Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
In the GOP nomination fight, Mitt Romney’s viability has been considered almost a foregone conclusion. Columnists such as David Brooks, Ann Coulter and David Frum have touted Romney as the only candidate capable of unseating Obama. Even Romney’s more conservative supporters have usually relied on Romney’s electability to win supporters away from more conservative alternatives. However, Romney’s electability is not as certain as it seems. For one, Romney has not been able to win a large amount of support within his own party. Despite hitting the campaign trail well before his opponents, Romney’s support still hovers at 25%. For all of his efforts, Romney’s nomination is still opposed by 75% of his own party, not a great number for a candidate who is supposed to unite his party come general election time and hardly proof positive that he has the nomination locked up.
Romney’s supporters usually argue that Mitt is the only candidate capable of winning over Independents and beating Obama in the general election. Romney does have good poll numbers against Obama in a hypothetical general election match-up. Unfortunately, such polls this early are usually meaningless. In January of 2008, John McCain was leading Barack Obama by as much as 12 points in a hypothetical match-up. Early polling in 2004 showed John Kerry ahead of George W. Bush by as much as 7. Furthermore, the idea that more liberal Republicans can win over Independents better than conservative Republicans is empirically denied. The Tea Party influenced GOP won 55% of moderate votes in 2010. The GOP only earned the support of 43% of Independents when the “electable” John McCain was running in 2008. In swing states, Tea Party candidates do very well among self described Independent/Other voters. In 2010, Tea Party candidates in the swing states of Florida, Colorado, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio captured a majority of self-described Independent/Other votes. In Florida, conservative Tea Partier Marco Rubio trounced liberal Republican turned Independent Charlie Crist among Independents 51% to 38%. The equation that moderate Republican=Independent support simply does not add up.
The biggest problem I see with Romney’s supposed electability is his inability to fire up the conservative base of the party. If the base decides it won’t knock on doors or make phone calls for Romney, he will have a very hard time getting elected. Worse, if the base flat out refuses to vote for Romney like it did in for McCain, Romney won’t stand a chance. Maybe this won’t happen and Romney could still win. Unfortunately, counting on the base to hold their nose didn’t work for John Kerry in 2004, it didn’t work for John McCain in 2008. Can it work for Mitt Romney in 2012?
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Aug '10
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Beware the ineluctable inelectable.
May '10
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
As always, Romney's electability must be evaluated relative to the others in the Republican primary. Here, the task of arguing against Romney's electability becomes more difficult.
Try it; you'll see.
May '10
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Wait, over time he's averaged highest in the polls, but he, and not the other choices suck? Can you explain that to me, please?
Mar '11
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
I agree 100% with this post.
And yes, some of the not-Romneys are more electable.
Jun '10
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
If Mitt Romney is the nominee, then love for Mitt will have little to do with firing up the Republican base. Obama can fire up the Republican base all by himself. I'm starting to like Romney a lot more, now that's he's the leading Not-Ron-Paul.
Jan '11
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Actually, his electability to national office is relative to the Democrat opponent.
In any case, he's loosing in his own party, and, if nominated, he'll lose in the general election.
Republican bosses, like Lugar and Hatch, seem to want to loose national elections, as though they're happy with where they fit in the scheme of things. I imagine it's damned comfortable being a senator in a safe seat.
May '11
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
I really don't think the argument for Romney's electability is rooted in anything deeper than his presidential bearing/CEO persona. It certainly is not rooted in his history of electoral success or his proven ability to win the center or left over to himself: the only time he did this was in his run for Governor in Massachusetts, and then he had to-as Ann Coulter would have us believe-fool liberals into voting for him by claiming to be one. I don't buy it-certainly not as an argument to distinguish him from Newt, Huntsman, Santorum or Perry.
It remains a mystery to me why the other campaigns are not doing more to challenge this narrative as the perception of electability appears to be Romney's biggest strength.
Mar '11
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
All arguments that Romney is the most "electable" candidate seem to boil down to "he doesn't frighten anyone."
Apr '11
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
If the election is about Obama, the base will turn out, but newspaper sales will be low. The media desperately want someone exciting, who will say amazing things and keep people wanting to know what the latest craziness was (supporters and opponents alike). They try hard to find exciting scandals about Romney, but they simply can't. Making the arguments about cutting spending, preventing unions from using garnished wages for political purposes, Obamacare as it applies to them and their community, and the free market is exciting enough to round up supporters (many of whom will be volunteering for Congressional and state races instead of Presidential, but that's fine).
