see with Romney’s supposed electability is his inability to fire up the conservative base of the party. If the base decides it won’t knock on doors or make phone calls for Romney, he will have a very hard time getting elected. Worse, if the base flat out refuses to vote for Romney like it did in for McCain, Romney won’t stand a chance. Maybe this won’t happen and Romney could still win. Unfortunately, counting on the base to hold their nose didn’t work for John Kerry in 2004, it didn’t work for John McCain in 2008. Can it work for Mitt Romney in 2012?
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Comments:
Apr '11
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Michael Tee: This explains a lot. Read it, and weep.
I know plenty of people who sit out if Romney is the nominee.
ETA: Who cares if you drive off the cliff at 200 or 20 mph? As Mark Steyn pointed out this unsustainable debt will cause "Mad Max on I-95" in ten, twenty or thirty years. I'd rather it happen sooner rather than later. Then we can rebuild. · Jan 2 at 4:51pm
Edited on Jan 02 at 04:53 pm
Where does he get the impression that 80% oppose Paul and Romney? I can't say that I followed the article's logic at all. A divided electorate doesn't necessarily mean that everyone is furious.
Regarding driving off a cliff; while I have no experience of having done so, I'd imagine if you're near the cliff edge and trying to avoid going over it, it makes a pretty big difference whether you were going at 20mph or 200.
Working in Iraq, and studying Iraqi history has told me that having a disaster does not mean that things will get better after the disaster. Sometimes it just weakens you for the next and subsequent.
Jan '11
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Anon
In any case, he's loosing in his own party...
Then who, may I ask, is winning it? We've a string of Not-Romney who has sprinted ahead only to fall back almost as quickly. I still think Governor Huntsman is the best alternative and that he might stick if only he can get some attention, but Romney seems the one Republican the party has expressed a consistent interest in.
Anon
...[A]nd, if nominated, he'll lose in the general election.
Well, I'm not so sure. Against him he's got a dull personality, a "flexible" set of principles, and the fact that he's Mormon. In his favor, he's got a good track record as a manager and turn-around artist, a clean personal life that has already been vetted, and a country who is really, really disappointed with the incumbent. I'll confess it's uninspiring, but -- in comparison with Bachmann, Gingrich, Santorum, and (unfortunately) Perry -- he strikes me as pretty electable.
Mar '11
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
So many of these posts make zero sense to me. Romney is the only candidate that polls at or above Obama. Romney has been the only one to consistently garner significant support among Republicans during the run-up to the primaries. Romney consistently polls as the most electable by Republicans voters. Romney is usually the highest or near the top in like-ability and integrity by voters. And what does this lead the astute observer to conclude: he's unelectable and disliked by voters. There is a ton of projection going on here.
Mar '11
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Tom Meyer
In his favor, he's got a good track record as a manager and turn-around artist...
That's funny. His support hasn't really increased despite all the time and effort he's put into the quest for the nomination. I could have sworn what his campaign needs is a turnaround artist.
And no, I don't really have any idea which of the current competition would be any better. Obama may very well figure out a way to "wag the dog" before November, and if he does, Mitt might as well change his name to Bob Dole Jr.
Apr '11
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Percival
Tom Meyer
In his favor, he's got a good track record as a manager and turn-around artist...
That's funny. His support hasn't really increased despite all the time and effort he's put into the quest for the nomination. I could have sworn what his campaign needs is a turnaround artist.
And no, I don't really have any idea which of the current competition would be any better. Obama may very well figure out a way to "wag the dog" before November, and if he does, Mitt might as well change his name to Bob Dole Jr. · Jan 2 at 5:27pm
One of the things that's important in being a good turnaround artist, rather than simply a manager of companies in crisis, is that you know what not to fix. He's the prohibitive favorite to win the nomination right now. If he changed things, he'd run a substantial risk of losing this, without any apparent upside. He's ahead, but not far ahead, on general election match-ups, but has a tremendous enthusiasm gap supporting him. What sort of turnaround would help (other than the short sighted "repudiate MassCare")?
Dec '11
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Not to mention an utter lack of respect for the financial acumen of this candidate. Perhaps folks are under the delusion that this country can continue to survive under the helm of fiscal ingenues...
Michael Tee:
Who cares if you drive off the cliff at 200 or 20 mph? As Mark Steyn pointed out this unsustainable debt will cause "Mad Max on I-95" in ten, twenty or thirty years. I'd rather it happen sooner rather than later. Then we can rebuild.
Perhaps you do not own an established business or a stock portfolio?
Oct '10
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
as long as romney gets all the anti-obama votes, then he could win. if there's a major third party candidate, romney and that guy splits the anti-obama vote.
