Mitt Romney's Electoral College Advantage
City Journal has posted my latest op-ed, which argues that the Electoral College gives Mitt Romney a slight advantage. That is, my analysis predicts that, if one candidate wins the popular vote while the other wins the Electoral College, then Mitt Romney is more likely to be the one who wins the Electoral College.
The main argument involves an analysis of "Political Quotients." Specifically, I find that Iowa, with an average political quotient of 50.7, is the state that is most representative of the U.S., which has an average political quotient of 50.4.
In 2008, Iowa was also the median state in the Electoral College. That is, suppose you ordered all the representatives of the Electoral College according to the PQ of the representative's state, starting with the lowest. In such an ordering, the first six members would the representatives from Utah (the nation's most conservative state), the next three members would be the representatives from Wyoming (the nation's second-most conservative state), and so on. Such a list would contain 538 members, and the 270th member (the number necessary to win a majority of the Electoral College) would be a representative from Iowa.
In 2012, however, the median PQ state shifted to Colorado, a slightly more conservative state than Iowa, with a PQ of 48.2. The reason: conservative states (those with PQs lower than Iowa's) gained six electoral votes in the last census. Thus, if the nation votes exactly 50-50, then Iowa would also be likely to vote almost exactly 50-50 (since its PQ is nearly the same as the nation's PQ). But Colorado would tilt toward Romney, and with increased conservative electoral representation, so would the Electoral College.
Other evidence of Romney's Electoral College advantage involves some recent polls. Using a nationwide sample, the RealClearPolitics average gives Obama a 2.6% lead over Romney.
Meanwhile, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, using a sample of voters from twelve swing states, gives Romney an eight-point lead. The average PQ of the twelve swing states happens to be almost exactly the PQ of the average Colorado voter. Thus, I argue, the twelve swing states are good predictor of how the Electoral College will vote.
Expect soon for liberals to complain about the unfairness of the Electoral College.
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Comments:
Jun '10
Re: Mitt Romney's Electoral College Advantage
It's GOOD to be the Swing.
Jun '10
Re: Mitt Romney's Electoral College Advantage
From your voice to God's ear.
Jun '12
Re: Mitt Romney's Electoral College Advantage
What do you mean, "soon"? They've been whining about it off and on at least since Bush v. Gore.
Mar '12
Re: Mitt Romney's Electoral College Advantage
Among other interesting aspects of such an analysis, it suggests why Republican governors and legislatures should fight to restrict welfare benefits (e.g., Obamacare's Medicaid increased subsidies). As long as the Democrat-voting welfare classes are attracted to deep blue states like CA, IL and NY, the Electoral College will continue to advantage conservatives, despite the "tax and tax, spend and spend, elect and elect" strategy of the Democrats.
Jul '10
Re: Mitt Romney's Electoral College Advantage
Liberals have long tried to create a groundswell of enthusiasm for the elimination of the Electoral College. They know the answer to continued election victories for them lies in the popular vote which can be easily achieved in several major population centers, i.e., large East and West Coast cities, together with a few Midwest and Southern cities. Since we do not hold Federal elections but rather by state, with respect to representation this would mean turning the Constitution on its ear and denying any say in the process to millions outside those centers. Tho, these days, what else is new?
(CW - Had this written, but before re-reading and posting it, had to run and put a ham in the oven. While I was gone, you beat me to it)
Jun '12
Re: Mitt Romney's Electoral College Advantage
barbara lydick: Liberals have long tried to create a groundswell of enthusiasm for the elimination of the Electoral College. They know the answer to continued election victories for them lies in the popular vote which can be easily achieved in several major population centers, i.e., large East and West Coast cities, together with a few Midwest and Southern cities. Since we do not hold Federal elections but rather by state, with respect to representation this would mean turning the Constitution on its ear and denying any say in the process to millions outside those centers. Tho, these days, what else is new?
(CW - Had this written, but before re-reading and posting it, had to run and put a ham in the oven. While I was gone, you beat me to it) · 6 minutes ago
That's OK... you went into more detail than I did.
Now, I wanna slice of ham! :D
Jul '10
Re: Mitt Romney's Electoral College Advantage
ConservativeWanderer
That's OK... you went into more detail than I did.
Now, I wanna slice of ham! :D · 4 minutes ago
Sure. Now if I can just figure out how to send it as an attachment to an email...
Re: Mitt Romney's Electoral College Advantage
Tim, the trouble with the RealClearPolitics average is that it does not screen for likely voters. Rasmussen, who does, puts Romney comfortably ahead. Who is more likely to be enthusiastic enough to get up and go vote -- the methamphetamine users on Food Stamps, or Republicans and Independents?
Jun '12
Re: Mitt Romney's Electoral College Advantage
Depends, if Obama successfully convinced the leeches that Romney wants to take away the EBT cards, they might get up and vote.
Apr '11
Re: Mitt Romney's Electoral College Advantage
There is a problem in that Rasmussen's likely voter screen is absurd. There is practically zero chance that the electorate on election day will be R+2, and no reputable pollster would use that as their LV screen. The numbers weren't that good for us even in 2010, an election in which the electorate was much older and whiter than it will be in November.
Edited on July 7, 2012 at 12:29amMar '11
Re: Mitt Romney's Electoral College Advantage
Somehow I doubt that the methamphetamine users on food stamps are enthusiastic enough to complete a telephone poll from CNN, either.
Apr '11
Re: Mitt Romney's Electoral College Advantage
Mendel
Somehow I doubt that the methamphetamine users on food stamps are enthusiastic enough to complete a telephone poll from CNN, either. · 28 minutes ago
You don't have to put on pants to do the CNN telephone poll. You do to vote. I think the Vote still has the higher barrier. But, hey. Without voter ID laws you can just have more dedicated Obama voters help the lazy vote for their own self interest.
Jun '12
Re: Mitt Romney's Electoral College Advantage
Valiuth
Mendel
Somehow I doubt that the methamphetamine users on food stamps are enthusiastic enough to complete a telephone poll from CNN, either. · 28 minutes ago
You don't have to put on pants to do the CNN telephone poll. You do to vote. I think the Vote still has the higher barrier. But, hey. Without voter ID laws you can just have more dedicated Obama voters help the lazy vote for their own self interest. · 0 minutes ago
Not if you vote absentee. You can do that in your underwear.
And it's worth noting that many of the Democrats' GOTV efforts have been focused on making it easier to vote absentee.