The conservative base is already fired up about this stuff. The liberal base is not fired up about re-electing Obama; the enthusiasm gap is huge, and has been despite the lack of a GOP nominee. Soft speaking, steady, conservatism with a focus on spending cuts, without excessive excitability, and with a radical progressive opponent worked well for Harding and Coolidge (the last MA governor to become POTUS); in many ways better than any other C20 GOP president.
Jun '10
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Raw Prawn
All arguments that Romney is the most "electable" candidate seem to boil down to "he doesn't frighten anyone." · Jan 2 at 4:15pm
Obama frightened me too, and I was right.
Apr '11
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
He's not as good as the mythical white knight who will come to save us all. There is, of course, no serious argument that he's doing less well in the primaries than any of the candidates who have risen and fallen already. The big hope for the current field (assuming you're not a Paul chap) would have to be Santorum, who has not yet fallen. Perhaps he won't?
Or maybe there'll be a scandal, and he'll fall too... Quite telling that that's not an argument you hear about Romney, isn't it?
Apr '11
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
The 43% of independent votes that McCain won in 2008 is probably the absolute best that the Republicans could have hoped for that year. The electoral environment was absolutely horrendous, especially running against a "historic" blank slate candidate.
Aug '10
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Your point about early polls is spot on. Obama's handlers have the next few months of primary season to cook up their new grand slogan, which will then be relayed ad nauseum, without critical thought, by his battered but belligerent media lapdogs. What will polling look like once Obama starts spending some of the $1 billion he's projected to raise for 2012?
Thought experiment: what will each GOP candidate's response be to the Hopeyness and Changeosity 2.0 campaign? Does Mitt Romney have something deep inside him to crush the next big Obama propaganda push... or would someone else be better for fighting back?
McCain was never the guy who could fight back in this manner, especially against a fellow Senator. Is Romney?
Apr '11
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
BlueAnt:
Hopeyness and Changeosity 2.0 campaign? Does Mitt Romney have something deep inside him to crush the next big Obama propaganda push... or would someone else be better for fighting back?
McCain was never the guy who could fight back in this manner, especially against a fellow Senator. Is Romney? · Jan 2 at 4:37pm
If you're looking for positive signs, the demolition of Gingrich in Iowa and the quick response times of the Romney campaign in the last few weeks should at least partly allay your fears.
May '10
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
I think that is overstating the case a little bit. Romney is not opposed by 75%, he is not preferred by 75%. One could argue that this is splitting hairs, but I think that the difference is significant. I may not prefer Romney (whereforeartthou Ryan/Rubio '12??), but that doesn't mean I oppose him. I would prefer none of these candidates, but I will eventually be pulling the lever for one of them over Obama.
That said, I oppose Ron Paul....
Edited on Jan 2 at 4:48pmMay '11
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
I keep hearing Romney's the only one who's electable. Electability? What does that even mean? What exactly does it look like? It's all a game: know-it-all pundits repeat it often enough, voters buy it perhaps unthinkingly, the polls then reflect it, and these same pundits repeat it with even greater certitude.
If you insist he is uniquely electable, then you should at least tell me why: Is it his electoral history? His looks? His unrivalled flexibility on the issues? His speaking style? His business success? His unmatched ability to swing PA, OH, WV, NM, or IN to the GOP column? His appeal to blue-collar workers, hispanics, suburbanites or faith-voters?
Dec '11
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
"The biggest problem I see with Romney’s supposed electability is his inability to fire up the conservative base of the party."
If the inevitable financial carnage wrought by four more years of a Marxist in the White House cannot motivate the conservative base, I honestly don't know what will.
(BTW, liked your Tebow post.)
Jul '10
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
This explains a lot. Read it, and weep.
I know plenty of people who sit out if Romney is the nominee.
ETA: Who cares if you drive off the cliff at 200 or 20 mph? As Mark Steyn pointed out this unsustainable debt will cause "Mad Max on I-95" in ten, twenty or thirty years. I'd rather it happen sooner rather than later. Then we can rebuild.
Edited on Jan 2 at 4:53pmMay '10
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Anon
In any case, he's loosing in his own party...
Who's winning?
May '10
Re: Mitt Romney, the Unelectable Electable?
Romney does kind of seem like our John Kerry, becoming the nominee because he seems electable, not because anyone likes him. But don't forget that it almost worked in 2004 - Kerry came pretty close to winning.
Of course, Bush faced massive headwinds that Obama won't (the media, Hollywood, late-night comics, antiwar protests).
My biggest fear about Romney is that he'll be made the face of "The 1%" by the idiot Occupiers, as if Obama wan't the darling of Wall St. last time around.