Mar '11
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
James Of England
One of the things that's important in being a good turnaround artist, rather than simply a manager of companies in crisis, is that you know what not to fix. He's the prohibitive favorite to win the nomination right now. If he changed things, he'd run a substantial risk of losing this, without any apparent upside. He's ahead, but not far ahead, on general election match-ups, but has a tremendous enthusiasm gap supporting him. What sort of turnaround would help (other than the short sighted "repudiate MassCare")? · Jan 2 at 5:32pm
So now I have to be the turnaround artist?
Look, it doesn't matter what I or anyone else says. He's the "prohibitive favorite" and will undoubtedly win without any problems. Therefore, I don't need to make any donations, or stuff any envelopes, or anything else, really. Just vote, like the good little conservative I am. The donations and envelope-stuffing will be handled by all the waves and waves of committed independents flocking to the Romney banner.
Oct '10
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Scott Reusser
Anon
In any case, he's loosing in his own party...
Who's winning? · Jan 2 at 4:53pm
So far, a guy named Anybody But Romney. He may, however, be on his last legs.
May '10
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Paul A. Rahe
Scott Reusser
Anon
In any case, he's loosing in his own party...
Who's winning? · Jan 2 at 4:53pm
So far, a guy named Anybody But Romney. He may, however, be on his last legs. · Jan 2 at 7:34pm
Plus he didn't make the Virginia ballot. Or any ballot.
May '10
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Gee, what will all you people do when Romney wins the nomination and Presidency? I think the silence here will be the fourth best thing about that happening (second and third best will be the suicides by Paulbots and HotAir.com commenters...)
Aug '10
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Ian,
I haven't read any of your other articles for Ricochet but I must say this one is very poorly done. The reasoning on most of your points is seriously flawed. Let me explain why;
Better luck next time, young man!
Edited on January 3, 2012 at 4:57amDec '11
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
I don't know if Romney can win the general election, but l know he's a total phony.
Let's look at recent history: George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush were phony conservatives and they won 3 out of 4 elections. On the other hand, Bob Dole and John McCain were phony conservatives and they lost.
So phony conservatives won 3 out of 6 elections. That would seem to give Romney a 50/50 chance - except for the fact that (a) he's more obviously phony than the Bush's and (b) he's Mormon.
Aug '10
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Nobody's Perfect: I don't know if Romney can win the general election, but l know he's a total phony.
Let's look at recent history: George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush were phony conservatives and they won 3 out of 4 elections. On the other hand, Bob Dole and John McCain were phony conservatives and they lost.
So phony conservatives won 3 out of 6 elections. That would seem to give Romney a 50/50 chance - except for the fact that (a) he's more obviously phony than the Bush's and (b) he's Mormon. · Jan 2 at 8:16pm
Hmmmm, any connection between these two points in your mind?
Oct '10
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
All politicians are phonies.
Oct '10
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
All politicians are phonies.
Dec '11
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Hmmmm, any connection between these two points in your mind?
No, but let's be honest about the elephant in the living room. There are almost certainly many independent voters who are uncomfortable with Mormonism. Are there enough of them to cost Romney a key state or two? I don't know. Do you?
Jul '10
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
EThompson
Michael Tee:
Who cares if you drive off the cliff at 200 or 20 mph? As Mark Steyn pointed out this unsustainable debt will cause "Mad Max on I-95" in ten, twenty or thirty years. I'd rather it happen sooner rather than later. Then we can rebuild.
Perhaps you do not own an established business or a stock portfolio? ·
This matters little. There are bigger issues in America than my stock portfolio.
If you think like this, there's a website called "The Nation" you should look into because you are certainly not a conservative as one who sees beyond his own experience. That viewpoint, frankly is pathetic for anyone on planet Earth.
Oh, my stock portfolio will mature in 20 years. Best delay the Fall of America until 2035. Is what you're saying? Because I find in my experience that there are causes greater than my own self. Perhaps you don't...
Oct '10
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Remember when National Review and Rush Limbaugh sang the praises of Mitt Romney during the 2008 primaries in order to stop the aspiring ‘Rino in Chief’ John McCain? I have two questions—why was Romney so acceptable then, and not now, and 2) who is better in the current field?
Remember 2008 when all of the other Republican candidates hated Romney because of his bare knuckle campaign commercials? Look at Newt Gingrich crying like a school girl to the media because of Romney’s super-pac ad campaign. I want a bare knuckle politician to go up against Obama and the Media. Ann Coulter is right—Romney is the best out of the current field of candidates.